Or just no sparkling “star” in this year’s 3 year old crop…
In past years, seems like there was always one or two “special” colts… often getting knocked out in the run-up to the KD starting gate but at least something special. This year… meh… not so much. Every colt that starts to look special fades of their own accord.
In tomorrow’s Spiral Stakes my picks are either Soglia or Kittens Cat with outside chances for Convict Pike and King and his court. I always like Motion when dirt is not in play though Soglia’s best Beyer is no where near Kittens Cat’s 105.
Interestingly (in a possible negative) Irish War Cry per Motion was supposed to put in a work this week. He failed to do so.
Three Derby Points races this weekend, here are the US based ones.
Saturday - $500,000 G3 JACK Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
5:55pm EST race off as the 10th of 12
Post, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, ML
Sunday - $800,000 G3 Sunland Derby at Sunland Park
7:28pm EST race off as the R8 of the card
Post, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, ML
**From Friday: Kimbear a scratch from the Sunland Derby
As for the UAE Derby with as much rain as they are getting (yea, I know, weird) it should have some impact in the course condition. Sure its all weather but that doesn’t negate all water having some influence.
Saturday - Group 2, $2 million UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles
Awards 100 Derby qualifying points to the winner
PP, Horse, Jockey, Trainer (no ML odds)
1 Qatar Man, C. O’Donoghue, M. Botti
2 Master Plan, J. Velazquez, T. Pletcher
3 Lancaster Bomber, R. Moore, A. O’Brien
4 Midnight Chica, C. Hayes, D. Selvaratnam
5 Top Score, A. De Vries, S. bin Suroor
6 Fawree, B. Fayd’Herbe, M. de Kock
7 Bee Jersey, S. Hitchcott, D. Watson
8 Vettori Kin, J. Rosario, K. McPeek
9 Fly At Dawn, W. Buick, C. Appleby
10 Epicharis (JPN), C. Lemaire, K. Hagiwara ***
11 He Runs Away, S. De Sousa, R. Colombo
12 Spirit of Valor, S. Heffernan, A. O’Brien
13 Thunder Snow, C. Soumillon, S. bin Suroor << favorite
14 Nomorerichblondes, A. Fresu, A. bin Harmash
15 Cosmo Charlie, P. Dobbs, D. Watson
16 Adirato, Y. Take, N. Sugai
*** Epicharis is already guaranteed a starting spot for Kentucky Derby having achieved automatic birth when winning the Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse
I am at a lost with the Sunland. Full of speed and strong connections, the winner comes from off the pace or is on the pace and stumbles across the finish as field collapses in the dust. Either the closer Shareholder Value or pace setter Conquest Mo Money in my obviously desperate opinion.
Absolutely too many derby preps and 3 year olds to keep track of. Appears Baffert and Pletcher are pulling out colts to run as if they were rabbits in a hat. Really enjoy the simpler oaks situation with five or six really nice fillies which fits well into my geriatric memory bank. Not that I don’t think Unique Bella isn’t going to crush any competition that opposes her.
Irish War Cry did put in his work Saturday morning. He worked in company and time was ranked (which is a meaningless value) 14 of 34 for 5-furlongs at the Palm Meadows Training Center. Wasn’t pushed for the effort.
Thunder Snow won the UAE Derby so can go to the Kentucky Derby if they want. That horse also won a Group 1 on turf in France so he’s rather talented.
Replay of the UAE Derby: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0ZnFh9h7eI
Graham Motion tweeted out that Irish War Cry will start next at the Big A in the Wood Memorial.
$30K maiden claimer, Fast and Accurate, wins Spiral.:eek: OMG! The sky is falling here too.
Fast and Accurate, at 24-1 the other Dr Kendall Hansen owned runner (plus 9th place finisher En Hanse) - in the Grade 3 $500,000 Spiral! Indeed there seems to be almost way to predict this year’s runners.
