[QUOTE=Jexa;8893804]
Some more info for reference:
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The truck I’m looking at is a 2015 GMC Sierra 2500 Duramax. Low miles, the fact that it is “work truck” trim is what puts it in my budget, though at the high end. I’ll admit while I originally wasn’t considering anything that new the fact that it has side airbags is attractive. My tow truck was totalled by a drunk asshole in a wreck that I was exceedingly lucky to survive, albeit with a nasty injury. Safety features are suddenly much more important to me.
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my trailer is a gooseneck 2+1, would normally be hauling a 1000# and 1200# horse and all their crap ;). Not light, but not super heavy either.
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I currently live in Mississippi but will be moving to Arizona, southern New Mexico, or San Antonio, Texas for about a year. After that South Carolina is looking probable. I can’t see needing 4WD, ever, in any of those places except maybe South Carolina. I could see slick grass being the biggest concern in the southeast. Maybe just always carry a couple 2x4s to use as traction??
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growing up all our trucks NEEDED 4WD to get through muddy fields to center pivots. I think I would feel naked without it. But, as I said in the OP I’ve only ever needed 4WD once while trailering. I was glad to have it at the time, though.
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this area is a bad market for good tow vehicles so I’d hate to pass up on a truck I think is almost everything I want, but I’d hate to regret not having the safety net of 4WD…
I feel like Murphy’s Law is in full effect here. If I get a 4WD truck I’ll never use it. If I get one without it, I’ll need 4WD at the least opportune time.[/QUOTE]
Lawyers call this “the value of the chance.” 
What is the value of that one time to you? Murphy says that one time will come at the most inopportune moment; then, of course, Murphy was an optimist!!!
My guess is you’re Air Force or Army? That suggests you’re young, healthy, and in good physical condition. For you carrying some lumber or mats to get you out of trouble might be less of an issue than for someone who’s old, stiff, and is on sundown side of things.
It’s likely you do not need 4WD. But if it’s presence gives you peace of mind and you’re willing to pay the freight for its cost, maintenance, and mileage penalty then do what gives you peace of mind. That, in and of itself, has value in terms of lower blood pressure and less general worry. And besides, it’s KOOL!!!
Good luck in whatever decision you make.
G.