No one seems to have a problem with the KY summer shows happening in Lexington right now and there are MANY transplants from other hotspot areas who are there showing right now.
The reality is that COVID is not going away. ever. Even with a vaccine, who’s success rate will be around 65%, it is not going away. I don’t wish death on anyone, and I most certainly do not want people to get sick from this horrid thing but what I am struggling to understand is: are we going to hide behind closed doors forever? Contact tracing isnt going to work. You would need to know on the dot with contact tracing for it to have any effect. People move around too often and come into contact with too many people everyday or every hour for it to matter. After the fact-facts do nothing to curb transmission of the virus other than assist people with knowing they likely could have it.
The statistics for children and COVID at this time are extremely good. 4 cases per 100,000 children in ages 5-17 within the US. That is 004% of children. 30 children under the age of 18 have died from COVID since the beginning, tragically, which is too low of a percentage to even attempt to calculate (there are 74 million children under the age of 18 in the USA). The percentage works out to about .00004% which is about 0%. .004% contract it. 0% die from it. Approximately 116,000 kids are seriously injured in auto accidents annually and 800 children drown. 30 died from COVID. According to studies done in China, France and England; transmission from adult to child appears to be rare upon initial findings. Children with pre-existing conditions, obese kids, etc are more likely to suffer affects.
And i have heard that the Dept of Ag is monitoring horse shows, especially the bigger ones, to ensure the guidelines are being followed. If not; they will be shut down.
@snaffle1987 why do you say that? N1H1 went away. As did the Spanish flu. Virus’s can mutate to be much less dangerous, and they can also die out if transmission is slowed down enough.
What is further confusing, is that people assume we can project the long term effects of this new virus on people of ANY age, when it is really something brand new. Why do we assume that a child getting it now (and not showing symptoms) won’t potentially have ramifications in the future (Chicken pox eventually leading to Shingles would be an example).
What I find quite baffling regarding the shows in the US, (for example the current Arabian show), is that people are worried about non compliant people causing the show to be shut down…not that non-compliant people are endangering the lives and health of those around them, and not that non-compliant people may cause an outbreak in an area that will then suffer economic shut down…just so they can show. it is very strange priorities from the outside looking in. The aforementioned AHA show has received at least two warnings from USEF…but is STILL not shut down…and I don’t think anyone has been required to leave…but it isn’t (just) the kids, even officials are operating in close quarters with others without masks ,or with masks pulled down. At the very least officials being non-compliant should be heavily sanctioned (in my opinion). Both trainers and officials should be held to the highest standard so as to set an example. of course there is now a call that all competitors watch what they post on social media which is far louder than the call for actual compliance.
In my community, the statistics have changed rather dramatically. We went from no kids being infected at the beginning of July to them being around 40% of new cases. My county and the neighboring county have more kids infected than 65+.
One county north, we had a daycare center become a hotspot from a pair of siblings, one infant and one preschool age, that infected multiple staff members.
The potential for long term impacts on people of any age should not be ignored. We know that there are long haulers in adults and we know that was true of SARS-1 also. The new information that suggests it may attack ACE receptors in the testes could mean for example that it causes male infertility, an impact seen from several other viral diseases.
The complete lack of understanding of the difficulties posed by the COVID virus, accompanied by either your inability to access epidemiological information, or your intellectual laziness to not bother with proper research, is inexcusable. This is not a time to pretend that you know what you are talking about. Please read some of the easily accessed science regarding the COVID virus. Unfortunately the sort of nonsense you are spouting can do real damage when posed to people who don’t know better.
Thankfully COTH is comprised of intelligent people for the most part.
People that post what they believe to be “facts” about COVID, while relying on what they’ve read on political websites, only contribute to the misinformation that is contributing to the spread of the virus. Hopefully no one will take your dreadful lack of understanding of the COVID virus situation to heart, because their lives could depend on it. I hope that no one has actually believed the drivel that you’ve posted here.
