2009 KY Derby 135th edition; final post-position/odds p28

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=jennywho;3837093]
Does anyone have a link to the nominations for the Bob Lewis stakes?[/QUOTE]

Santa Anita hasn’t posted it yet - when they do it will be available here in pdf. It looks like nominations go up to an include Feb 1st La Habra Stakes (Grade III) and the Bob Lewis is Feb 7th.

One dark horse that could be in it will be the $2,700 purchase of All Staint who won opening day Dec 26th

Regarding All Saint

He had paid a grand total of $2,700 for All Saint at the 2007 Barretts October mixed sale and had watched the colt produce his biggest moment as an owner.

All Saint gave Gamez and trainer Triphon Dahl their first stakes win in the Champion Stakes, for California-breds. The colt will appear in a graded stakes at Santa Anita in coming weeks - the $100,000 San Rafael Stakes over a mile for 3-year-olds on Jan. 17, or the $200,000 Robert Lewis Stakes over 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 7.

While Gamez, 31, and Dahl, 44, are virtually unknown in Southern California racing circles, Gamez said his colt has been the source of attention from other horsemen in the last year. He said he turned down offers of $100,000 before All Saint’s debut and $300,000 in the fall.

“When he first started working we got offers like $100,000,” Gamez said. "When we didn’t sell people said, ‘You guys are crazy.’ We knew he was special.

“After he ran on the turf at Hollywood Park, I got another call offering $300,000. We turned that down. We’ve never had anything like that and we didn’t want to give him away.”

I wouldn’t say buying a horse for $2,700 and getting an offer for $300k is “giving him away”

[Glimmerglass]

One of the important graded stakes prep races is this Friday (a rarity) at Gulfstream: $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2) with a lot of firepower for a relatively small field of 7.

Iroquois Stakes (G3) winner Capt. Candyman Can, the top two finishers of the Nashua Stakes (G3) - Break Water Edison and Hello Broadway - plus stakes winners Bee Cee Cee and Salo Jak, allowance winner Rocketing Returns, and maiden winner Z Day.

Nick Zito trains Rocketing Returns:

“I think this is the way to go with him, running in the Hutcheson instead of the Holy Bull on Saturday,” said Zito, who trains Rocketing Returns for Charlotte Weber’s Live Oak Planation. “I love the fact he had that last race at Calder. It does horses really good to have a start over that track, and I really think he has a chance to improve and be a nice horse. And hopefully he’ll prove down the road that he’s going to be more than just a sprinter.”

[Glimmerglass]

Well at least he’s no Green Monkey

Next step for maiden victor (Gulfstream Park Race 5, Jan 24) Dunkirk won’t be in a graded stakes race:

Trainer Todd Pletcher said he is inclined to come back in an allowance race with Dunkirk, the expensive auction purchase who defeated maidens in his debut on Saturday.

Dunkirk, 3, a colt by Unbridled’s Song who cost $3.7 million, rallied from off the pace to win sprinting. Pletcher said Dunkirk would be pointed to a two-turn race for his next start. He got a Beyer Speed Figure of 77 on Saturday.

“He gives me the impression that the farther he goes, the better he’ll be, considering the way he finishes his works and the way he gallops out after his works,” Pletcher said.

No Green Monkey but then again anyone forget about Pletcher trained Tabor-owned $3.2M filly Charming from last spring? Eh, nothing to write home about

[Glimmerglass]

No Mr Fantasy in the 8th today … All Live Racing Cancelled on Wednesday January 28, 2009

Due to inclement weather there will be no live racing at Aqueduct today.

The field isn’t announced yet for the 20th running of the Holy Bull Stakes (grade 3) on Saturday but the nominations are here

The field will likely include two top Derby trail contenders: Beethoven and West Side Bernie as well as Bear’s Rocket, Bruce N Autumn, Danger to Society, Idol Maker, Nowhere to Hide, Rockland, and Stately Character.

Nowhere to Hide, trained by Zito is coming off a one-mile maiden win at Calder. So this is a huge step up but Nick has confidence he can run at this level.

Rockland is trained by Michael Matz (who will likely run Nicanor the same day) to which quipped this about the Holy Bull runner

“I had planned on running him on dirt last time, but the race didn’t go, so I ran him on turf,” Matz said. “I’m not too worried about the distance. I don’t think it will be a problem with the horse.”

[b]The only problem Matz has with Rockland is getting near him.

“He’ll bite you in a second,” Matz said.[/b]

Let’s hope we don’t see a reprise of this ‘The Savage’ 1980 running of the the Tremont Stakes which was dropped last year by NYRA!

