Is it too late for horses further down the eligibility list to make the gate if Malagacy or Girvin bail?
Even if Girvin makes the gate, I wouldn’t be putting $ on him.
I think others can still get in up until Oaks Day. I’m still hoping for Sonneteer to make it, assuming that they would run him if they did get the shot.
I wouldn’t bet on Girvin, either. Malagacy seen live in Arkansas did not impress me much. I like McCracken, Gormley, Sonneteer, and Classic Empire if he’s in a good mood.
AGREED!!
Am I the only one who is not yippy-skippy about any of the TC contenders this year? I am still waiting for someone to wow me…
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I’m with you smoofox. The closest I was to yippee skippy was Mastery and once he was out, no one else has impressed me…
I do have Derby favorites but not that I think that any of them are sparkling 3 year olds.
As tweeted out by the Downey Profile this afternoon (4/28): Thunder Snow is still listed as a “tentative” arrival for the Kentucky Derby by Churchill Downs.
My guess is that Royal Mo will get in, for example, and he’s 23rd with points. Will Pletcher have 5 runners if Master Plan [at # 25] makes it with defections … you never know.
I cited this in the first posting about Irish War Cry’s breeders/owner Isabelle de Tomaso. She has always been vocal that she’s really more focused on getting to and winning the Monmouth Park race honoring her father - the Haskell Invitational.
While I expect him to run in the Derby I frankly wouldn’t be shocked if only ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness and Belmont. Now if he wins the Kentucky Derby by daylight, drawing away then you can bet your crab cakes he’ll be at Old Hilltop.
The best newspaper headline I read this week was an article on Irish War Cry that read: “The Kentucky Derby is a prep race for Irish War Cry” 
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Glad I am not alone in those thoughts, WMW!
I may have to pick a long shot and see what happens… but the days of a Canonero II coming out of nowhere are long gone.
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Glimmer, love the comment about the Derby being a prep race for IWC 
This year, to me, not much is “exciting” on the colt side. I love Unique Bella but gotta get her back on the track.
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SUNDAY, APRIL 30, 2017 GORMLEY PUTS
IN UNCONVENTIONAL
FINAL DERBY WORK
http://i.bloodhorse.com/daily-app/pdfs/BloodHorseDaily-20170430.pdf
PDF file, page 9. Look who he worked with.
I have such a soft spot for Thunder Snow. I don’t know what it is. Every time I see a photo of him I just think “Darn, I really like that horse.” I know Dubai shippers traditionally don’t do well, and he probably runs better on turf, but for some reason I find him very appealing.
I also like Irish War Cry but I haven’t gotten the chance to look at some of the others yet. I have to like Always Dreaming, just for the name. (I’m always dreaming, myself.) I’ll have a pick for Derby day, I swear.
I saw a video of Thunder Snow unloading, and he is a grand-looking fellow.
For some reason, Irish War Cry just doesn’t do much for me. Could be wrong, of course. I know why Always Dreaming doesn’t do much for me, and that’s because of the trainer. I shouldn’t hold that against the horse, but trained by several others, I’d like him a lot better.
I’m hoping for big odds on Sonneteer, though I’ll only put $2 across the board (betting is like an intellectual exercise for me; haven’t got the financial leeway yet to do it at a level actually expecting a profit, so I’m strictly a small timer). I know he’s a maiden, but he sure looked good in the paddock in Arkansas, and the way he runs, one of these days, he is going to get there. Hopefully at big odds with my $2 on him. I might even go all out and take a stab at a 10-cent superfecta box.
McCracken apparently worked well today. I like McCracken for all the logical reasons you’re supposed to pick horses. I’ll have $2 on him, too.
It looks like this is the final entry field - including the Also Eligible (AE) - with named riders. Steve Byk assembled this:
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Always Dreaming looks like a handful - all the photos and vids I see he is a difficult in his works. They tried to change it up this morning but (per the DRF): “Always Dreaming went slower while galloping in draw reins but he bucked several times and didn’t seem totally comfortable with them.”
