Those statistics sound compelling. It sounds as if reserpine just isn’t in use and cross-contamination is so scarce it’s practically non-existent.
But statistics can be misleading. To understand better what those numbers are telling us, we have to know more … especially, what percentage of horses competing were tested? At each competition … and in the entire population of horses competing at competitions where there was testing? How many total horses were in the population? Etc.
As an example, if in a group of 1,000 horses, 10 are tested for substances and all come up clean … does that mean that those substances are not in use among the 1,000? Hardly. It wasn’t a big enough sample to be a strong indicator.
If the population is only 100 horses and 10 are tested and are clean, that’s a stronger indication … but with only 10% tested it can still miss a some amount of substance use in the population. Still not a strong predictor.
There is also a lot of stuff about sub-groups with certain characteristics that are more likely or less likely to be trying to get away with substances than others and were they sampled, etc. & so on. It’s frankly a bias that the top placings are targeted, because those competitors largely do anticipate finishing high in the rankings and must assume they will be tested. Middle/lower rank ambitions know they have a very small chance of being tested.
So … for the Clifton horses, only 6 tests out of 65-85 horses that were on the grounds in FEI stabling during the entire competition? I am afraid that doesn’t tell me much, personally, about how many horses that weren’t sampled might have tested positive as well. If we say hypothetically that the Clifton horses picked it up innocently, several more horses that weren’t tested could easily have had the same exposure. As others have posted earlier, testing all the horses stabled in the same area would be interesting.
It doesn’t seem to me that the testing is being done in a way to create good statistics. It’s just to scare the competitors into staying clean - or appearing to - in case they are tested, especially if they anticipate they will finish with a high placing.
Back in the day, one of my graduate statistics professors liked to point out that most of the statistics published in the media don’t really show what they seem to show. Often what they show, mathematically, is not much of anything. 