2017 Triple Crown

[Glimmerglass]

This weekend’s sole Kentucky Derby points awarding race is at Tampa Bay Downs. Will we see another meltdown of a leading contender like Classic Empire last week at Gulfstream but with McCraken this week? I doubt it.

At a record of 3-0-0, Ian Wilkes trained McCraken will make his season debut after concluding the previous campaign with wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and the Street Sense Stakes.

$250,000 Sam F. Davis S. (G3)
Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, February 11
Distance: 1 1/16m

PP. … Horse … Jockey … Trainer

1. … State of Honor … Julien R. Leparoux … Mark E. Casse
2. … King and His Court … Gary Boulanger … Mark E. Casse
3. … Fact Finding … John R. Velazquez … Todd A. Pletcher
4. … Chance of Luck … Ronald Dale Allen, Jr. … Gerald S. Bennett
5. … Six Gun Salute … Pablo Morales … Eoin G. Harty
6. … Wild Shot … Robby Albarado … George R. Arnold, II
7. … Tapwrit … Jose L. Ortiz … Todd A. Pletcher
   8. … McCraken … Brian Hernandez, Jr. … Ian R. Wilkes
8. … No Dozing … Daniel Centeno … Arnaud Delacour

[Where_sMyWhite]

Glimmer…

Ref

http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/showthread.php?505362-I-can-no-longer-edit-posts
for the many that share you editing challenges and

http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/showthread.php?508875-Update-on-NEW-SITE-upgrade-release-date!

for update status and FYI on the new software (yes, change is in the air ).

[mommy_peanut]

Classic Empire, abscess…

One possible reason for the dismal performance of Classic Empire… though I’ll wait to see how his next race goes before writing the Holy Bull off for him

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess

[ASB_Stars]

What is the COTH consensus on McCraken? He looked mighty impressive setting a NTR at Tampa Bay Downs, and he is 4 for 4.

[Shammy_Davis]

Any talk about No Dozing’s derby potential should be put to bed. Tapwrit was game at the finish. Other than that McCracken no surprise other than a track record on historically tricky Tampa Bay dirt.

[Glimmerglass]

I think with McCracken taking the stakes/track record he’ll vault rather high up on many people’s Derby list. As Shammy Davis alluded to - the Tampa Bay surface is often hard to judge where he’ll go from here.

If anyone is a Hansen fan you can keep your eye on Dr. Kendall Hansen’s part owned colt En Hanse (ugh what poor name) who is just one of a few off spring from the 2011 Derby contender’s US foals. He was exported to South Korea to stand. Skier Bode Miller owns the other part of the colt.

En Hanse won the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park by 3 1/2 lengths on Saturday at the distance of 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15.84 which was rather close to the track record of 1:15.35; He’ll almost certainly start in the Derby points awarding prep of Grade 3 Spiral Stakes (March 25) which gives a hefty 50-pts to the winner. Will he appear in the (non points awarding) John Battaglia Memorial on March 4 at Turfway Park? To be determined.

[Alibhai_s_Alibar]

More about Irish War Cry’s owner and the New Jersey connection: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/war-cry-owner-a-link-to-jersey-racings-glory-days/

[Shammy_Davis]

@Alibhai's Alibar

More about Irish War Cry’s owner and the New Jersey connection: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com…gs-glory-days/

Mark Casse is going avoid Irish War Cry from here on out. Smart thinking.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com…fferent-paths/

The great derby trainers know a winning heart makes a difference on the first Saturday in May. Didn’t work for Sham in 73, not taking anything away from his greatness, but no doubt Lucien Laurin was elated when Sham headed west after the Wood.

Motion must be thinking the same. Not sure if the “first to blink” theory really works in horse racing but caution is often the greater part of valor.

[mommy_peanut]

@Shammy Davis

Mark Casse is going avoid Irish War Cry from here on out. Smart thinking.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com…fferent-paths/

The great derby trainers know a winning heart makes a difference on the first Saturday in May. Didn’t work for Sham in 73, not taking anything away from his greatness, but no doubt Lucien Laurin was elated when Sham headed west after the Wood.

Motion must be thinking the same. Not sure if the “first to blink” theory really works in horse racing but caution is often the greater part of valor.

That’s from before CE popped an abscess. Latest report has Casse saying they may head back to Gulfstream.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess

[Shammy_Davis]

@mommy peanut

That’s from before CE popped an abscess. Latest report has Casse saying they may head back to Gulfstream.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess

Thanks for the update. Have to say, I am somewhat surprised. I would think that Casse would want a race to get CE solidly back on his winning ways. A head to head match up with IWC could backfire. I guess my thoughts that the San Felipe in March is the next highly competitive race needs to be revised.

[Amyy]

@CVPeg

Amyy- Congrats on Sheery Flattery’s placing. And here’s to continued good fortune in his career!

