Nice to see Classic Empire’s win yesterday. Lookin at Lee sure was headed everywhere - determined. And also loved Sonneteer - from the clouds. But as they mention Classic Empire also having had a back problem, I wonder about how he’d hold up in the stress that is the KD.
Anyone ever have the chance to hang out in Louisville the week leading up to the Derby? Think it would be heaven watching the works/gallops a few days in a row.
Couple of my favorite pictures from yesterday:
Classic Empire
[ATTACH=JSON]{“data-align”:“none”,“data-size”:“medium”,“data-attachmentid”:9715392}[/ATTACH]
Sonneteer
[ATTACH=JSON]{“data-align”:“none”,“data-size”:“medium”,“data-attachmentid”:9715393}[/ATTACH]
Malagacy is a handful being saddled.
[ATTACH=JSON]{“data-align”:“none”,“data-size”:“medium”,“data-attachmentid”:9715394}[/ATTACH]
Outriders’ horses waiting patiently before the racers arrive in the paddock
[ATTACH=JSON]{“data-align”:“none”,“data-size”:“medium”,“data-attachmentid”:9715395}[/ATTACH]
The Blue Grass took a hit in prestige due to the conversion to Polytrack. It stopped being a serious Derby prep. Plus, it also used to be run three weeks out and most trainers want 4-6 weeks between final prep and the Derby. Now that they are back to dirt and 4 weeks out, it could return to a top prep and G1 status.
(It wasn’t downgraded to G2 until after it was converted back to dirt, but the years of irrelevant fields due to polytrack did their damage to the reputation of the race.)
IIRC, the Blue Grass was irrelevant as long ago as 2000. That was because it ran too close to the Derby; I thought it was only two weeks out, but my memory could easily be wrong.
It has been three weeks out as long as I can remember. It was the Lexington that was two weeks out and basically irrelevant - other than Charismatic winning it then the Derby. Seems like they’ve moved it out as it was three weeks out this year.
I saw Malagacy was washed out when he got to the starting gate. Then I saw that Shackleford is his sire. Shackleford always used to wash out and buck in the post parade so maybe he gets it from his dad.
The DRF cites Chad Brown as leaning toward not having Cloud Computing [the owners also own Practical Joke, who is in for sure and will run] in the Derby. http://www.drf.com/news/cloud-comput…kentucky-derby
Cloud Computing currently sits 20th on the Derby points list, pending a decision by the connections of Conquest Mo Money as to whether to supplement for $200,000 and run.
Someone else cited that it feels odd to not have a Bob Baffert horse in the Derby. Agreed there and even if multiple horses were to drop out his nearest trainee based upon points is #31 Reach The World with just 10-points.
From a tweet today (4/18/17) by The Downey Profile - attached below is the theoretical morning line by former HRTV’s Jon White - it assumes that the horribly named Conquest Mo Money does get supplemented and runs.
I have to assume that with the litter of Todd Pletcher horses w/o jocks you might see Gary Stevens, Kent Desormeaux and even Calvin!
[ATTACH=JSON]{“alt”:“Click image for larger version Name: JonWhite-ML-odds-2017-Derby.jpg Views: 1 Size: 28.6 KB ID: 9717371”,“data-align”:“none”,“data-attachmentid”:“9717371”,“data-size”:“full”}[/ATTACH]
I think the theoretical morning line looks pretty reasonable to me.
If I were Cloud Computing’s connections, I’d be leaning toward not supplementing since Practical Joke is already solidly in, but that’s just me 
Will be strange to not see a Baffert horse but if he’s got nothing, he’s got nothing. Don’t know that even if Reach The World could end up eligible that it would make sense to run him.
But, what do I know… longshots have won before
It sure has been a strange up & down road to the Derby with most of theses horses.
While I don’t think there is a clear cut & obvious winner, I’ll stick with IWC as I have since last fall.
Win or lose, I’m not a bandwagon jumper LOL
I like McCracken and Gormley. I think Classic Empire could do it if he wants to.
