Agreed he’s a beautiful horse. Maybe just built that way. Sounds like he has a really conscientious owner. Nothing wrong with investigating a concern.
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Has he ever had colic surgery? That will give them a fairly permanent low belly sag. But conformation also plays a big role.
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My trainer wants my warmblood to lose a bit of weight but in reality she mostly has TBs who get that lovely tuck, and my guy just always rocks a slight dad bod despite being fit and eating properly with a good topline. I always tell her if he was a person he’d grill a mean burger after he got back from crossfit. 
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Ok here’s a side shot. It’s been a little bit of a strange week so it took a few days. Without watching my regular ride schedule you will all have to trust he does lots of long and low, and I have good reason to believe he’s developed enough through his top line. And he’s quite willing to stretch down and move up from behind.
I did a little bit of research on the suggestion from @Scribbler and think hind gut gas could be a culprit. Two saddler fitters have told me my saddle fits (I do still have some suspicions) but he gets crabby about saddling, blanketing and mounting. I could be looking in the wrong place at saddle fit
And I have been getting a lot of grief from my barn mates about his mane lately and now that I see the photo I think they have a point 
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I’m glad you mentioned this because after seeing his back without a saddle on it and seeing how he carries himself, I would agree with you. There Is a lack of muscle on the side of his withers, behind his scapula (in the area of the trapezius muscle) and that is normally indicative of poor saddle fit. Unfortunately, there are a lot of not great saddle fitters out there. Coupled with this lack of muscling, the fact that he likes to drop his back when he goes, and that he is crabby about saddling, blanketing, and mounting, I would guess that the saddle is not comfortable for him and he probably has some back soreness.
This will relate to his belly, as when he drops his back to avoid the saddle he is not properly engaging his core and I would guess that he has a lack of muscling both on his abdominals and obliques. Once he is engaging his core properly, the abdominals and obliques will be more toned, therefore giving me appearance of less of a gut.
Moving forward, I would say to check with, unfortunately, a third saddle fitter, and not ride him until that issue has been solved. He would definitely benefit from a lot of work on the longe (without side reins) and also in long lines. If you have someone that can teach you how to long line, that is a great way to build strength. Once you are comfortable with longeing and long lining, he would also benefit from doing so over poles and cavalettis.
If you can share your location (I’m not sure if you had already), I’m sure there are a lot of people here that could make saddle fitter recommendations.
He is lovely and you’re doing the right thing by asking these questions!!
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I would take his “action shots” as the way he goes. He is very up once he starts jumping especially in the show ring. It’s very different from how he goes in the flat
@Amberley
I’m curious why you’re not a fan of alfalfa?
And he is a jumper not a hunter, so we try to keep them on the lower end of a healthy weight.
I love and trust my training program but ultimately I don’t know that our nutrition at a barn level is where I’d like it. I will bring up with my vet next time, it seems like it’s not quite right for him.
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Ahh understood that makes more sense. His shedding is quite normal, and he has no lack of energy so I would be surprised if it was PPID but I think it’s a pretty simple test anyway. He gets his teeth done soon so I’ll inquire then
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I am also pretty suspicious about saddle fit with these new photos and additional information. In addition to the places he is lacking muscle pointed out above, he’s too developed in the under neck, hamstrings and in front of the scapula in comparison to the trapezius and glutes. I do not think he is over fat, but he probably is not utilizing his core and entire topline enough to make up for his larger barrel and lack of defined girth groove conformation.
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I agree with the points made above about his top line. That big bulge of “wrong muscle” above the scapula on the left side is a tell tale sign of a horse that carries himself wrong. The shadows make it impossible to see if it’s also on the right side. If it isn’t, that is interesting asymmetry too.
Also I notice he’s not standing square in front. IME a horse in good shape typically stands square in front by default, and may stand square behind too. Does he usually stand with one front foot forward?
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Not to pile on, but this was my old WB to a T.
I was young and didn’t know better, and never realized that the wither hollows (not as pronounced as yours, but there) and my saddle wanting to slide back or shoot saddle pads out the back was a sign that the saddle didn’t fit well.
He was a slow saint on the flat, a great equitation horse. Over fences, he was up and quick, and had a habit of landing and making a bid after the fences. He was worse at shows.
Now I think the saddles didn’t fit and he felt it particularly on the landing side of fences. Plenty of horses are hotter over fences than on the flat, but that’s another clue to throw in with his muscling and abdomen that a saddle fit check (again 
) might be in order. That, and some remedial groundwork and protein supplementation. Good luck!
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Sigh. We do have two more independent saddle fitters in the area. One I like a lot but I didn’t use her this time around because there is some bad blood between her and some people at the barn but I will give her a call. I’ve known in my gut that something was wrong with that saddle and am feeling pretty frustrated that I sunk so much money into a saddle that doesn’t fit after consulting experts. And honestly the saddle that I had before I think fit him much better
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I’m sorry. 
I know how incredibly frustrating that is, I’ve seen multiple clients go through the same thing. Hopefully if your current saddle is not, in fact, a good fit, you can get most (all?) of your money back when you sell it.
Even though it’s frustrating, you’re doing the right thing. If he’s already going well for you now, think of how much better he’ll be with the proper saddle!!
At 16, how couldn’t it be a good idea to pull insulin and ACTH?
