NB, the sale was on TVG2 while TVG was broadcast as usual.
The talking heads on TVG, along with comments on BloodHorse.com, have implied that quality is selling and less quality isn’t. Also, sales are down as there are no dispersals as part of the overall sale.
Me? I suspect the arena might have been a bit chilly to want to sit and watch 
I forgot to watch yesterday, and didn’t my agent just happen to purchase one for our partnership. Don’t even know what she looks like. LOL Hip #1103.
[QUOTE=LaurieB;9006265]
ASB Stars, he’s a short yearling by Warrior’s Reward o/o Belleofthebridle (by Yes It’s True). His dam’s sister by Warrior’s Reward was a nice filly, which is why we did the breeding, but unfortunately that stallion is pretty “cold” now and we ended up buying him back at the sale. He has a nice 3yo half-brother by Ghostzapper who should race in NY this year. And we have his 2yo half-sister by Congrats in early training. Hopefully she will run next year too. Most likely we will offer him again in the September sale.[/QUOTE]
There’s a colt by Warrior’s Reward running in the Smarty Jones, coming up. Let’s hope he helps “heat up” interest in his daddy for you!
Yes, Warrior’s Club. Wayne Lukas has done a great job with him. I hope he runs well.
It seemed to me that there were bargains to be had and some people (I thought) really got some nice mares, but so many breeders were willing to buy back rather than let them go so cheap. I don’t blame them!
[QUOTE=skydy;9007730]
It seemed to me that there were bargains to be had and some people (I thought) really got some nice mares, but so many breeders were willing to buy back rather than let them go so cheap. I don’t blame them![/QUOTE]
“let them go so cheap”
“Cheap” more times than not is always “cheap” a year or so later. If not shortly after leaving the ring or the next day.
Ask me how I know. And I am supposed to know what I am doing.
That being said there are a lot of “amateurs” playing the game these days. The market is “trickier” than it EVER has been in my professional life. A bunch of “kids” playing.
Water seeks its own level. That level is not always reveled in one’s crystal ball.
Me, I’m sitting on the sidelines. It is a BS market. A “player” better have brass you know what and very deep pockets.
There are no “middle class” buyers or owners that are willing to give fair money for a good horse regardless of look and pedigree.
The market is incredibly “polarized”. Scares the crap out of me.
Me too, gumtree.
I have two things that I believe are bellwethers for the national economy: one is when big national companies decide to open stores in the Memphis, Tennessee area or Mississippi because they are willing to gamble on markets that are not rich. To me that means that they are suffering from “irrational exuberance”. The other is the state of TB sales. I think that TB sales are extremely prone to bubbles, and those bubbles always burst. TB sales also predict the end of recessions, IMO. Right now, it looks to me as if the sales may have topped out after their recovery from 2007-2008. They have nowhere to go but down, IMO.
Given what I have seen lately in both of my bellwethers, I’d be willing to bet that there will be a recession in the next year.
I have two things that I believe are bellwethers for the national economy: one is when big national companies decide to open stores in the Memphis, Tennessee area or Mississippi because they are willing to gamble on markets that are not rich. To me that means that they are suffering from “irrational exuberance”. The other is the state of TB sales. I think that TB sales are extremely prone to bubbles, and those bubbles always burst. TB sales also predict the end of recessions, IMO. Right now, it looks to me as if the sales may have topped out after their recovery from 2007-2008. They have nowhere to go but down, IMO.
Given what I have seen lately in both of my bellwethers, I’d be willing to bet that there will be a recession in the next year.
Not to get into politics, but the sole reliance on a monetary policy by the soon to be out office president has put the nation in a sad state. I agree the possibility of a forthcoming recession is high. As it relates to the Thoughbred, the industry has been existing on life support for decades. That life support has been the very rich owners and buyers and if you think about it, it is the same as the federal bank printing money to prop up the national economy.
The first reports on this sale were not keen.
Most recently the NTRA President indicated that the industry was stabilizing on the back of wagering but he needs to go back to school and take some business courses or at the very least get some prescription eyeglasses if he thinks wagering is the answer. The racing industry sustainability is dependent upon the breeding, racing, and gambling sectors all having balance sheets in the black.
https://www.ntra.com/ntra-statement-2016-wagering-on-u-s-races/
If anything will save the national economy it will be future optimism and risk ventures, something long since lacking in the Thoroughbred industry.