And I’d definitely have a few bucks if I could on Sonneteer at 30-1. One of these days, he’s going to get there.
No Mo’ Money as he’s skipping for the Preakness but it will still cost him 'mo money…
http://www.drf.com/news/conquest-mo-money-will-await-preakness
Tom and Sandy McKenna, the owners of Conquest Mo Money, announced on Tuesday that they will not put up a $200,000 supplementary fee to run Conquest Mo Money in the Kentucky Derby on May 6 and will instead await the Preakness Stakes two weeks. The supplementary fee for the Preakness is $150,000, which also makes the horse eligible for the Belmont Stakes.
Reports are [assuming Cloud Computing is a no go] floating around that now #21 Lookin At Lee is also likely going to skip. There in variably will be at least another horse in the top 15 that will drop out - it always seems to happen. So maybe a horse like Royal Mo will get in.
I like Irish War Cry and McCraken at the moment. I would never bet on a maiden to win the Derby. Has a maiden ever won it?
Sir Barton, the first TC winner, was a maiden before the Derby. I think there may be another one or two, but I remember that one off the top of my head.
I liked Mastery and with him out of the picture, I’m leaning toward IWC for the Derby.
Do I think we’ll see a TC winner this year?? I’m not thinking that is very likely.
I’m not convinced yet that any of these can win two races in a row, much less three.
Three maiden starters who have won the KY Derby:
1937 Brokers Tip
1919 Sir Barton
1884 Buchanon
Otherwise 10 maiden starters since 1938 and not one has hit the board The last such starter was just last year (2016) with Trojan Nation - finishing 16th; his career is now 12 1-1-3 having won a maiden special weight in the summer at DelMar
In case anyone was wondering about when the big show is on …
Post time for the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby is 6:46 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 6, 2017.
The first race of the day has a 10:30 a.m. post time and the day’s final race has an 8:10 p.m. post time.
The Kentucky Derby will be preceded by the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, which has a post time of 5:25 p.m.
Broadcast coverage:
Noon-2:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, May 6: Kentucky Derby undercards, NBC Sports Network
2:30-7:20 p.m. ET, Saturday, May 6: Kentucky Derby 143 coverage, NBC
Online stream: Coverage available through the NBC Sports app
The latest Las Vegas odds from another source (obviously it will shift with some horses in and out plus positions selected) Bovada; they have Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire the 9/2 favorite with Always Dreaming second at 5/1. Source: Louisville Courier-Journal
Here’s a look at the odds as of April 19:
Classic Empire - 9/2
Always Dreaming - 5/1
Irish War Cry - 13/2
McCraken - 10/1
Gunnevera - 12/1
Battalion Runner - 16/1
Irap - 16/1
Practical Joke - 16/1
Tapwrit - 16/1
Girgin - 18/1
Hence - 22/1
Malagacy - 22/1
J Boys Echo - 28/1
Battle of Midway - 40/1
Cloud Computing 40/1
Conquest Mo Money - 40/1
Lookin At Lee - 40/1
Patch - 40/1
Royal Mo - 50/1
State of Honor - 50/1
Untrapped - 50/1
Fast and Accurate - 66/1
As seems to be common in recent years, there are the typical last minute acquisitions of Derby starters by owners (often in concert with breeding farms) who want to be part of the action. Case in point today’s news (4/21) that Battle of Midway was sold by Rick Porter/Foxhill Farm to a partnership of WinStar Farm and Don Alberto Stable.
Purchase price not cited, but Porter bought the colt for $410k as a yearling. He finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and has earnings of $290,000 from 4 starts 2-1-1. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will continue for the partnership & Flavien Prat has the KY Derby mount.
I am curious about these pre-retirement stallion acquisitions. Are the horses insured by the buyer or is there a clause in the sales contract that makes the contract void if the horse is deceased (either something like catastrophic breakdown or terminal colic or laminitis) prior to buyer taking possession?
By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. You may also receive promotional emails from The Chronicle of the Horse. You can opt out at any time.
For Customers
Company
Terms of Use
