2009 KY Derby 135th edition; final post-position/odds p28

[Glimmerglass]

Florida Derby - field and ESPN note

The Grade 1 Florida Derby will be shown live on ESPN as part of the “NTRA Racing to the Kentucky Derby” series. (Sadly with Joe Tessitore at the anchor desk - help us all)

Coverage Saturday, March 28, from 5-6 p.m. ET

Race 10 - Gulfstream Park

58th running of the Florida Derby
Purse: $750,000
Grade 1
Distance/surface: 1 1/8 mi on dirt

PP - Horse (Jockey)

1 - Toby The Coal Man (Leparoux J R)
2 - Quality Road (Velazquez J R)
3 - Casey’s On Call (Baird E T)
4 - Dunkirk (Gomez G K)
5 - Sincero (Trujillo E)
6 - Theregoesjojo (Desormeaux K J)
7 - Danger to Society (Madrid M)
8 - Europe (Decarlo C P)
9 - Stately Character (Douglas R R)

All carry 122-lbs
Winner’s share: $450k, 2nd place $150k, 3rd place $75,000, 4th place $37,500 …

[Glimmerglass]

Wait - are two “off the trail” horses possible re-entries? Well maybe

Big Drama is running in the Swale Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream, and though his connections recently stated he is not under consideration for the Derby - he was even pulled from Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager - he has enough graded stakes earnings to get into the Derby if his connections have a change of heart should he run well in the Swale.

Square Eddie, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up, also is back in the picture, since his connections now say they will try to make the Derby with a colt who suffered an injury in January and has had one published work since.

He had his first work since being injured in January over the weekend, and trainer Doug O’Neill said an attempt will be made to make the Derby, improbable as that seems.

Hot and cold is the name of the game

[Linny]

Big Drama is probably best sprinting but he’s got alot of graded earnings so he could spoil things for someone. Square Eddie’s unproven on dirt and is coming off about a month on the sidelines.

Charitable Man will also try to make the Derby with 1 (yes, ONE) start at 3. He’s pointing for the Blue Grass.

[justalittlex]

We went out to see The (gorgeous) Pamplemousse work this morning. Turns out Pioneerof The Nile was working too but no one noticed! You can’t miss The Pamplemousse-- no other horse looks like him.

[lizathenag]

My money is on Theregoesjojo. Liked his run in the FoY.

[Filly85]

[QUOTE=Linny;3974510]
Big Drama is probably best sprinting but he’s got alot of graded earnings so he could spoil things for someone. Square Eddie’s unproven on dirt and is coming off about a month on the sidelines.

Charitable Man will also try to make the Derby with 1 (yes, ONE) start at 3. He’s pointing for the Blue Grass.[/QUOTE]

I’ve seen some crazy moves, but that one ranks on up there.

[pvinhod]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3970058]
I go away to Scottsdale for a week and the world changes - slightly

Luckily I did get to wager on the Lanes End Stakes (G2) while at Turway Park. I received a very healthy return on the D Wayne Lukas’ entry of Flying Private taking place. It looks like he’ll be pointed to one of remaining prep races to try and accumulate more earnings. His $94k or so in graded money won’t cut it otherwise.

So next will be either the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, or Lexington on April 18.

Winner Hold Me Back now with $282k in graded money will be there for the First Saturday in May. Quite possibly less likely for Bittle Road or West Side Bernie who is likely to run back in the Wood Memorial for one last shot.

IEAH is close to getting their Derby contender for 2009 and I don’t mean Patena or Stardom Bound but rather I Want Revenge - who races April 4 in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial and put in a very fast five-furlong drill in 58.20 seconds Sunday morning back at Hollywood Park. He’ll fly to NY on April 1st at which time it’s likely IEAH will own 50% of him.

I was somewhat shocked by the comments of whining trainers in regards to the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton winner (Shadwell’s Mafaaz) getting an automatic berth in the Derby. Where have these people been? Did they not hear before that CDI last year pledged this as a scheme to get more international talent, press, and wagering interest in the Derby?

The moans will likely calm down depending upon how Mafaaz does in what is expected to be one US-based prep race: Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Although that race since switching to poly has never been the same as it once was back in the day[/QUOTE]

There was a reason why Flying Private cost over $700K…

[Filly85]

[QUOTE=justalittlex;3974632]
We went out to see The (gorgeous) Pamplemousse work this morning. Turns out Pioneerof The Nile was working too but no one noticed! You can’t miss The Pamplemousse-- no other horse looks like him.[/QUOTE]

Here is the pretty boy. I’m jealous that you got to see him work. I bet it was nice out there at sunny SA.

I love how Larry Zapeye says ‘Little Pamplemousse’.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmiZsoc3Ih4

This work didn’t blow me away like his work before the Sham, but he still has a week. Fingers crossed.

[pvinhod]

Papa Clem

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3954894]
Keep in mind Old Fashioned finished eight lengths ahead of the third-place horse in the Rebel - so this isn’t exactly the shocking down in flames type of performance some suggest.

His biggest problem was on display in that race: the inability to chill out and hang loose, then use that conserved energy to clobber whoever might be left.

The $1M Arkansas Derby will tell far more if Old Fashioned has learned his lesson and developed in “playing the game”. Comments from Larry Jones on the loss:

Some next steps that are possible:

Musket Man, the Tampa Bay Derby winner, could head to the Illinois Derby, trainer Derek Ryan said.

