Do you fear that the vast majority of the population will be priced out of horse ownership?

[StormyDay]

@Old_Mac_Donald

Those “land tracts” are becoming housing. As our population grows we need more land to house them AND more land to feed them, a bit of a conundrum. Good arable land is being built on because it typically has a benign climate (neither too cold nor too arid).

The problem is not that people will no longer WANT horses, but that there simply will not be enough land to grow the crops required to feed them. The land that will be available for cropping will be exhausted just growing grain crops for human consumption, never mind animal feed. As feed becomes more expensive and land more expensive, and the population living in larger and denser areas, horse ownership will simply not be viable.

We are, simply put, going to end and repopulate ourselves out of existence, along with our domestic animals.

They are becoming housing in suburban areas. But a vast majority of that land won’t be touched because it just isn’t desirable. I seriously doubt there’s going to be a land shortage in North Dakota. You can see this even in very populated countries.
Population is projected to have a downward trend over the next few hundred years.
As quality of living and healthcare improves, people on average have less than 2 kids. I actually wouldn’t be worried at all about overpopulation; many scientists who study it aren’t. We aren’t yet at the top of the curve, but we also aren’t projected to get even close to our carrying capacity.
As for food growing, hydroponics is quickly being a forerunner in food production. It uses less land and less chemicals to provide more food, and can be stacked to provide even more food in a small area. In the late 1800’s people were panicked because they were afraid everyone would starve to death as they couldn’t produce enough food. Then synthetic fertilizer was invented.

Grain crops certainly do take up a big amount of our fields, but one of those is corn; not edible corn but ethanol. I fully expect the market for ethanol to drop dramatically in the next few decades because it will no longer be needed for gasoline, which will free up a lot of land.

The pandemic and the resulting mandates had a bad effect on cities and it caused a lot of people to leave, which is why the suburban market has gone insane and caused home builders to go into a tizzy. But it will even out, and a lot of those people will move back. In my area a bunch already have. They didn’t like how quiet it was

IMO, The biggest problem that the horse world is going to face in the upcoming years is the reckoning on herbicide. Farmers have been relying heavily on them for decades to make quality hay, and it’s just now starting to come out that those herbicides have potentially devastating long term consequences that we don’t really understand yet. I would not be surprised if a large majority of the herbicides and pesticides that we currently use are banned or heavily regulated in the upcoming decades.

[lenapesadie]

I think it’s inevitable that the “horse scene” will change. But I don’t think it’s the end of horses.

My uneducated guess is that we’ll see more and more horses kept in home barns. People doing their own horse labor and investing in their own piece of real estate.

[cyanskies]

@lenapesadie

My uneducated guess is that we’ll see more and more horses kept in home barns. People doing their own horse labor and investing in their own piece of real estate.

With rising land prices, how many people are going to be able to afford private barns? If you only have 1-2 horses, boarding is way less expensive than the upkeep on a piece of property.

[lenapesadie]

We are speaking of a hypothetical future. My guess is that boarding is going to become harder to find and far higher priced. And that is going to lead to more horses in home barns where the costly labor portion of board costs can be comped so to speak by the owner and the owner can take advantage of the investment in RE.

I’ve got two horses myself. I put my money where my mouth is and bought a farmette. Board on two would run more than my mortgage.

[jlm0305]

I think that depends on how you keep your horses, where you live, etc. Even with upkeep and utilities, keeping my two horses at home costs 1/4 what it would to board them.

The difference in mortgage between my 2200 sqft suburb home and 3400 sqft hobby farm on 26 acres is less than board for one of my horses.

[Djones]

Wealthy people will have horses and poor people will have horses. The middle will find it impossible to justify or afford.

[CBoylen]

I believe the biggest problem is the animal rights movement combined with the separation of the majority of the population from any animal/farming/livestock background. It’s happening all around us now if you look at social media and news comments and the general public perception of horse sports. The public does not differentiate between disciplines. All horse sports need to band together for the greater good and not participate In internecine squabbling. The vegan/animal rights movement is going to anthropomorphize us all right out of existence even though most of them will have never seen a horse in person.

