Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

[Glimmerglass]

Post draws: Arkansas Derby & Blue Grass Derby

$750,000 Blue Grass Stakes

worth noting: last Blue Grass winner to also win the KY Derby? 1991’s Strike the Gold

PP Horse, Jockey, ML Odds

1. Little Cliff, Corey Nakatani, 10-1
2. Bluegrass Cat, John Velazquez, 5-2
3. Storm Treasure, Mark Guidry, 15-1
4. Strong Contender, Edgar Prado, 4-1
5. First Samurai, Rafael Bejarano, 8-5
6. Court Folly, Javier Castellano, 12-1
7. Sinister Minister, Garrett Gomez, 15-1
8. Sadler’s Trick, Julien Leparoux, 15-1
9. Seaside Retreat, Patrick Husbands, 15-1

First Samurai is the ML favorite, however he’s yet to win a race over 1-mile in distance

$1-million Arkansas Derby (G2)

PP Horse, Jockey

1. New Joysey Jeff, Jose Valdivia Jr.
2. Steppenwolfer , Robby Albarado
3. High Cotton , Christopher De Carlo
4. With a City , Brice Blanc
5. Lawyer Ron , John McKee
6. Well Said , James Graham
7. Jealous Profit , Aaron Gryder
8. Private Vow , Shaun Bridgmohan
9. Red Raymond , Luis Quinonez
10. Simon Pure , Jon Court
11. Nob Hill Deelite , Corey Lanerie
12. Superfly , Willie Martinez
13. Film Fortune , Terry Thompson
14. Sayhellotolarry , Calvin Borel

[stfatpony]

Sweetnorthernsaint is partially owned by a good friend of our family.
He was also third in the Gotham this year. We are all excited about his trip to KY.

[Glimmerglass]

Update on “Showing Up”

The Tagg trained colt with just two starts (both wins) is still trying for the Derby, but it looks increasingly slim. The Preakness seems both a bit more realistic and likely more fair to him …

TB Times 4-12-06 “Unbeaten Showing Up expected to make next start in Lexington Stakes”

… next start in the $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) on April 22 at Keeneland Race Course.

“It’s a shot in the dark anyway,” Tagg said from his barn at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday. "We’re doing it because he’s come around so well and done everything so easy, although it’s probably not the smartest thing in the world to try and push him into something like the Derby.

“But we’ll put him in [the Lexington] and see how he does around two turns. If anything, it should set him up nicely for the Preakness [Stakes on May 20.]”

[Xctrygirl]

Hmmm I’m at Belmont. I knew about the work, yet I seem to know more that Glimmer

Anyway wait til the Lexington is over. Then watch the retractions fly. Maybe anyway.

Or I could just be teasing y’all.

~Emily

[Glimmerglass]

Like Showing Up, Strong Contender has just 2 starts

… but unlike Showing Up (and this is no knock on him) Strong Contender is being seen as a real threat in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass with no prior stakes races and just two starts.

the “odds” per the Courier-Journal:

AGAINST THE ODDS

What Strong Contender would be up against in the Kentucky Derby:

Last horse to win off three career starts: Regret (1915)
Last horse to win off four career starts: Exterminator (1918)
Last horses to attempt Derby off three career starts: Desert Hero, Valhol (1999)
Last horse to win off two starts at 3: Sunny’s Halo (1983) **
Record of horses with two starts at 3 since 1983: 0-5-1 in 32 starts.
Last horse to win off only one prior stakes: Proud Clarion (1967)
Last horse to win off only one start at 2: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000)

** Sunny’s Halo also had 9 starts as a 2-yrs old

Courier-Journal 4-13-06 “Strong Contender or pretender?”

The raves for Strong Contender started in full force a year ago when he breezed a quarter-mile in 212/5 seconds before Keeneland’s 2-year-old sale. Like Monarchos, his sire is Maria’s Mon and he has stamina-laden stallion Roberto on his dam’s side. He wound up the sales topper at $800,000.

“He had all the parts,” Oxley said. "It was just a horse I felt we had to have. … Naturally, you expect to have more than two races, but this was definitely the objective in my mind, the Kentucky Derby.