Just curious… how much weight would you put (figurative, not literal ) to a horse that doesn’t appear comfortable working in draw reins but knowing they won’t actually race in them? I don’t recall Always Dreaming’s pre-race behavior to remember race time antics. Yes, those, I don’t like to see…
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Not sure if a horse being obstreperous during track work is an automatic red flag or not. Some of the best have hated any kind of workouts. We all know the stories of brilliant workers who just wilt when it comes to the afternoon racing. I still wouldn’t want to be Always Dreaming’s exercise rider.
Example here (photo by Frances J Karon/Trainer Magazine) of his work issues with Adele Bellenger up
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WiMzHXoAQD23L.jpg
An aside: Irish War Cry left Fair Hill training center at 5:30 AM today and should be at Churchill sometime late this afternoon or early evening.
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Sonneteer got a look at the track this morning and worked a bullet 4 furlongs, galloping out 5 in 59 3/5. He wasn’t working 59 3/5 but galloped out in 59 3/5. Some of the 5-furlong workers have been around and over 59; his gallop out was identical to Always Dreaming’s work time, for instance. I could be dead wrong, but this horse in the flesh and how he moves does not agree with his maiden status nor with his sprinter sire. I do think he has a real chance for a piece of the classics this year.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221324/maturing-sonneteer-fires-bullet-for-derby
Not sure if it means anything or not - honestly he’s not my Derby horse - with suggestive tender feet, but per the DRF:
Trainer Mark Casse said on Sunday that Classic Empire has been wearing glue-on shoes since he was re-shod.
What about the grand old standard that has stood the test of time in 134 consecutive Derbys - winners had to race at least once as a 2-year-old? 1882 Kentucky Derby hero Apollo did not race at 2yrs old after that crickets …
Didn’t race at 2: Battle of Midway.(first race Jan 21, 2017)
An aside but Irish War Cry’s breeding rights have already been sold and announced.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com…on-retirement/
The breeding rights to Irish War Cry have been purchased by a group of breeders and he will stand next to his sire at Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at the conclusion of his racing career, Bradley Weisbord, whose BSW Bloodstock brokered the deal, told TDN Monday. The group includes Hill ‘n’ Dale’s John Sikura, Glen Hill Farm’s Craig Bernick, SF Bloodstock, Colts Neck Stables, the China Horse Club, Bobby Flay, Sol Kumin and Vincent Viola.
China Horse Club (blah!) already tweeted out their own congratulations with IWC as being “part of the team” in reference to the horse and Kentucky Derby. That is completely untrue but hey we all sadly live in the era of alternative facts and premature self promotion.
The great thing about the Derby is it’s a 20 horse field so it’s really anybody’s race. The horses who tend to hang back and close like freight trains might not be able to do so (pending where they are in the pack) with the amount of traffic at the top of the stretch. Who gets a good break, gets the cleanest trip around the oval, has the best opportunity at the top of the stretch, and the best drive to the wire will win on Saturday. I think this year, more than any year prior; it is a complete crap-shoot.
Classic Empire is a good horse, we cant deny what he has won thus far but I am left a little bit “meh” about him this week in Kentucky. He has a good head on his shoulders but I still don’t think he’s going to come home first in a 20 horse field going 1 1/4.
I find it odd that Thunder Snow shipped to Kentucky so late. His first trip around the track will occur this morning. I will reserve judgment until I see him go this morning but that is a long plane ride and a lot of changes for the biggest American race which is in 4 days. I think I would’ve liked him more if he flew over here a week or two ago.
I think it is FABULOUS to see TWO CALUMET horses in the derby this year. HENCE is a beautiful animal with a great gallop on him. He is a stunning individual and if you watch him from the side profile in his blue bridle, he kind of looks like Big Red in his warm up! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5789wPBRjzk
MCRACKEN is one of my favorites for Saturday. He is a composed horse with a great race record behind him. He is all business. His works have been stellar.
ALWAYS DREAMING is my other favorite. He is a handful, a lose cannon but when he gets going in his works he is beyond impressive. Effortless, big sweeping stride. If he can handle the crowds on Saturday and not drag JV to the lead and wear himself out; I firmly believe this horse will come home first. Todd Pletcher is not my favorite trainer and I rarely root for his horses; but he’s a neat horse with a lot of potential. I think he will settle in a bit before Saturday.
PATCH is just a cool horse with a great story. he shows up to his morning works all business, ears pricked around the track
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