Feisty Suances, who was second in the San Felipe, is possible for the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Darrell Vienna said.

Jeranimo, who was third in the San Felipe, could run in the Santa Anita Derby, the Illinois Derby, or the Blue Grass, trainer Mike Pender said.

Flying Pegasus, who was sixth, is going to “regroup,” trainer Ralph Nicks said, and is out of the Derby picture.

Pioneerof the Nile, the San Felipe winner, will come back in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 4.

Giant Oak, who was fourth in the Louisiana Derby, and Patena, who finished eighth, also are likely headed to the Blue Grass, their respective trainers said Monday.

Papa Clem, who was second in the Louisiana Derby, will ship to Hawthorne next week to prepare for the Grade 2, $500,000 Illinois Derby on April 4, trainer Gary Stute said Monday.

Friesan Fire will ship to Keeneland to train. He will either just train up until the Kentucky Derby or race in the Grade 1, $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11 to just get another race in him. They like to keep him busy and why not pick up a fat check

No word yet on Tampa Bay Derby flops General Quarters and Hello Broadway with next steps.[/QUOTE]

Papa Clem is an intriguing sort. He wouldn’t let Terrain by in deep stretch even when the win was out of the question. Any chance Stute gets this one ready in IL?

[pvinhod]

[QUOTE=Filly85’;3974856]
I’ve seen some crazy moves, but that one ranks on up there.[/QUOTE]

Watch Charitable Man’s crazy move in the Futurity. Now THAt is raw talent…

[justalittlex]

Filly 85, my daughter and I are at 1:03 on Larry Zap’s vid. Love this horse!

[justalittlex]

and I came home and won every bet till race 8 on youbet. Some days are just like that!

[jennywho]

Imperial Council is still being pointed to the Wood. He returned to Payson Park in FL after running 2nd in the Gotham and if all goes well, will fly back to NY around the 1st of April. Although IWR was uber impressive in the Gotham I believe it was Haskin who said he hadn’t ever been that excited by a horse running 2nd by 8 1/2 lengths. For my boss’ sake I hope IC takes a big step forward in the Wood.

[Glimmerglass]

Charitable Man’s connections aren’t necessarily aiming for the Derby but will make a decision based upon the results of the Blue Grass. ESPN - March 21, 2009

Charitable Man worked five furlongs in 1:00.40. McLaughlin continues to point Charitable Man, who is undefeated in two starts but idle since September, for the Blue Grass on April 11.

“It’s a tough decision and difficult to figure what the right thing to do is,” McLaughlin said. “He’ll be ready to run on the fourth, but I thought the Blue Grass would be an easier race for him and that he would also bounce back quicker coming off the Polytrack if we should decide to go on to the Kentucky Derby.”

He ranks 18th with $150,000 in graded earnings. So even a 3rd place in the Blue Gass might be enough to make him guaranteed a gate at the Derby.

[Filly85]

[QUOTE=justalittlex;3974983]
and I came home and won every bet till race 8 on youbet. Some days are just like that![/QUOTE]

Congrats! I’ll have days where I get on a roll, and somedays where I stop after the first race because I know it isn’t going to be a going day for me.

Have fun around the Pamplemousse! He is such a cool horse!

[Glimmerglass]

Wait - some are just now grasping the math and get it that no matter how talented Dunkirk is as the thought to be second coming of Big Brown, Barbaro, or Shergar … if he doesn’t win the Florida Derby he won’t make the Kentucky Derby? I’m shocked!

Courier-Journal 3-26-09"Ky. Derby hopes ride on Fla. Derby purse"

The colt, a son of Unbridled’s Song and out of Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Status, must win Saturday to ensure a spot in the May 2 Derby. The Florida Derby purse was reduced from $1 million to $750,000 this year, and the runner-up will earn only $150,000, instead of last year’s $200,000. Having only $150,000 would be cutting it close to make the Kentucky Derby.

I’llmore apt to wager that he doesn’t win and thus won’t even be in the Kentucky Derby. Nothing personal but the odds are just too long which some are just getting. There is no Illinois Derby makeup or some last minute G3 race he’ll attempt to earn the money. However if he does win then all the props in the world to him … it all makes for a very interesting race.

[Glimmerglass]

And thanks for playing “Road to the Derby”- you’re no longer on it Mr Fantasy based upon skipping the Wood Memorial, thus off the Kentucky Derby trail

As his namesake song says:

[i]

You are the one who can make us all glad
But doing that, you break down in tears
Please don’t be sad, if it was a straight life you had
We wouldn’t have known you all these years[/i]

Up next for him: Withers Stakes (Grade 3) April 25 and possibly the Big Apple Triple which was won by his brother Tin Cup Chalice

[Glimmerglass]

I hadn’t seen this before … reportedly it is who they claim but I have my doubts

OBS video: The Pamplemousse working out prior to sale.

[Glimmerglass]

Desert Party - the heavy favorite - is upset in his final prep in Duabi the UAE Derby by Regal Ransom …

[Glimmerglass]

Gulfstream’s Grade 2 Swale Stakes for $150k at 7F with Big Drama and This Ones for Phil was impressive. Ding, dong to the finish between those two. New track record no less!

However a DQ for Big Drama (bumping in the stretch) dropping him to second and bumping up TOFP to get the win. The track record tagged to Big Drama remains.