The only reason the spanish Flu went away was because the vitcim’s either died or those infected (symptomatic or not) gained immunity. The same would happen for COVID. Either everyone gets vaccinated in the world or everyone becomes exposed to it and either A) dies or B) gains antibodies and becomes immune. There was no available anti viral therapies for the Spanish Flu (or any flu!) and the case still remains today. Supportive therapies rather than cure. Those with weakened immune systems or pre-existing conditions will have a much harder time. The spanish flu infected 1/3 or more of the worlds’ population in 1918.
h1N1 didn’t disappear either. It was added to the annual flu vaccine which has become more popular in recent years to help reduce its numbers drastically. H1N1 is actually now considered part of the “general Flu” viruses that cycle every year. When it first hit; it took its worst toll on the younger population who had never been exposed before while a lot of the older population had shown immunity; likely from a previous exposure. We also didnt shut the entire world economy down and people never stopped living their lives or shaming others for not wearing masks when H1N1 hit. And h1N1 was very much a pandemic; but there wasn’t a care in the world in North America.
The reasons why Pandemic’s recede is because of two factors. 1) it kills a large amount of people it infects 2) people who are exposed become immune and/or get vaccinated when one is available which increases immunity. it is important to note that the majority of vaccines are not cures. They do not “cure” a person from getting the flu
Yes, Viruses can mutate and become less dangerous but they can also go the other way: Mutate and become more dangerous just like COVID did. COVID19 could mutate again.
I think a lot of the current “Hot Spots” we see are due to a couple factors. Many of them were behind the 8-ball which was the northeast who were infected early and had massive cases early in 2020. The rest of the states are perhaps more rural or larger population spread and less travel during certain times of year. North America is very vast and with the early shut downs it did slow the spread in March/April but it ultimately slowed them having exposure. Now they have exposure due to travel being increased once again and people congregating and those states who were not hit hard early; are (finally) feeling the affects. This is expected.
Until all of the population has immunity; the virus will spread. Until then, no matter how “shut down” the world remains; you are just slowing the process of viral immunity. Wvaes of a virus are expected as more people are exposed. There is nothing unexpected in that
I have brought up your first point a lot because there NEEDS to be concern for them. At KHP, numerous names from hot spots states (a lot of TX, FL, and CA) called over the intercom yesterday. The show is busy, VERY busy (120 horses in the 3’3). It’s not just PF I’m worried about. It’s the entire 5 weeks of National Finals shows that have been plopped right in the middle of a state that’s been seeing record high numbers.
also the dept of ag is ALWAYS in KY… they are checking health certs not Covid compliance. Though my friends bringing horses in have said they haven’t seen them & their trailer is shut up. .
KHP does have Covid compliance people running around on golf carts. People are confused because an announcement in the barns two days ago ((and usef printed protocol)) say your can have your mask down if your six foot away from people and need to have some fresh air… but the Covid compliance people yell at you for that. Also funny story, one of the COVID compliance guys told a vendor friend he and and his wife had corona - but the doctors gave them prednisone and it went away. :eek: I was shocked he’s going around telling people that at the horse show…
Again, no one is saying horse shows CANT run (and safely for the most part - thought I’ve been to a few others that really have no compliance). The issue is PEOPLE from the show going into the city and towns and spreading there. Heck - the campground is always full of license plates from all over and for SURE there is no Covid protocol or compliance there.
Statistics don’t lie SkyDy. Go read. Lets see your facts? I am fully aware that this is a new strain of Coronavirus. I am fully aware of the symptoms and how they are every changing and no one really can tell us if masks work or if 6 feet of social distancing works or not. The facts are ever- evolving.
What you have generalized in your post is assumptions; not facts.
The facts: A virus will continue to spread until the following occurs A) It infects people and they succumb to it B) It infects people and they build immunity C)there is a vaccine which helps immunity but doesn’t guarantee it.
