Good Guinness Missing

[2bayboys]

One of the most horrific crimes my agency has ever been involved in, a brutal and senseless abduction and murder of a delivery man, was solved within two days because the STUPID criminals used the victim’s credit card immediately after the crime to buy cigarettes and beer! :eek: Which was caught on surveillance video. Which led to the identification of STUPID bad guy. Which led to his arrest less than 48 hours after the murder because he was using the credit card again at a WalMart!!

Lots and lots of criminals are really not very bright and do really believe they will not get caught.

[equinelaw]

And lots of them are very smart, but its the thrill of the game they love, not just a profit motive. They take risks because its no fun if there is no danger of discovery. Or they are so full of themselves they think they are too clever or too charming to pay any price.

I run across that all the time. I say “Well, they wouldn’t be that stupid, would they?” But now I can just answer the question myself. Yes. And what consequences? Before COTH and the internet there were no real consequences except if you messed with an insurance company.

You can’t have a story with boy meets girl unless boy then loses girl and gets girl back. So boy must be aware of the scheme but for the love of a good woman turns his back on his cheating father and earns the trust of the girl. This may require the use of a boombox or whatever the young folks use to play music these days. Perhaps a heartfelt You-tube confession that is used to get all the bad guys thrown in jail!

[cloudyandcallie]

Those guys killed horses (and at least one human) for over 20 years before they got caught, and they only got caught after they killed Brach. We’ll never know how many horses were killed for the insurance money. And that doesn’t include all the barn fires that happened.

We have serial murderers of people in the USA who have never been caught and travel around virtually unknown to law enforcement. Killing horses has been much easier and will continue.

BTW bayboys, our (armed robbery) killers in Atlanta always used the victims’ cell phones to call their girlfriends (plural) and mothers, so they were pretty easy to track down.

[BlueBobRadar]

Glad to see an explanation on the homepage of the Chronicle!

[vxf111]

No, everyone doesn’t get caught. But a lot of people do. Even if it takes time.

Regardless, that misses the point. The point is that many dishonest people don’t weigh the consequences before they act. So to argue “this couldn’t have been intentional because it didn’t/wouldn’t work” doesn’t really fly, at least IMHO.

I think some types even LIKE thinking they did something quasi-obvious, right under people’s noses, and didn’t get caught. That’s a thrill for some types.

[pines4equines]

Hay

A question: If the imposter horse went to FLA for WEG, why wasn’t he clipped? He’s all fuzzy in the photos? Is that the real pict of the imposter horse?

[equinelaw]

IDK. But Hay! The Holsteiner Con Air is a breeding stallion. Maybe the chip gives his sires name? Thus the Impostor horse really is named Kanye and his chip is in the name of his sire and some other complicated stuff I am too lazy to look up. Like how they keep their sire name until they earn their wings and get real names of their own? Like . . . Rudolph:)

[hb]

@Phaxxton;3942807

How would a microchip have helped locate the real GG any faster? Do you anticipate trainers scanning microchips when horses arrive at their facility?

ETA – I know it would help positively identify the horses… but I’m not sure it would have helped FIND GG any faster in this situation.

Also, I assume GG was microchipped… otherwise, how did they get a positive ID so fast today?

What if horses were scanned for chips at horse shows, to help be sure they were the right horse showing?

[Dun_Ciarain]

[QUOTE=hb;3960916]
What if horses were scanned for chips at horse shows, to help be sure they were the right horse showing?[/QUOTE]

Since horses are constantly coming and going at shows, especially big shows, you would need to scan them every time they entered the ring to make sure it was the right horse. I can see it now - a scanning fee of $5 added to every class :mad:

[MagicRoseFarm]

[QUOTE=Ambrey;3959336]
But the day before the big show, the winning of which is the only way to straighten everything out and have a happily ever after, GG turns up lame. Fortunately, the big hearted, thought to be less talented Kanye is still there, and she is able to ride the GP clean and everybody, including Kanye, gets a happily ever after.[/QUOTE]

I need my box of kleenex, definite academy awards in this one…

[2LaZ2race]

[QUOTE=2bayboys;3958705]
:yes::yes::yes:

It IS just like a bad Hollywood film, because we are all supposed to suspend disbelief and accept the story as it is being fed to us.[/QUOTE]

Can we make it a Bollywood Film so there’s bright colors and dancing horses? :lol:

[galwaybay]

[QUOTE=cloudyandcallie;3959928]
Those guys killed horses (and at least one human) for over 20 years before they got caught, and they only got caught after they killed Brach. We’ll never know how many horses were killed for the insurance money. And that doesn’t include all the barn fires that happened.

