Horse market and inflation?

[twostinkydogs]

I’ve been seriously searching for 6-7 months, window shopping about 2 years. Just in the last week it feels like there are more horses for sale. I’ve had 2 trainers respond immediately and comprehensively to requests for info about a horse and offer to show them this weekend instead of “if you can get here in an hour, you might have a shot”. But that could be the time of year.

I’ve believed the market will turn for a while, like waiting for a very slow shoe to drop that’s been held afloat with once in a lifetime stimulus funding. There is nothing fundamentally sound about the house, horse or stock markets in the last 2 years. Yes there are potential causes like WFH and hedge funds buying up houses, but income increases aren’t tracking with price increases and sooner or later the rubber will hit the road. Especially if the Fed raises rates and there are significant dips in the house and stock markets which when high, tend to make people feel wealthy on paper.

[Obsidian_Fire]

The last time the economy went down, 2008-ish, around here we saw people dumping their horses. Literally, into the hills around here.
Right now hay is ~450/ton, or more. I fully expect to be paying 600/ton this summer if prices on fuel don’t start dropping in a hurry.
I’m in Oregon, for reference.
I know that’s not really what the OP’s question was, but it does affect horse prices.

[lenapesadie]

In 2008 ish we had folks wake up with extra horses in their pastures

[quietann]

@Heinz_57

At least where I’m at, 2 string bales of grass-type hay can generally weigh from 45 to 85lb, sometimes you’ll see 2 string alfalfa bales that are more like 90-100. A 3 string bale of grass, here, is generally in the 100-140lb range. My neighbor puts up stubby 3 string bales that are more like 90lb, and are impossible to stack normally due to the weird dimensions.

Thank you! It is very difficult to find alfalfa here, so haven’t had direct experience with it. The bales at my barn have been a little heavier recently – maybe 60 pounds, but there’s a lot of variation from load to load. But I now know that when someone reports paying $25+ for a bale of hay, someone needs to ask “2 string or 3?”

[LilyandBaron]

I just saw an update on a local FB group about a “price adjustment” on a local horse property, so I think the housing market may also be getting hit - I haven’t seen a lot of price drops on cute properties in a while!

[LilyandBaron]

Well, not sure if just inflation or better weather but a few ads/sellers are dropping prices to make room for new horses in training. Great for buyers but I legit hope we don’t see more horses suffering due to the economic woes:(

[outerbanks77]

@LilyandBaron

I just saw an update on a local FB group about a “price adjustment” on a local horse property, so I think the housing market may also be getting hit - I haven’t seen a lot of price drops on cute properties in a while!

Not here. Staff meeting this morning was talking about our new remote work station options, which prompted me to check horse property prices on the “cheaper” side of the state. Still looking at a shade under a million for a nice by not extravagant house on 5 acres. Just noticed the Zillow estimate on our house jumped back up by $20K. I am worrying about boarding stables getting squeezed out by the continuous development, and it could eventually force me to sell one of mine as board prices (an potentially driving distance to viable barns) increase.

[SusanO]

Well the prices were down in the monthly lower end horse auction Saturday. I don’t know if it was because of the economy or because we were having the coldest weather of the year. Pretty fierce north wind too. A lot of “no sales” and no 30k prices. Ponies were still selling well and no slaughter prices that I could tell on Facebook. So I don’t know if this is a sign of something or not.

[Gwyneth]

I’m in Canada, and the horse market here is absolutely insane. It’s impossible to buy a semi-nice horse for under 10k (even fresh OTTBs are selling for ~8k). And all of these horses are selling! I’ve noticed that when an ad goes up, it usually has a “pending sale” tag in the next couple of days.

I bought my last horse just under 2 years ago, and if I had to buy her in the current market, I wouldn’t be able to afford her. Inflation is making everything skyrocket in price here. Most boarding barns have increased their rates by $100-$200.

I just bought a bale of a different type of hay to test it out for my horses at $30CAD a bale! (which I believe converts to about $23USD).

