How can he “see softbone”? He also seems to be mixing breeding genetics (e.g., poor conformation) with environmental factors (e.g. too much high carb feeds) …sorta a mishmash of thoughts/opinion.
1 Like
The seeing soft bone thing was a problem for me too. But this was actually my favorite sentence from the article:
“Most equestrians are warmbloods.”
I’m still shaking my head about that. :lol:
5 Likes
I had to sit on my hands to not look up the definition of “equestrian.” I thought they were all human. Silly me.
Ill argue this point til the cows come home. There is not a horse shortage; if there were, the bottom of the market wouldnt be so deplorable. Its not a horse shortage, its an owner shortage. There used to be a decent market to buy good looking yearlings, no matter their pedigree, in the $10-20k range and sell them for a nice little profit as 2 year olds. Many pinhookers made a good living doing that. They wouldnt make huge money, but they’d sell 10 or 12 2 year olds for $40-50k each. That market is gone. That “useful horse” market for 2 year olds has vanished, so it followed that the market for that yearling has vanished. Look at the last couple of days at Keeneland. Theres plenty of horses. Its just that no one is buying.
3 Likes
It is in the regional markets too. There is no buyer for “just a horse”. Everyone is on the top twenty percent and if that is your horse, you benefit from artificial inflation. But if your horse is in the bottom 50 % in pedigree, looks or conformation, you can’t even give that horse away. My consignor, who has been doing this since the seventies, seemed a little shook up when he told me that he had okay horses that buyers didn’t want at any price. These are the $10 - 20k horse that you are talking about. They X Ray and scope okay but maybe they are a little small or a bit ordinary. It’s a really scary place to be if you are a commercial breeder.
2 Likes
You’d have to back that up with statistics showing the % unsold has increased. The bottom of the market has always been bad. It’s well documented that foal crops have been steadily decreasing yet races still don’t fill and racing days decrease.
I didnt say the percentage unsold has increased. Im saying that the yearling you could have sold for $25,000 several years ago is now only selling for $10,000, and thats if you are really lucky. You would think that would be opportunity to resell for a decent profit, but that market has also dried up. The money now is for the top 20%. The money is inflated for them, so much so that its taking racing partnerships and syndicates to be able to play at the lofty levels, where before there were 5, 6, 7 guys that you knew were bidding on those top horses. The better horses have gotten way over valued, because thats what people want. Yes, the bottom has always been bad, but the gap between the bottom and the top is widening. Take for example the Keeneland sale back in September. Just take the last 4 days, when 1000 horses sold. That number, in and of itself, would be a good sized sale. The average for those 4 days was $15,000 and the median $10,275. I have no doubt that of the 500 horses that sold under the median, that few if any made money. In fact its safe to say nearly all lost money, and the majority of them were happy to have gotten out from under that yearling at any price, because they can’t afford to carry that yearling to a 2 year old sale and lose even more money. Not much of a business model there.
2 Likes
You said that there is an owner shortage, and you want to debate until the cows come home. You have not shown that at all. You are all over the place with numbers, none of which indicate there are significantly fewer owners. If anything, the syndicates increase the number of owners.
Syndicates increase the numbers of owners at the top end. Thats what I said. There arent syndicates buying the $10,000 horses. The last 4 days at Keeneland it was a ghost town, there was no one there buying. Prices go down when no one is buyng, be it horses, real estate, or anything else.
You are really not making this ^^^ point.
Foal crop chart.
http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=2
Handy dandy stats on races, starts, field size
If there is a horse shortage, why did 25% of the yearlings offered at the 2019 Keeneland September sale go unsold?
Okay, I will answer my own question. :lol:
Because 10% of buyers want a perfect horse and are willing to pay six figures and up to buy it.
The other 90% of buyers want a near perfect horse and expect to pay under 50K to buy it, leading to a 25% rna rate.
There is a shortage of owners who are willing to pay what it costs to buy (or breed) a good yearling, train it and race it.
I agree with halo. The number of horses isn’t the problem. The lack of people willing to invest in racing anywhere but at the top, is.
3 Likes
I don’t see a huge drop in numbers according to Keeneland’s website. In fact, the number of yearlings sold increased in 2019 over some past years. Especially considering the declining foal crops. Can you explain the numbers, or provide additional information? These numbers contradict what you are saying.
Add to that, much of the yearling “middle market” (I don’t know where to find a solid %age) seems to be dominated by a few deep-pocketed pinhookers. My perception could be wrong…
1 Like
The Keeneland figured you cited only shows how many horses were sold at each sale. There’s some useful info missing (# of horses cataloged, outs, RNA rate)
The number of yearling offered also increased in 2019, which is why the number sold is higher than in 2017 and 2106.
2019 cataloged: 4,644, sold 2,855
2018 cataloged: 4,538, sold 2916
2017 cataloged: 4,138, sold 2555
2016: cataloged 4,479, sold 2792
(Catalogued number does not include outs, so the buyback rate cannot be reliably calculated from these figures.)
I’m too lazy to pull numbers for earlier years. You think it’s a horse problem, I think it’s an owner problem. I can agree to disagree.
2 Likes
I think the same thing is happening in saddle and show horses as well.
1 Like
That’s fine. But Keeneland September is not the only sale. There are many sales, as well as claiming races and horses being purchased privately. And most horses get sold multiple times. So maybe drawing a conclusion about the number of owners based on one auction is not the best way to determine whether or not there is an increase, decrease or no change in number of owners. I am not saying you are not right, I just don’t agree with your data source as being representative of the population.
Maybe a useful number to also look at is the cost to have a racehorse and the changes in tax laws since the 1980s.
I would agree based only on non-statistical information that it is the lack of owners. I am old and remember when middle class people (with middle class horses 
) bred and raced (pre-1980)-some had day jobs they went to after training hours (and actually could get stalls at the track --likely not now!) .Curious, what is the monthly day training bill /vet bills on an average horse in training at a mile track?
I did find it interesting that there were horses qualified for the Breeders Cup horses that were “cheap” -under $20,000 purchases -but you still have the monthly per day/vet bills etc.and of course the original purchase amount at risk.
1 Like
I’m a little dumbfounded that anyone would try to argue there is a literal “horse shortage.” Yes, that phrase gets kicked around, but those saying it do not mean it literally. There is a shortage of racehorses in training for a number of complicated reasons, with most reasons being directly related to cost.
We’d all be rolling in $$$$ if it was only horse flesh in demand.
1 Like
How would you describe the relationship between the number of races being written each day, field sizes, and number of horses, using real data? What ultimately makes the racing world go round are betting dollars, and what attracts betting dollars are large fields. One quick google search will find the data.
Because there aren’t enough owners to fund horses to run in the number of races we have.
Real data: https://www.equibase.com/stats/View…=year&tb=owner
Just click on each year and see how the number of owners decreases: from 38,405 in 2000 to 24,651 in 2018. I’m not counting this year because it’s not over yet.
You can fill every stall at every racetrack in America with a horse, but if no one is willing to pay for those horses’ training, you’re not going to be able to fill races.
Water seeks water. As racing loses its benefactors, then everything adjusts accordingly. Foal crops drop. Field size drops. Number of races drop.
3 Likes