I’ll second what gumtree said. I’ve been breeding, selling and racing for about a decade now. It’s never been a bed of roses but early on, I found that a breeder could get “ok” money for a decent horse by a cold sire. The market would take its discount on the sire but if the horse looked OK and possibly looked like the buyer could flip into a two year old sale, the seller wouldn’t make money but you could move the horse.
Not true anymore. I found that you need to check almost every box to even get the stud fee back out of them and the horse has to be pretty nice to cover your expenses. An OK horse by a cold sire is a giveaway. I personally never seen so many breeders come up feathers as this past year including yours truly. It is sobering.
So… what’s the solution?
Decreasing the size of the market? Attracting more buyers back into the game, apart from the nouveau riche? Moving away from public sales as the primary means to sell horses? (I’m just throwing the usual conversation points out there, not necessarily advocating these)
Personally, I think the future is bleak thanks to the widening dichotomy between the “middle class” and the “rich” and the ever growing cost of horse ownership. But surely there’s some way the market can correct itself to a sustainable level.
I can only speak for me and I don’t have “solutions” per se. I think the economics is daunting and things have to go well most of the time to keep even average well off people in the game unless they are part of a multitude ownership scheme.
I also think that the consolidation of the game is really hurting smaller stables and owners. The top trainers now seem to have over 100 head and they have inordinate power with the racing secretaries. If smaller owners choose to hitch their star to that wagon, they will be in the third string hoping that their horses aren’t running for the same condition as one of the big owners. The current fad of running every 60 days or so hurts the bottom line of the less capitalized. As small owners peel away, racing starts to look like Golden Gate with 8 races of 5 horse fields where an owner must win to break even.
And don’t start on me about ridiculous vet bills. That’s not across the board and it’s not necessarily for the reason everyone thinks. But unlike pet horses, vets work directly with trainers and not owners and trainers regard the selection of vets as part of their program. Sometimes the mark up for basic therapeutic medications is staggering. There was an idea floated a few years ago by Stronach of opening a veterinary pharmacy on the grounds of the racetrack to keep owners from having to incur ridiculous mark ups. I’m sure the vets don’t like it but that is an idea whose time has come.
The initial step to save the racing industry is to solidify the organization nationally and place it’s financial future on a market based supply and demand business plan. No more of this dreaming of the big horse and commercial breeders flooding the market horses they hope will sell. Racing needs to find places for all horses to run or stop breeding on the basis of anticipated rewards and dreams.
I apologize for being so succinct but I am having nothing but problems posting and editing to this website since it went down some months ago. This is a great discussion. Hope it continues.
I think “saving racing” and “correcting the market” for sales are ultimately intertwined, but are otherwise two distinct problems. Some key market problems are almost entirely internal, within the industry, albeit influenced heavily by the economy. Where the state of racing as a sport is heavily influenced by the general populous and government regulations.
Which is why I asked about the market, in particular. As someone who has been (highly unsuccessfully) embarking in my own breeding venture, economic viability is a concern.
Apart from the old aphorism, “the only way to make a small fortune in horses is to start with a large one,” how else can one sustainably breed today?
I agree that all sectors are intertwined, yet distinct. Further their operations are segregated and that is the problem. JMHO but if the racing and gaming side of the industry were restructured into a single mission self supporting business model, that would eventually dictate the supply and demand of horses from the breeding and sales market. Essentially, in theory, the breeding and sales areas would self correct based on the needs of the sport.
Uncharted unrestrained commercial breeding is problematic and the sales companies have not effectively stemmed the flow of low end horses available for days ad infinitum at auctions. I guess the low quality horses could run thus keeping them in the game but that would mean tracks would have to invest in races for them at considerable expense to all connections. It is definitely a quagmire.
First, IMO, the game has to be restructured with a single privately held governing authority that regulates the full spectrum of what happens nationally at the tracks and wagering. The breeding and sales sectors, as a matter of course, would probably self correct on its own as a result of the sport’s demands.
Honestly though, the future is bleak. The leadership is dismal and greed is rampant. Blocked by self interested individuals and organizations no one should be optimistic that restructuring for the good of the game will happen.
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