[Glimmerglass]

Columnist John Pricci advocates that IEAH’s filly ‘Stardom Bound’ should be pointed to the Kentucky Derby.

I rooted for Eight Belles last year to be pointed to the Derby, with no regrets, due to her size and control of prior competitors. A few years before that it was Halfbridled but as for jumping on the lets-get-another-filly-in-the-Derby bandwagon I’m not there. Unless IEAH runs SB in a match up against the boys I think it would be unwise.

[Glimmerglass]

The two big graded-stakes prep races on tap - both are on HRTV but if you’re near a computer you can listen via Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN) on the web at http://www.horseracingradio.net/

Friday Jan 30th at Gulfstream Park:

$150,000 Hutcheson Stakes - Grade 2
Race 8 off at 4:43 p.m. EST
Distance: 7 Furlongs

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, ML Odds

1. Break Water Edison (KY), Alan Garcia, 120, 3/1
2. Bee Cee Cee (FL), Cornelio H. Velasquez, 120, 15/1
3. Capt. Candyman Can (KY), Julien R. Leparoux, 120, 3/1
4. Hello Broadway (KY), Edgar S. Prado, 114, 5/2
5. Salo Jak (FL), Javier Santiago, 120, 8/1
6. Rocketing Returns (FL), Eibar Coa, 116, 5/1
7. Z Day (KY), John R. Velazquez, 114, 6/1

Saturday Jan 31st at Gulfstream Park:

$150,000 Holy Bull Stakes - Grade 3
Race 7 off at 4:12 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey

1. Bruce N Autumn (KY), 114, Edgar S. Prado
2. Danger to Society (KY), 114, Robby Albarado
3. Bear’s Rocket (KY), 114, Kent J. Desormeaux
4. Saratoga Sinner (KY), 114, Julien R. Leparoux
5. El Crespo (KY), 114, Javier Castellano
6. Rockland (KY), 114, Jose Lezcano
7. Stately Character (KY), 120, Herb McCauley
8. Idol Maker (KY), 114, John R. Velazquez
9. Nowhere to Hide (KY), 114, Alan Garcia
10. West Side Bernie (KY), 122, Elvis Trujillo
11. Beethoven (KY), 122, Calvin H. Borel

[Glimmerglass]

Mr Fantasy, unable to race in that allowance Wed (1-28) with all racing cancelled, will run Sunday Feb 1st in the 7th race at 1 1/16 mi in a $44k allowance against 9 others.

Old Fashioned showed in his workout Thursday (at Fair Grounds) why he is one of the top 3-yr old horses around: out of the gate he did 5-furlongs in a smoking 58.80 and galloping out six furlongs in just more than 1:11 seconds!

By comparison working out also was Indygo Mountain who was 1.20 seconds SLOWER at the same 5-furlong distance on the same track at roughly the same time.

For those looking at the Old School insights into power comparisons there is the just release 2008 Experimental Free Handicap from The Jockey Club. It doesn’t do much for me but oh well …

The Experimental Free Handicap, published annually by The Jockey Club since 1935, is a weight-based assessment of the previous year’s leading 2-year-olds, with the weights compiled for a hypothetical race at 11⁄16 miles on dirt.

A sampling:

[i]Colts and geldings

126 — Midshipman; 124 — Vineyard Haven; 123 — Square Eddie; 122 — Street Hero; 121 — Old Fashioned; 120 — Donativum, Pioneerof the Nile; 119 — Westphalia; 118 — Coronet of a Baron, I Want Revenge, Terrain; 117 — Big Drama, Charitable Man; 116 — Beethoven, Believe in Hope, Chocolate Candy, Del Conte, Run Away and Hide, Southern Exchange, West Side Bernie; continued[/i]

[i]FILLIES

124 — Stardom Bound; 120 — Dream Empress; 117 — Laragh, Sky Diva, Springside; 116 — Doremifasollatido, Mani Bhavan, Maram, Rachel Alexandra; 115 — Heart Shaped, Wynning Ride; 114 — Dave’s Revenge; 113 — C. S. Silk, Evita Argentina, Four Gifts, Jardin, Palacio de Amor, Persistently; continued[/i]

With Stardom Bound at 124 she has a higher Experimental Free Handicap then last year’s highest filly, Indian Blessing, who was assigned 123.

In case you’re wondering last year’s list (2007)did NOT have Eight Belles in their calculations, but her stablemate Proud Spell was tagged a 119.

The BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin has produced for Jan 29, 2009 his “Top 70” list for right now:

His listing of 70 are here with comments - a quick summary of the top 12

1–Hello Broadway
2–Giant Oak
3–Break Water Edison
4–Old Fashioned
5—Patena
6–Square Eddie
7–Pioneerof the Nile
8–Friesan Fire
9—Terrain
10–Capt. Candyman Can
11–Imperial Council
12–Shafted

Some of the other highly thought of horses on other’s lists are ranked as follows:

23-The Pamplemousse
48- Nowhere to Hide
49 -This Ones for Phil
68 - Mr Fantasy
69 - Dunkirk
70 - Haynesfield

Unranked: Nicanor – Barbaro’s brother has had more publicity than any maiden other than perhaps The Green Monkey. Makes his debut in same maiden race as Dubinsky.

[Glimmerglass]

$150,000 Hutcheson Stakes - Grade 2 - results

1st - Capt. Candyman Can (KY), Julien R. Leparoux
2nd - Hello Broadway (KY), Edgar S. Prado
3rd - Bee Cee Cee (FL), Cornelio H. Velasquez
4th - Salo Jak (FL), Javier Santiago

‘Break Water Edison’ long thought to be an impressive horse going into the Derby trail was never a player and was a big flop.

‘Capt.’ was the clear victor with ‘Broadway’ close and then the rest

[Glimmerglass]

Whoa and the upsets continue on the Road to the Kentucky Derby …

$150,000 Holy Bull Stakes - Grade 3
(Nowhere to Hide scratched)

1st - Sartoga Sinner with Julien “White Hot” Leparoux up
2nd - Bear’s Rocket
3rd - West Side Bernie
4th - Beethoven with Calvin Borrel and a bad post-position

Saratoga Sinner paid $26.80 to win … and Bear’s Rocket paid $27.50 for place

[Glimmerglass]

Following Friday’s running of the Hutcheson and Saturday’s Holy Bull a few re-adjusted Top lists - example:

Gary West (Star-Telegram - TX) 1-31-09 “The Sinner and the Holy Bull shake things up”

abridged top 20 list following tihs weekend’s actions

(Not: I retained West’s remarks tied to Break Water Edison who bomed)

1. Old Fashioned

2. Giant Oak
3. Hello Broadway
4. Capt. Candyman Can
5. Imperial Council
6. Vineyard Haven
7. Pioneerof The Nile
8. Friesan Fire
9. It Happened Again
10. Patena
    11. Break Water Edison – His inconsistency is alarming; he’s obviously better than that Hutcheson effort.
11. Quality Road
12. Midshipman
13. Indygo Mountain
14. Silver City
15. Poltergeist
16. Notonthesamepage
17. Haynesfield
18. West Side Bernie
19. Beethoven

[Glimmerglass]

Worth noting that Mr. Fantasy easily crushed his rivals today without having been asked for anything in Race 7 at the Big A by 8 1/2 lengths over a firmly encouraged ‘Legal Consent’. “The Mig” looks like he’s sitting on his Derby horse

1 1/16 mi in 1:45.33 … his dam sire of Spectacular Bid is great to see just like his 1/2 brother Tin Cup Chalice

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3850806]
Worth noting that Mr. Fantasy easily crushed his rivals today without having been asked for anything in Race 7 at the Big A by 8 1/2 lengths over a firmly encouraged ‘Legal Consent’. “The Mig” looks like he’s sitting on his Derby horse ;)[/QUOTE]

What Steve Haskin said today about Mr Fantasy

We have an exciting New York-bred to watch in Mr. Fantasy, who certainly looks like he’ll be just as formidable against open company. Coming off a 10 1/4-length maiden score going six furlongs against state-breds, he stretched out to 1 1/16 miles and overcame post 10 to romp again, this time by 8 1/2 lengths. The son of E Dubai has a smooth, efficient stride and just gallops his opponents into the ground without raising a sweat, winning with his ears pricked. This colt can flat-out run.

Oh and regarding the once-written up saga of Paul Pompa having lightening strike twice with Big Brown last year and then ‘Well Positioned’ who had a 14 1/2 maiden victory … errr no.

Well Positioned proved that a maiden victory, no matter how impressive, is no guarantee a horse will come even close to duplicating it against winners. … In Saturday’s one-mile allowance race, he never ran a lick and quickly dropped right out of the race and likely off the Derby trail.