“But it is a big assignment, because usually you don’t go from two races to go around two turns for the first time, in graded stakes for the first time against multiple graded-stakes winners. … To have expectations of winning is quite unusual, but I think this horse is exceptional.”

[SeaOat]

I’ll have to pull for Sweetnorthernsaint since my SO is the one who castrated him There you have it, my big connection to the big horse, who just galloped in the Illinois w/out those little additions!

[Glimmerglass]

Blue Grass Stakes

Sinister Minster TROUNCED the field for a 12 3/4 lengths win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes! He was on the back stretch already a solid 8 lengths a head of the field and nobody ever threatened him.

Storm Treasure and Strong Contender finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

I think this shows clear evidence that First Samurai is over his head at a distance over 1-mile. He’ll likely go to the Derby but it almost begs the question - why?

Bluegrass Cat was a distant 4th.

I made a nice little bit of profit on the race

[Glimmerglass]

Arkansas Derby - no surprises

I think the verdict was reached and the attorney won - easily Steppenwolfer, who is geared for the distance, will be great for the Belmont as he repeated his 2nd place to Lawyer Ron.

Lawyer Ron will go to the Kentucky Derby in a trio of top talent joining Barbaro and Brother Derek. The rest of the Derby potential field just isn’t performing at the level these three have.

[furlong47]

@Glimmerglass

I think this shows clear evidence that First Samurai is over his head at a distance over 1-mile. He’ll likely go to the Derby but it almost begs the question - why?

Before the race – Frank Brothers had mentioned that if First Samurai didn’t do well in the Bluegrass (win, or run a good race to place or show) he probably wouldn’t be entered in the Derby. Though obviously, trainers often say one thing and do another.

I did like First Samurai last year, but with his recent performances I don’t think that he belongs in the Derby.

[Glimmerglass]

An interesting view - East Coast (prepped) horses aren’t cutting it …

FL Sun Sentinal 4-16-06 "Taking a beating; East Coast contenders look like Derby pretenders

As for what many considered the East Coast’s top Derby hopefuls, Strong Contender and Bluegrass Cat finished third and fourth, respectively, in the Blue Grass beaten between 17-20 lengths. First Samurai was no factor in fifth.

Pletcher, who nominated 38 horses to the Triple Crown, could be down to two Derby starters, Keyed Entry, who finished third in the Wood and is suspect at the Derby’s 11/4-mile distance, and Sunriver, third in the Florida Derby. Even trainer Nick Zito may not have a Derby entry after his Little Cliff ran eighth in the Blue Grass.

But this much is clear: Five of the past six winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes spent the spring prepping in California or Arkansas. On the evening of May 6, judging by the past two weekends, that statistic could read six of the past seven.

[adventurebeachponies]

I am also rooting hard for Sweet Northern Saint… I have a Sweet Southern Saint filly in training and dad’s stock rising is a very good thing!

[JER]

I watched the Bluegrass replay… wow!

Quite a run by Sinister Minister. He left the gate flying and never even acknowledged the rest of the field.

[Glimmerglass]

A need for speed on May 6th!

Can we all say speed duel to the first turn at the Derby?

The latest Top 10 poll from the Courier Journal drops Barbaro down from 3rd to 5th and pulls in Sinister Minister into the 10th slot.

One has to wonder since Sinister Minister will not rate and will not settle into 2nd if he isn’t going to be this year’s Spanish Chestnut. An unintended rabbit for the field who could burn out Brother Derek which maybe is Bob Baffert’s plan - with Bob and John to overtake an exhausted field;)

Louisville Courier Journal Original Top 10 poll for April 16, 2006

Horse Owner Trainer Last Week

1. Brother Derek Cecil Peacock Dan Hendricks 1
2. Lawyer Ron Estate of James T. Hines Jr. Bob Holthus 2
3. A. P. Warrior Stan Fulton John Sherriffs 4
4. Sweetnorthernsaint Joseph J. Balsamo Michael Trombetta 9
5. Bob and John Stonerside Stable LLC Bob Baffert 4
6. Barbaro Lael Stables Michael Matz 3
7. Point Determined Beverly Lewis Bob Baffert 6
8. Steppenwolfer Robert E. & Lawana L. Low Daniel Peitz [NR]
9. Jazil Shadwell Farm LLC Kiaran McLaughlin 10
10. Sinister Minister Bernard Schiappa Bob Baffert [NR]

Steppenwolfer looks to be a great choice for finishing in the money. He is content to sit back, let speed take over then stalk and close. With his ‘gearing’ for distance the 1 1/4 mi will be fine for him

Associated Press Top 10 for April 16, 2006

This week’s top 10, with final Derby future wager odds:

1. Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, trainer, Alex Solis, jockey): Early Derby favorite will have company up front in Derby. … Set for workout this week at Santa Anita; expected to be in Louisville on April 25. … Next start: Kentucky Derby (May 6) … Odds: 5-1.

2. Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Six in a row after sweeping aside 12 rivals in Arkansas Derby. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 8-1.

3. Barbaro (Michael Matz, Edgar Prado): Unbeaten colt training at Keeneland, with workout expected next Sunday. … Galloped on the main track Sunday, with gallops planned on the Polytrack during the week. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 9-1.

4. Point Determined (Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano): If there’s too much speed up front, Baffert could get his fourth Derby win with this colt. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 13-1.

5. Bob and John (Baffert, Garrett Gomez): Wood Memorial winner also likes to run near the front. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 13-1.

6. Sweetnorthernsaint (Michael Trombetta, Kent Desormeaux): Starting to become popular choice after romp in Illinois Derby on April 8. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 10-1.

7. Sinister Minister (Baffert, Gomez): Gate-to-wire Blue Grass winner could have been claimed in January for $62,500. … Would have won California Derby but hit rail twice in the stretch. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 15-1 (mutuel field).

8. Steppenwolfer (Daniel Pietz, Robby Albarado): Second-best to Lawyer Ron in Arkansas in prep races. … Extra distance in Derby could help. … And he’s named for the rock group Steppenwolf. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 47-1.

9. A.P. Warrior (John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani): Nakatani confirmed for the mount. … Will train at Santa Anita and be shipped to Churchill Down on May 2. … Next start: Derby … Odds: 24-1.

10. Like Now (Kiaran McLaughlin, Fernando Jara): Gotham winner recovered quickly from fever that kept him out of Wood Memorial. … Next start: Lexington Stakes (Saturday) … Odds: 70-1.

[Glimmerglass]

On Sinister Minister

From the LA Times - “Message Is Delivered by Sinister Minister”

There were no near-mishaps, such as those the colt had in the California Derby on March 11 at Golden Gate Fields.

“People didn’t realize he hit the rail about three or four times….It was pretty wild,” Baffert said. “When he went over that rail, really, something bad could have happened.”

"I told Garrett, ‘Coming for home, make sure you hit him left-handed. I don’t want him to scrape you off against the rail.’ He was telling me the jockeys were giving him a hard time, saying, ‘Hey, we saw that race at Golden Gate.’

-snip-

“Bob’s done a nice job of bringing this horse along,” said Ward, Strong Contender’s trainer. “He won, and he did a nice job. He didn’t run into the fence today, so it made him run a little faster.”

anyone recall the recent horse, Yessirgeneralsir? Another horse that just ran his eyeballs out when he went out on the track.

[Glimmerglass]

First Samurai, wisely, taken out of Derby consideration

DRF APR 17, 2006

First Samurai off Derby trail
By JAY PRIVMAN

First Samurai, who finished fifth in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, is officially off the Kentucky Derby trail, his co-owner, Bruce Lunsford, told Daily Racing Form on Monday.

However, there are still so many 3-year-olds whose connections want to run in the 132nd Derby on May 6 that it appears graded stakes earnings will come into play. If more than 20 horses are entered in the Derby, the field is determined by earnings in graded stakes races.

That development makes this Saturday’s $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland a particularly crucial race for the likes of the undefeated Showing Up, who does not have any graded stakes money, and Sunriver, the third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, who currently is too low on the graded stakes list to make the Derby field.

The Lexington, along with the Withers Stakes on April 29 at Aqueduct, are the only two remaining graded stakes races for 3-year-olds preceding the Derby.

[SimplyTwisted]

I was at the track and saw the AR Derby Saturday, and it was a great race to watch. I really liked how John McKee rode Ron- he did a good job. Vow and Steppenwolfer gave it a great go and I was equally as impressed.
In the paper yesterday, they were talking about the fact that despite Ron’s nice win in the derby, it was the slowest one in at least a decade, I think.

