Just wanted to post an update - my family is starting our pony search! 
We have been leasing and enjoying our time at the barn. I am grateful for all of the insightful comments. I will keep posting updates periodically as we patiently look for our next best friend!
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A lot of things depend on where you’re located and prices in the area. But some things to consider:
- As others have said, you should budget for farrier being done 4-5 weeks, rather than 6-8. I don't know any horses on an 8 week schedule, there might be some, but boht of mine are barefoot and that would not work for them at all. They would be far too long.
- I would make sure you can afford the variation of this budget with shoes. The right horse might require shoes or might require shoes later in life. and if the horse requires shoes to be comfortable, then you want to make sure that's something you can afford
- I would ask someone at the barn you board at about vet visits and what they cost. Vaccination prices are usually pretty standard, but vets also have fees for farm visits. Given this, I usually spend at least $350 any time the vet comes out to do bi-annual vaccines, coggins (once a year), and a check-up. That doesn't include teeth, I have a separate dentist. So, I end up spending a lot more than you've budgeted without any accidents. But my area is might be more expensive than your's. So, worth asking around.
I think your budget sounds reasonable for your area. But for an older horse/pony, you might want to up your non-emergency vet budget some in case pony needs or winds up needing injections, Previcox, Cushings medication. Then there’s the possibility of additional feed if the older pony can’t eat hay well. And dental visits could become more frequent than 1x/yr.
I don’t keep a rolling emergency fund for mine but instead I budget so that I am nowhere near using all of my income outside of the essentials for me (food, gas, house, utilities, etc.) on the horse. Not even close. For a while, extra vet related costs put me in the red because care cost me thousands extra per month due to an injury… and that was with an insured horse (who maxed out his policy and then some). If you are already tight in the budget for the routine things, anything unexpected could hurt a lot.
Even my fairly “easy” new horse (had him now almost 9 months) has been a little more expensive including: $500 saddle adjustment of a saddle I owned (and possible new saddle purchase in the future), went from $225 shoes every 6 weeks to $290 shoes every 5 weeks, needs dental every 6 months until we correct an issue he came with (around $300/visit), cut open his knee and needed vet calls, NSAIDs, and antibiotics, cut open his face and needed sutures and antibiotics, mystery lameness vet calls with nerve blocks, 1x month chiropractor and 1x month massage, SI injections, Xrays to check hoof angles for farrier, some charges for a few thrown shoes, UV fly mask, expensive supplement through my vet, new blankets and then more new blankets/fly sheets because he filled out (thankfully, I have some hand-me-downs), new shimmable saddle pads to address saddle fit. I already owned a ton of tack and supplies. Plus all the usual routine and elective things like nutritional supplements, vaccines.
So, you and your sister might have to be willing to go into the non-horsey fund sometimes or have your emergency fund keep rolling over.
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