40 is the new 20

Ha, I totally fell for the thread title hoping for some anti-aging advice :slightly_smiling_face:. I am thoroughly frustrated with the horse market and I have what I consider to be a decent budget. But I disagree that we are definitely in the new normal. We might be, but there is too much uncertainty right now to state it as fact. People might be done with the pandemic, but the pandemic is not done impacting the economy and the financial markets, and nobody can predict where it will go.

I would argue that a subset of horse-buyers feel wealthier on paper than ever given the huge run-up in the stock market and home equity in just the last two years. A correction in either the stock or housing market, or worse, both, could considerably change peopleā€™s perceptions of their wealth. Itā€™s not out of the question given the Fed is practically shouting they will raise rates rapidly this year to try to combat inflation. There is still a lot of stimulus money sloshing around, and the future of remote work and commercial real estate is unclear.

Obviously I am not talking about the people for whom 5 figures is a drop in the bucket, rather I am thinking of people who are sensitive to a price differential of 20-40K in what is essentially a sunk cost (which is still incredibly fortunate). My guess is there are far more horse buyers in the second bucket than the first.

7 Likes

I agree @twostinkydogs that it is unlikely this is the new normal.

Look at what happened in 2008. The bottom fell out of the horse market.

Look what happened in the 70s and early 80s when people were paying six and seven figures for halter show horses.

The horse market is chimerical, which is why I donā€™t totally understand why people get swept up in the hype.

The scary thing about the eventing market is it is all supply/demand. There is rarely prize money to be earned with the horses; jusy buyer demand. So if the buyer demand dries up, there goes your income. Iā€™m not sure any other discipline has so little prize money. We donā€™t even have $100 stake classes very often.

2 Likes

Prices like these make me almost want to consider selling my little training level XC star, but I like her too much. Sheā€™s also probably too small to get the big money.

You might surprise yourself! I am looking for exactly what you haveā€¦something on the smaller side that can go training and I am striking out everywhere. Everything is 16.2+ and I am only 5ā€™2ā€¦

Lots of us out there are shopping for smaller horses!

Finding the market incredibly disheartening and honestly, depressing. I want a smallish Tadpole/BN horse to get going and doing - I brought along my lovely young TB in a program until we learned he had horrible kissing spines, and then I had one great lease pony, and one confidence-killer lease pony - still taught me a lot, but Iā€™m just looking for one thatā€™s quiet, safe, willing, and fun. Iā€™m picky about the type of ride, but definitely not shopping for the fanciest. A budget of around 20k will get you a clunker thatā€™s ready or nearly ready to go Tadpole with a bold (IMO) rider. If you want a horse going BN with a pro that has potential to move up levels, seems to be about 30k+.

Inquired about a horse needing a step-down from Prelim recentlyā€¦ 50k.

It just feels apparent that my chance to actually get going in the lowest levels of the sport is never going to come to fruition.

1 Like

Any chance you could reallocate your funds towards buying a nice unstarted horse and putting it in training with an experienced event horse trainer/BNT? While this obviously doesnā€™t solve your ā€œget doing and goingā€ wish short-term, long-term it is still less expensive to produce a BN horse than to buy one. You can get purpose bred event youngsters for 5k-15k; even if you put them in a program with a BNT for a year, youā€™d still pay less in purchase price + all in training costs / board fees, than you would to buy that same horse going BN/N. BN is introductory schooling to a young horse - a good trainer can get a lightly started horse confirmed at BN within a season or less.

3 Likes

Where?! Would love to know!

4 Likes

You are on FB, right? Check out ā€œEvent Horse Breeding NAā€ to start. It is mostly the breeders themselves but most ā€“ if not all of them ā€“ have websites or FB pages with foals for sale. Iā€™m seeing 5k-15k depending on quality, potential for UL, and pedigree. There are a few on that page that are serious event prospects in the 10-15k region. Some have ā€œinquire for priceā€ which to me is singularly frustrating as a window shopper ( :laughing: ) - I assume those are likely more than the aforementioned figures.

If you want to cut the price in half, look at the TB crosses. The stallion owner that stands Artrageous, for instance, has several foals that have been affordable and nice. I am still kicking myself for not buying the Innkeeper filly they had for sale ā€“ at $2,500.

canā€™t find that oneā€¦ tried a few variationsā€¦?

I have thought about it, but I tried this with my TB, I really donā€™t want to to it again. It feels very risky. Especially since Iā€™m not sure the horse will be able to give me the ride Iā€™m looking for before sitting on it.

2 Likes

Lauren Sprieser had an interesting article recently about the lack of horses in that solid, well trained, 12-14 year old range. 2008 wasā€¦ 14 years ago. When the financial crisis hit, how many horses did not get bred due to the uncertain economy? Are we seeing that shortage now?