[system]

Garcia

The connections still want Alan Garcia as his regular rider. Garcia flew up to ride Wed before the card was cancelled but had conflicts in FLA for Sunday so the mig got the call.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=el camino;3853082]
The connections still want Alan Garcia as his regular rider. Garcia flew up to ride Wed before the card was cancelled but had conflicts in FLA for Sunday so the mig got the call.[/QUOTE]

Interesting.

Sounds like Richard Migliore did everything right though to make this not only a win but build further confident and let him mature some more.

Migliore continued with his praise of Mr. Fantasy after the race. “He has a great mind about him. Turning for home, he knew he was in control so he sort of eased up a bit; I just squeezed my legs on him a little bit and he took off. He’s a really special horse.” Certainly, high praise from a man who’s won more than four thousand races during his career.

[Glimmerglass]

Next race (ungraded) to watch Saturday’s $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes at the Big A. The final entries will be determined Wed but anticipated: Haynesfield, Hehasnosay, Peace Town, Mike from Queens, and Cellar Dweller.

Mr. Fantasy, who earned a 93 Beyer for his 2nd start/victory on Sunday, will start next in the Grade 3 $250,000 Gotham Stakes March 7th

At the Fair Grounds on Saturday (Feb 7) will be the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes on Saturday. In that field will be Giant Oak who is ranked in the top 10 for many, and Larry Jones’ proven Friesan Fire

NOLA Feb 2, 2009 - a field of 13 for the Risen Star

Here’s the field, in post-position order:
1 - Map of the World
2 - Indygo Mountain
3 - Nowhere to Hide
4 - It Happened Again,
5 - Uno Mas
6 - Friesan Fire
7 - Giant Oak
8 - Dumar
9 - Code of Honour
10 - Soul Warrior
11 - Summer’s Empire
12 - Flying Pegasus
13 - Au Moon

[Glimmerglass]

Off the Kentucky Derby trail: Saratoga Sinner who just won the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes.

Trainer Eddie Kenneally of Louisville termed the chip a small one and said the Harlan’s Holiday colt could resume racing as early as July or August, with Saratoga’s Travers Stakes a potential goal.

[Filly85]

Glimmerglass, I just wanted to say thank you for keeping all of us updated on what is going on!

[justalittlex]

Thanks from me, too. You do a great job of sharing information.

[Glimmerglass]

No thanks needed - it is just interesting to see how folks (me included) try to read the tea leaves to see who will still be standing when the big showdown occurs in May.

Another West Coast contender: Mr. Hot Stuff who is a full brother to Colonial John, something that shouldn’t be held against him

He’s still not yet nominated to the Kentucky Derby and was 0-4 in his first 4 starts but on Sunday broke his maiden at Santa Anita race 5 (Feb 1st) at 1 mi and earned a 95 BSF for the effort.

A strategy shift led to the turnaround by Mr. Hot Stuff. “The difference was in the race before when Corey [Nakatani] took him back and let him finish,” Harty said, adding that the Jan. 17 third-place finish changed him. “You could see the difference at the barn.”

A moody colt usually found hiding at the back of his stall, Mr. Hot Stuff underwent a personality shift.

“He became confident, and would stand at the front of the stall,” Harty said.

It appeared he wanted to run again, and Harty wheeled him back just two weeks later. A former run-off, Mr. Hot Stuff performed Sunday like a seasoned pro.

[Glimmerglass]

Just a curious question - do trainers often do the driving of horses between tracks? Forget Brook Ledge or Sally Vans, we’re talking DIY

Once again Larry Jones seems to do it all. From being the trainer to also an exercise rider to now hauler: with his move of Old Fashioned from Fair Grounds to Oaklawn

Old Fashioned vanned up from New Orleans, with his trainer, Larry Jones, at the wheel. The horse’s arrival was delayed a day, mostly because of some wet roads in Louisiana on Monday.

“He’s precious cargo,” said Jones, who wanted the best travel conditions possible for the nine-hour haul to Hot Springs.

Rick Porter, who owns the undefeated horse, said that Ramon Dominguez has the mount for the Southwest. Dominguez rode Old Fashioned to victory in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in his last start Nov. 29.

Off-topic but an interesting read from loooooong ago regarding horses and transport. New York Times July 28, 1901 “Race Horse Transportation” (pdf file) an excerpt

In olden days, not long before Teddington won, the task of getting horses from their training grounds to Epsom was a very serious business. Before Lord George Bentinck had his horse van constructed, all race horses – to be strictly correct, nearly all – had to go by road, and were walked from place to place at the rate of about twenty miles a day.

Note: Teddington won the Ascot Gold Cup in 1853