I’ve grown up on and around Oaklawn, and the fact that we have had so many recent winners who spent their spring prep here has really inspired a new surge in pride for the track and for the entire community. With Smarty and Alex and now with Ron, even though they weren’t homebred here, they all became OUR horses. It’s pretty amazing to witness, and on a much smaller level makes me think about how people got behind Seabiscuit. That’s how it is for my community, in large part.

That has little relevance-- the post about east coast horses not being able to cut it with the contenders who are coming out of Cal and Arkansas just made me think about it-- but we take a lot of pride in the fact that Oaklawn is/has become a good prep track that is becoming a major springboard for big winners.

[Glimmerglass]

@SimplyTwisted

In the paper yesterday, they were talking about the fact that despite Ron’s nice win in the derby, it was the slowest one in at least a decade, I think.

Record crowd (70k+), good weather and great racing - sounds like a winning combo for those who attended like yourself

As for Ron’s effort, the Blood-Horse says this:

Once he got to the front, he [Lawyer Ron] shifted into his cruising mode, and that, for all intents and purposes, was the race. Yes, he came home slow and the final time was slow, but the Oaklawn surface once again was dead, as it’s been all meet, especially in distance races, and horses were crawling home all day.

All you had to do was look at the fluidity and extension of Lawyer Ron’s stride in the final eighth to realize this was not a tired horse. If you watch his last six victories you will see that exact same stride in every one of them. And he changes leads so smoothly you can barely see him do it.

This horse simply is a running machine that is starting to look more and more like a throwback to the days when horses were tough as nails and ran for the pure joy of it.

• Blood-Horse 4-17-06

From the same article, regarding Sinister Minister:

… a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes …

Not only did Sinister Minister continue to pour it on after setting blistering fractions, he never changed leads in the stretch and was continuously being smacked left-handed by Garrett Gomez to keep him from ducking into the rail again. Although it appears he’d be better off waiting the five weeks and pointing for the Preakness (gr. I), we all know that is not going to happen.

[JER]

@Glimmerglass

Can we all say speed duel to the first turn at the Derby?

I’m saying DRAG RACE if Sinister Minister goes out like that again.

I’ll definitely put off that last-minute trip to the fridge this year. The start should be a hoot.

[Glimmerglass]

Sweetnorthernsaint

I enjoyed this (horseless) photo: Washington Post photo: caption reads - Kentucky Derby hopeful Sweetnorthernsaint, a Maryland-based horse, has drawn a slew of media attention since winning the Illinois Derby.

It goes with this article: Washington Post 4-19-06 “Md. Trainer Dreams Of a ‘Sweet’ Derby”

excerpt:

Rudy Trombetta looked at the line of television cameras pointed at his son, Michael, and the gaggle of reporters surrounding him with microphones, tape recorders and notebooks, and didn’t sound too impressed.

“I remember when this happened every other Saturday,” said Trombetta, 72, shaking his cane at the busy crowd outside Barn 33 yesterday at Laurel Park. “You didn’t need a Derby contender back in the early '50s to draw this kind of crowd.”

… article continues …
The dark bay gelding is the first horse based at one of the Maryland racetracks to go to the Derby since Talk Is Money finished last in 2001.

see also, Baltimore Sun 4-19-06 “‘Saint’ keeping fine company”

Though Trombetta said the session was good training for his horse, he didn’t bring him into the sunshine to parade him around.

“I certainly don’t want to bring him out here,” Trombetta said, motioning to the asphalt area outside his barn. “My objective is to keep him healthy. You’ve seen how fast he can run. If something happened and he got away from me, I have a lot better chance of catching him along the shed row than I do out in the open, chasing him down the road.”

But nothing happened. Saint, which is what Sweetnorthern- saint’s team calls him, acted like one.

Acted like a star. Standing, posing. Looking back at the cameras looking at him.

“Nothing bothers him,” said Ferdinand, who described riding Saint as “like being in a limousine. He’s smooth.”

[Glimmerglass]

Video report from Laurel Park on “Saint” and trainer, Mike Trombetta: CBS 12 WJZ-TV Baltimore Tue APR 16- Maryland’s Derby horse