3 Likes

Hang in there, your unicorn will find you!

2 Likes

Youā€™re seeing these prices for foals or maybe yearlings, right? You donā€™t think expenses would end up approaching $30k with a purchase price of $5-$15k plus 3+ years of board, vet, and farrier plus letā€™s say a year of pro training to get the horse to BN/N? I could do it for less (assuming no vet catastrophes) but I keep my horses at home, do all the labor myself, and do the riding myself. For people who board Iā€™m not sure there are a lot of savings to be had. I actually think a lot of horses are probably under-priced relative to the cost it took to produce themā€¦ (Though I havenā€™t been shopping for an eventer in the last two years so my knowledge there could be a bit dated.)

6 Likes

They definitely would approach $30k if it takes 3+ years, for sure. Right now, the cheapest horse to produce is a BN horse but they are also in the most demand, which drives their sale prices up. Itā€™s cheaper to produce a BN horse than it is to buy one in our current market, but thatā€™s not the same for N or T because they need additional show experience ($$) and training ($$) and time ($$) to confirm them to the level.

The expense it takes to produce said horse is directly proportionate to the level you want to confirm them to and the market skews less and less in the producerā€™s favor the higher the level is.

A good trainer with the right program can achieve BN easily and under a 30k budget, provided they are familiar with starting horses and introducing them to eventing. But like @ExpialidociousOTTB saidā€¦ very risky, no guarantee personalities will jive or horse will want to play in that sport. And not everyone has a trainer that can do this, either.

A neutral observation of whatā€™s going on with the breeding market that may be limited to my zipcode only: if the foals arenā€™t selling in utero or before theyā€™re 2 years old, they tend to sit on the market until the breeder sends them to someone to be started and backed. The eventing market in particular is hit by this because they are not like dressage buyers or breeders who shop for en vogue/fashionable pedigrees. Not all breeders are set up for starting a horse under saddle, or even want to do it, so you can get some nice young stock that way. Itā€™s always worth reaching out to local breeders to see what they have.

3 Likes

Makes sense! Especially with smaller breeders. When I was shopping for a dressage prospect last year I went to two big, more dressage-oriented warmblood breeders in PA. One of them told me that if their horses donā€™t sell by the summer/early fall of their 2-year-old year they pull them off the market until after theyā€™re started because they can ask much more for them as started 3-year-olds. The other one had dozens of young horses but only a handful were actually for sale at any given timeā€“the ones that had just returned from the backer. I would have been happy with an unstarted horse in the late 2 / early 3 age range but that wasnā€™t an option. These places have the pipeline for that though, and maybe if I were a known pro rather than a random-ish amateur, there would have been more flexibility.

3 Likes

I caught the tail end of an NPR piece on this topic earlier today. The interviewee placed the blame on work from home. They also expressed concern about how a loss of remote job opportunities post-pandemic could send us into a real estate market free fall. You canā€™t afford San Diego prices on an Ohio salary.

Youā€™re not kidding. We bought a farm in 2021; we had already been searching for YEARS. Then we went through 9 months of the sale from hell before we finally closed, with the sellers destroying the place in the interim and no remuneration for us. But Iā€™m so glad we stuck it out because the market has somehow gotten even worse!

Unfortunately, a market crash is what killed horse sales 14 years ago. I worry about people going under water on horses. Horses are not worth that. Whereā€™s that old meme when you need it: the average rider doesnā€™t need a $40,000 horse, they need a $1,000 horse and $39,000 in lessons. I donā€™t say that to insult any of us implying we arenā€™t good riders. Even in 2021 you can still make an upper level event horse from someone elseā€™s garbage.

10 Likes

In my industry remote jobs are stealing all the employees from the office jobs away. My work is anti work from home for the most part, they do allow it at times but they donā€™t love it. A lot of recruiters calling and offering work from home and a lot of people taking it. The company I work for is a really amazing company to work for too so they are giving up a great job already. Itā€™s interesting.

We moved out of our metro area to further out. Still can commute to DC or NoVa as needed, but we purchased a farm that sat on the market for 8 months before putting an offer in. It was too much $$ for the locals but not fancy enough for the Loudoun County folks to buy.

As the city pushes out this way, home prices are sky rocketing and locals are being pushed further out.

Horse prices are insane as many are financing them since interest rates are minimal.

1 Like

Itā€™s totally gotten worse. We bought our farmette in late 2020. Since then the estimated value of our place has increased a staggering 30%+. IMO itā€™s false equity but time will tell.

I would hate to be trying to buy now for sure.

1 Like