[lenapesadie]

I’m not sure on that. The middle will have to make compromises.

Definitely not wealthy here, not in poverty either. But we couldn’t afford to live at the beach and have two horses. We couldn’t afford to buy a big fancy house and horse acreage. We couldn’t afford to have kids and horses.

[lenapesadie]

That’s an interesting point.

[AskMyAccountant.17]

On the topic of horse prices, I’m not so sure. Looking for myself, I think it is going to be much harder to find an eventing prospect under mid-five-figures than it was five years ago. That being said, just because horse prices are increasing doesn’t mean the number of people able to buy is also increasing.

I think (this is my accounting background coming through) while the cost of producing horses has increased and simple less horses available that fit the sport market, the prices went up, those available to make that really hasn’t

That being said, I’m dealing with this issue currently. I’ve been selling sport ponies for a few years for breeders. At the price we’ve sold our ponies owners made a profit, not an exorbitant amount, but were in the green, but ponies were snatched up within one to two weeks too. It was a balance, perhaps a few grand more could have been made but not in the timeliness that we were able to place them in good homes. But breeders also had less investment up front. I had a large network of buyers. Since the shift in sales prices overall, breeders want to align their prices with the market. It’s now crickets. I just don’t have the same number of buyers able to meet those prices.

There are only so many smaller adults wanting young sport ponies, by increasing the prices of my ponies I’m just decreasing the already small numbers of people as potential buyers. Not to say they’re unfairly priced compared to the market, but I do think as a seller/breeder increasing prices because everyone else is without reflecting on your own target market may have a few horses selling for less than advertised or sitting a while.

[StormyDay]

@CBoylen

I believe the biggest problem is the animal rights movement combined with the separation of the majority of the population from any animal/farming/livestock background. It’s happening all around us now if you look at social media and news comments and the general public perception of horse sports. The public does not differentiate between disciplines. All horse sports need to band together for the greater good and not participate In internecine squabbling. The vegan/animal rights movement is going to anthropomorphize us all right out of existence even though most of them will have never seen a horse in person.

Personally I’m not super concerned about the PETA/Animal rights crowd. Many times the person screaming the loudest isn’t the most popular opinion. PETA and the like made a big noise, but most people do not agree with them or their policies.

Maybe it depends on the location. In LA there is a big thing going on with Griffith park and the pony rides. But, realistically, most people in LA never see a horse or understand horse keeping. So they might think the pony rides are akin to elephant rides; cruel.

Growing up, I lived on the west coast and I would say 70-80% of my friends had never pet a horse. It just wasn’t the culture to go out into the countryside. The people who did know I had horses wouldn’t have been caught dead at a stable. It was not considered a cool thing to do. I was never asked once for a ‘horse ride’.

In my area, DC, I would say that 90% of the population has had the chance to pet a cow, see horses, hold a chicken. The community puts a big emphasis on farming even though most of the farms are gone. The fairs have big ag/4H exhibitions, there’s community parks in the area that have farm demonstrations and opportunities to interact with farm animals, and a lot of people drive out to the farmers markets and stands which usually have farm animals to visit. On the weekends big crowds from DC come to the area to be out in the countryside.

Where I live now pretty much everyone who finds out I have horses wants to see them/pet them/ride them.

So, I think maybe the culture of the area affects how the population view horses and other farm animals.

[CBoylen]

Probably. An experiment though, the next time there is media coverage of an event or horse related story or other animal story in your area, don’t just read the comments on the posts shared by your friends. We all do that and think media coverage is so positive and welcome, but we are reading from our perspective and that of our horsey friends. Go instead to the original post or story at the news source and read those comments. That’s the general public perception. Generally, it’s frightening.