The replay video of the Spiral:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clhaJhMMKcE
http://www.drf.com/news/fast-and-accurate-pulls-24-1-surprise-spiral-stakes
Fast and Accurate, from the only American-based crop sired by 2011 juvenile champion Hansen, is not a Triple Crown nominee, meaning his owner will have to pay a $200,000 supplementary fee to compete. Asked whether he will proceed to the Derby, Hansen replied in the affirmative.
“F— yeah,” he said.
Rest of the Spiral Stakes runners earning KY Derby points: Blueridge Traveler, a 35-1 shot, rallied late to finish second, a half-length before Convict Pike, a 10-1 shot. Kitten’s Cat, the 5-2 favorite in a field of 11 3-year-olds, was fourth.
Honest question: if Fast and Accurate was your horse would you pay the $200k supplement fee?
Just me but I don’t think I would pay it. The chances of winning or even hitting the board to earn it back will be slim. I know people catch Derby fever but frankly I’d cut a deal with a would-be partner to put up the bulk of the money (and get the bulk of the winnings - if any - and keep the trophy - if any) and try it that way. Let someone else pay $200k to act like a cowboy who is all hat and no cattle as the saying goes.
Glimmer, I’m with you. I didn’t think the Spiral was stacked enough with strong quality that I’d supplement a 24-1 shot for the Derby.
Having said that, at the rate we’re going this year, Fast and Accurate could get supplemented and in the starting gate at the Derby with 99-1 odds and win :lol: (SA had a 99-1 winner today!). Could happen but not even sure F&A could hit the board in the Derby…
I though Sonneteer at 112-1 looked pretty good in the Rebel. If he shows up in the Derby at 112-1, I’ll have a little bit on him. 
Looking forward to a closer look in the Arkansas Derby when I go there on my yearly live trip to the races. I do wish there was one 3-year-old this year who really grabbed me strongly, but I haven’t seen him yet, other than Mastery.
From the BH this morning, F&A is heading toward the Derby :eek:
I realize every horse in the starting gate has a chance to win but IMO some have better chances than others
Hence rallies to win Sunland.:eek:. This racing weekend has been March Mayhem. NC beats KY in Southern NCAA regionals all madness aside. What’s next?
Hope Bronze Age is okay after the stumble, being eased and walked off 
Yup, the curse of the favorite strikes again… sigh.
If a colt is going to step up as the odds on KY Derby favorite, the FL Derby and the Santa Anita Derby are the races. Historically true, but maybe not this year.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/florida-derby-hopefuls-tune-up/
I love it when a gambler makes making a bet so simple.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2017-evaluating-florida-derby-history-find-years-winner
Yea, right. :lol:
Still a lot of big purse, high profile races to come but they’ll be in very quick succession: Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita. Hopefully they’ll sort this very weird year out. A confident, commanding win by a runner who previously showed solid merit might realign the picture. Not to dismiss the dreams of others but I doubt we’ll see the Japan auto-entry, UAE Derby winner, Sunland winner, Spiral winner etc being anything but an outlier in the Derby mix.
On the distaff side, I’m following Ghalia who won this past weekend and got some Oaks points.
And while I never expected Unique Bella to run in the KY Derby (she had no points to make the gate and wasn’t pointed to such an awarding race) it’s shame to learn she is now ruled out of the Kentucky Oaks.
http://www.drf.com/news/unique-bella-miss-santa-anita-oaks-and-kentucky-oaks-shin-injury
Bummer about Unique Bella. I do have a filly I like, and if she gets to the Oaks (probably not as the favorite), I’ll have a few bucks on her. It Tiz Well. I just think conformation-wise, she’s an awesome-looking filly, and something about her grabs me. I’d love her as a broodmare to cross with Trak stallions.
Glimmer, I just saw that. I know she wasn’t pointing to the Derby but disappointed we won’t see her in the Oaks. Second year in a row Hollendorfer looses the leading candidate for the Oaks (Songbird being last year’s non-appearance in the Oaks).
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