We have serial murderers of people in the USA who have never been caught and travel around virtually unknown to law enforcement. Killing horses has been much easier and will continue.

BTW bayboys, our (armed robbery) killers in Atlanta always used the victims’ cell phones to call their girlfriends (plural) and mothers, so they were pretty easy to track down.[/QUOTE]

Actually it was the other way around, Brach “disappeared” in 1977 it wasn’t; those involved w/ the insurance fraud/horse murders went on trial in the 1990’s… Richard Baily was convicted insurance fraud & Helen Brachs’ murder in 1995.

[Midge]

Barney Ward has done two things very suiccessfully for the last 40 or so years. He has made a living buying and selling horses and he has made his kid into one of the best riders in the country.

You don’t make a living buying and selling horses by ignoring the profit motive. I think everything Barney has ever done has been for money. The whole insurance fraud was based on money, not some thrill of getting away with something. Everyone has a point where they would do pretty much anything for money. Barney’s bar was just set a whole lot lower than most people’s.

If there is no money to be made, he isn’t going to bother, especially if it was easier to go the other way.

[DMK]

Sheesh, Midge, would you just stop with the logic already? :lol:

[vxf111]

Profit motive doesn’t equal intelligence or aversion to risk.

There WAS a profit motive here-- sell/lease much MORE valuable horse than what you paid/trader for. And it scheme worked for 6 months, if the imposter GG had sold-- it might have gone entirely undetected. This plan was a shade or two away from WORKING?!

[Midge]

I know! You’d think I could walk away from this thread but I just can’t get past the fact there was NOTHING to gain by trading the horses in order to lease out the better one-NOTHING.

It’s like the old math problems.

Low Junior lease fee is lesser, greater, or equal to, purchase price of children’s jumper.

ETA-and it wasn’t a shade or two away from working. It was years away from working as the wrong horse continued to walk around the horse show as Good Guinness and GG continued to show. Some one DID put that together. They knew the horse showing as Kanye was GG.

[vxf111]

Duplicate post, I am having internet issues

[Moesha]

Bollywood Movie Poster…

Bollywood is on it!!!..here is the movie poster for our coth production on this saga…

http://i.indiafm.com/posters/movies/08/merebaappehleaap/still2.jpg

[vxf111]

But GG isn’t a low junior horse (that might be what he happened to be doing while leased but that wasn’t his value because he has more scope/experience/capability)! That’s the difference. Do you think the price of a confirmed Grand Prix horse (average or above-average) is equal to the value of a child/adult jumper?

It’s trading a 5 figure horse for a 6 figure horse!

1/3 of $250,000 (low estimate for a jumps by braille GP horse) for a year is $83,000 AND at the end of the year you get the horse back to re-lease and/or sell (and for all we know, the lessee had an agreement to potentially buy the horse at the end of the lease)

Child/adult jumper is $50,000 (high estimate) and you don’t get it back after you sell

Even assuming the lease was based on the value of a junior jumper. That’s GOT to be valued more than a child/adult jumper and even if the lease fee is equal to the sale price-- with a lease you still OWN the asset at the end. It’s not comparable or equal.

Even assuming an incremental difference in value… At the end of a year, which scenario has you better off financially…

A. You sell a horse for $25,000

B. You lease a horse worth $35,000 for one year for $11,000 and then he comes back

Scenario A, you have $25,000. Scenario B you have $11,000 plus an asset, perhaps a bit depreciated, but worth in the neighborhood of $35,000

[Moderator_1]

While it’s interesting to speculate on theories about how the mix-up occurred, as we’ve noted before, there are no charges of foul play involved, so accusations shouldn’t be made here.

If there are further developments in the case, we can reopen the thread, but barring that, please see the news coverage in the Chronicle.

Thanks and congrats to the COTHers for solving the mystery!

Mod 1