[Old_Mac_Donald]

Colombia just banned sport fishing. If you think that horse riding won’t be in the sights in the future, you are an ostrich.

GOOD NEWS: The Constitutional Court of Colombia ‘s Judgment C-148-22 has prohibited sport fishing, declaring it unconstitutional. The ban will take effect in one year.
The Full Chamber determined that the activity “violates the precautionary principle and the prohibition of animal abuse, and therefore, must be eliminated from the legal system.” This ruling adding to the national 2019 ban on sports hunting.
The Court advises that the mandate to protect animals stems from the principle of ecological constitution, the social function of property and human dignity, explaining that in this context, the Legislative branch and the Court have considered animals to be sentient beings.
Additionally, the Court concluded that the recreational purpose of sport fishing violates the prohibition of animal abuse derived from environmental protection mandates. It has no basis in the exceptions to animal abuse which is constitutionally guaranteed for religious, nutritional, cultural or scientific purposes.
Artisanal, industrial, subsistence, scientific, control, and other types of fishing will still be allowed.

[lenapesadie]

To be fair, we can’t seem to keep doping horses, punching horses or shocking them with electric spurs out of the media. So the animal rights folks have a lot to work with.

ETA forgot “soring horses”

[ElementFarm]

Well this had been a wholly depressing thread to read…

As others have mentioned, a lot of our perspective is tied to where we live. I just recently left a 5-yr job in DC. It was REALLY hard to ride there. Old historic farms and hunt country are 95% taken over by subdivisions or McMansions. Board is insane–well over $1K/month for the simplest basic stall board with small/limited turnout. And while less expensive and larger farms can be found further out, the tradeoff is being stuck in traffic for 1.5-3 hrs, seriously.

My farm is in a very, very horsey part of NC. While pretty farms with foundation access are often 6-figure plus, a modest farm in a neighboring town can be found in the $250-550K range. And those farms are currently selling in days/weeks in a blistering hot market. There are plenty of places that board, but so many of us just prefer having our own place and managing/doing labor and upkeep ourselves. While my mortgage is well over double what I’d pay on a decent single-family home and board for a horse, it gives me the flexibility to have more than a couple of horses. We’ve had as many as 10, though now trying to keep it to 6 or 7 based on expected hay prices this season. I can breed or buy young/project horses, and spend much less (in money, but more in time) to develop a nice show hunter for myself, that I could never afford if I was purchasing it as an 8yo with some mileage.

I think those of us bitten by the horse bug will find a way to keep horses in our lives, no matter the costs. We may sacrifice things like vacations, fancy cars, eating out, kids, etc, but even as a starving college student, I managed to keep a horse.

I do think horse showing is already becoming so elitist that many of us can’t afford to show seriously anymore. Hopefully the little schooling shows will continue to run, financed by people like me who just can’t spend thousands of dollars for a local A show weekend, let alone take off for Tryon, FL, etc for months at a time. As a result, I think we’re seeing some shifts in disciplines. Eventing is less expensive and very DIY-friendly. Fox hunting is a blast, and offers lots of riding opportunities for a single annual membership and some volunteer time. More and more people are content as strictly recreational riders.

From a breeding perspective, I’m delighted that breeders are finally able to market horses for more than what it costs them to produce those foals (people who don’t breed underappreciate how much it costs to get a healthy foal on the ground), but the flip side for sure is that fewer people can afford to buy those nice youngstock. I’m not sure what the answer is there.

In summary, I think horses will continue to have a place in our lives, and while competing may be cost-prohibitive for most of us, we will find ways to own and/or ride horses.

[lenapesadie]

I totally agree on your points regarding location and showing.

[MapleBreeze]

I think its fascinating in my area every re-rider or lesson mom thinks they can find a barn in under 30 minutes from the city. It has to be convenient…there and back in under 2 hours… but as thingd be one moee developed all that prime horse land is swallowed up by suburbia. Its not like getting your nails done at lunch.