I am always amazed when honest people think they know all about what dishonest people will do. That they can logically reason through the dishonest person’s decision process.
None of us (assuming all are ‘honest’) have any idea what dishonest people will do. We don’t live in that head space.
Dishonest people are not logical thinkers. There is little long-term future in their actions, but they carry on anyway. Some make a ridiculous amount of effort for a small payoff. Some get caught because they repeat the same schemes over and over. Some are high and/or addled from substance abuse. And so on and so forth.
And, most get away with what they do. So we have only experienced the few who were dumb enough to get caught. Not exactly a reliable sample of how dishonest people work.
Whatever. Doesn’t really matter. I don’t know if the OP will update us, but it was an interesting scenario.