I’m worried about how anyone will be able to afford horses here in the near future…

[StormyDay]

I’d expect that the horse market will stay strong until about September/October and then start falling. That’s when I’d expect the cost of hay to really hit and people won’t want to have extra sales horses sitting around. In some parts of the country it may hit slightly earlier.
I don’t expect we will see the real cost of a bale of hay until early next fall. People still have reserves of hay sitting around and a large portion of the country will feed either very little or no hay in the summertime.

My more major concern is that the price of gas will cause both grain and human food to skyrocket in price; corn, oats, etc. With hay, some of the farmers can cut some costs this year (for instance my hay supplier won’t be fertilizing most of his hay fields this year, and told us he will only be using weed killer on the ones that absolutely need it. A family friend switched to using cow/horse manure (free) as fertilizer for all of the cow hay this year)
But other crops are more regulated and don’t get that luxury.

[TarheelJD]

Sort of off topic, but I’ve never really understood the whole “Most people don’t need a $30,000 horse. They need a $1,000 horse and $29,000 worth of lessons” thing quoted above.

Generally, someone is going to learn a whole lot more, a lot faster, and be a lot safer while they are learning, on a well trained $30,000 horse than a $1,000 greenie. If they have the means to buy the $30,000 horse, good for them. Why the shade?

[lenapesadie]

On topic!

In my area, a horse (elderly stallion) was dropped off at someone’s private farm. As of now, no one has come forward to claim him. Methinks the dumping of unwanted horses has begun.

[LilyandBaron]

Oh, no:( Hope the unwanted stud will be in safe hands.

I am looking at horses, and one seller actually commented that she’d had an interested buyer but she backed off because of inflation…

[lenapesadie]

Out in force.

Another gravely injured and starving horse found in a wildlife management area

[soloudinhere]

I personally shelved my search because I am 100% sure that hay prices this summer are going to make it a bad idea to have 2 horses on full board.

[Einhorn]

Same here

[LilyandBaron]

I’m fortunate my horses are at home, and I have enough money to feed one more even with inflation.
We’ve been focused on home improvements the last few years, but with those things done/paid off, there’s money for another mouth to feed.

Thinking how to phrase this, knowing humor is very easily lost in translation, but just noting that while clearly I don’t want anyone to legit suffer due to the economic landscape, if the only negative impact is some people holding off on shopping right now, that makes it good for me in terms of more horses available and maybe lower prices. But yeah, no way to say that at all without looking tacky, lol. Hooray for me! HA!

[eightpondfarm]

On topic:
One of my feral horses is officially a Riding Horse! As of yesterday…stood happily at mounting block, didn’t even flinch when i mounted. And went steadily forward and circled right and left. (all at a walk). It has been such a joy to watch and mold him into a pleasure mount. I have no idea what he would be valued at, not much i assume. But he was one of those that came from a KY strip mined mountain top about three years ago. People just turned out their horses and they bred, and starved, and bred. This guy was caught as a yearling.

Off topic:
I suppose it’s all a matter of what you want out of your horse life.
You can learn to be rider of a made horse, for what-ever discipline, and ride that horse well in that discipline.
…but you can learn to be a good rider by riding thirty or forty different horses. Where else does one get that experience except in lessons?

[SLW]

A 1990 built home with barn on 10 acres 1/2 mile from me had a contract 2 days after it was listed. This was 2 weeks ago. I live rural and for 2 years anything with land sells ASAP. It’s been surreal.

[twostinkydogs]

Bumping - I am curious what are people seeing with respect to horse prices now? March feels like ancient history now that mortgages are 6+%, gas is $5/gallon, and the stock market is a yoyo with a serious gravity problem.

Prices in mid-Atlantic seem slightly less high and volume has ticked up a bit. I am starting to see more possibilities at the very top end of my budget but very little in the mid-range. The top-end ones I’ve tried have left me feeling like I can’t quite justify the price.