Thanks so much! He had a horrible trip. He came out of race well, so they’re going to wheel him back pretty quick. Probably on Saturday in the El Camino Real Derby. Hoping for a short field.

[Shammy_Davis]

@Glimmerglass

I think with McCracken taking the stakes/track record he’ll vault rather high up on many people’s Derby list. As Shammy Davis alluded to - the Tampa Bay surface is often hard to judge where he’ll go from here.

If anyone is a Hansen fan you can keep your eye on Dr. Kendall Hansen’s part owned colt En Hanse (ugh what poor name) who is just one of a few off spring from the 2011 Derby contender’s US foals. He was exported to South Korea to stand. Skier Bode Miller owns the other part of the colt.

En Hanse won the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park by 3 1/2 lengths on Saturday at the distance of 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15.84 which was rather close to the track record of 1:15.35; He’ll almost certainly start in the Derby points awarding prep of Grade 3 Spiral Stakes (March 25) which gives a hefty 50-pts to the winner. Will he appear in the (non points awarding) John Battaglia Memorial on March 4 at Turfway Park? To be determined.

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/…rs-improve-sam

Too early to jump on any bandwagon, but can’t help but see in Irish War Cry a colt with not only a big diesel engine but also a high acceleration transmission. Speed and classic character is a plus. Curlin must have been spitting genes no one was aware of. Not sure Classic Empire offers both plus is plagued with winning BC juvenile.
​​

[vineyridge]

Irish War Cry has Pretty Polly in tail female. She started a very productive branch of her female family, along with being one of the greatest race mares in history. On the bottom he has a VERY nice pedigree for the American classic distances.

FWIW, Curlin has a dam line with some some darned stout horses.

[mommy_peanut]

@Shammy Davis

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/…rs-improve-sam

Too early to jump on any bandwagon, but can’t help but see in Irish War Cry a colt with not only a big diesel engine but also a high acceleration transmission. Speed and classic character is a plus. Curlin must have been spitting genes no one was aware of. Not sure Classic Empire offers both plus is plagued with winning BC juvenile.
​​

I’m a big fan of IWC.
Will he make it to the Derby, let alone win it? Who knows, but I think he’s one to keep an eye on as he matures.
I also really like McCraken.
Classic Empire never did anything for me, but who knows. He may come back swinging.

[Glimmerglass]

Its hard not to like Irish War Cry for a variety of reasons. Certainly after many years of dubious leading owners and trainers grabbing headlines it would be refreshing if IWC remains a solid runner for (and breaks from the gate) the first Saturday in May. Per remarks made to Thoroughbred Daily News:

“If we run in the Fountain of Youth, there’s some question about whether or not he’d come back and run in the [Apr. 1] Florida Derby,” Motion told TDN over the weekend. “It’s possible we could do something like the Blue Grass [Apr. 8]. At some point, there’s the opportunity to give him an extra week and the question is whether we do that sooner or wait to the lead up to the Kentucky Derby and give him the five weeks [after the Florida Derby.] But, yes, we are looking at three preps leading up to the Derby.”

He originally opened at Wynn|Las Vegas Derby Future wager at 125-1 and now (2/13/17) at 10-1; Interestingly the less than stellar effort of Classic Empire didn’t take off the luster for Wynn as he’s at 8-1. The lowest odds are are McCracken at 6-1.

[Shammy_Davis]

@mommy peanut

I’m a big fan of IWC.
Will he make it to the Derby, let alone win it? Who knows, but I think he’s one to keep an eye on as he matures.
I also really like McCraken.
Classic Empire never did anything for me, but who knows. He may come back swinging.

Off the top of my head, the last top quality colt to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby was Street Sense. In the last few decades conversation has always been active about Tampa Bay preps, but few of consequence show up at the KD. McCracken and Tapwrit will make for a good race, but the dirt track has a surprise filled history.

Just to clarify, this is not to say that some very nice colts haven’t won the TBD, it’s just not historically a big step up to the KD.

[Shammy_Davis]

@vineyridge

Irish War Cry has Pretty Polly in tail female. She started a very productive branch of her female family, along with being one of the greatest race mares in history. On the bottom he has a VERY nice pedigree for the American classic distances.

FWIW, Curlin has a dam line with some some darned stout horses.

Came across this which might be of interest.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pedigree-insights-irish-war-cry/

[Shammy_Davis]

McCracken doesn’t excite Mike Watchmaker either.

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/18674782/mccraken-perceived-potential-outrunning-reality

[Shammy_Davis]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/epicharis-qualifies-kentucky-derby-hyacinth-victory/

[Shammy_Davis]

@mommy peanut

That’s from before CE popped an abscess. Latest report has Casse saying they may head back to Gulfstream.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219939/classic-empire-out-of-fountain-of-youth