The problem with C is that you cannot force an entire population to get vaccinated. Many world populations will not have access to it. and lastly; C doesn’t guarantee eradication of a virus. success of a vaccines is averaged/expected about 65%.
So until the majority of the population gains immunity through exposure; you will continue to see case numbers rise (the same as it did with Spanish Flu and with H1N1 in 2009) Deaths are likely to be reduced as treatments are better adapted as we learn more as time continues on. The longer large swaths of populations are not exposed; the more risk for cases.
Nothing about this virus is surprising. It is a Coronavirus which wreaks havoc as a respiratory virus. H1N1 was a worldwide Pandemic in 2009 and no one cared (and it hit the US hard!). No one social distanced. No one wore masks. No one was publicly shaming people for not doing so or not taking it seriously. No one shut down schools or closed up businesses. Why?
Isn’t there a mask mandate for the entire state of Kentucky? If so, how are people wearing masks more likely to spread the virus in town than at the horse show?
Restaurants and bars are open. Campgrounds are open with no rules. Not to mention traveling through states with no mask mandate or those that feel above even wearing a mask. How often do we hear stories of people out and about everywhere, while there are mandates, not complying? How many credit card machines have you swiped with no protector? How many stories have you heard of “I wore masks and ppe for months and still got corona virus” stories have you heard?
The truth is, we don’t know how it’s really spreading across surfaces and other ways and how “safe practices” are still getting corona. Science one day says it lives there for a few hours, other days it says it doesn’t live there at all. Yes - masks slow it OBVIOUSLY but masks aren’t 100% effective cause it’s still spreading other ways.
Or it runs out of people to infect, because no unexposed people are exposed, and enough time passes without new infections that there are no active viral particles left to reach a victim. That’s why SARS-1 and Ebola aren’t running rampant in the US right now. That’s why smallpox isn’t running rampant even though most of us have not been vaccinated. That’s why other countries are getting a handle on it.
And there are a lot of things surprising about this virus, including that it causes amputations and strokes, and that previously healthy people can go from seeming fine to dead in a very short time (hours) without treatment.
The right analogy isn’t flu, but polio, which also presents as an upper respiratory disease in most people.
You really don’t understand the issues with this virus. I know you think you do, but you.just.don’t.get.it.
I’m sure research scientists would love to know how you came to the conclusion that having the COVID virus provides permanent immunity, because science has yet to establish if ,and for how long, the anti-bodies produced during a COVID infection are effective against re-infection.
Covid is many times more deadly than H1N1 was: there were about 61 million cases of H1N1 from 2009-2010 and about 12,500 deaths. In 6 months, there have been about 4 million confirmed Covid cases and 145,000 deaths (per the CDC).
No, I more mean, there is a discussion about a show happening or not happening and the thread, like almost every thread like it, started the debate of ‘my facts are better than your facts’. I am not saying one is right and one is wrong. Just the same people screaming their facts back and forth like in every thread that even a hint of Covid comes up.
Disclaimer - I wear a mask. I socially distance. I wash my hands like crazy. I do fail at face touching but I try hard to not touch my face. I have been to no family parties or social events. I am volunteering at an upcoming horse trial where I have to wear a mask, outdoors, for the whole time I am there and I will do this.
Realistically, unless the thread is about someone who keeps their horses at home (and does their own farrier and vet work) and never has to cross paths with another human to do things with the horses, the subject of Covid is likely to come up. It’s just part of the discussion these days about many activities.
And then… people will post the way they usually post.
I began this thread in order to discuss USEF’s decision to hold Pony Finals during the COVID pandemic, so COVID ,especially what is not known about the virus’ effect on children, is bound to be discussed.
The subject is a serious one and I don’t see any “screaming”.
I suppose that at some point we have to learn that sometimes you just can’t fix stupid, but when the stakes are this high it’s understandable that people try to educate the misinformed.
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