Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

Wonderful resource

The DRF has made available the Past Performances for the 2006 Derby Contenders - pdf

How else would we know that Lawyer Ron lost his last turf start (Aug 25, 2005) to among others, El Chile Dog :slight_smile:

Or that in Steppenwolfer’s 2nd start, when he broke his maiden, he beat Jazil

The horses included in the above link is pretty exhaustive by including all those inside the top 20, those on the bubble and those likely for Saturday’s last hope to getting in.

$325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes

Pletcher’s Sunriver, currently with $100k in graded earnings and in 22nd position today will not race again before the Derby. Essentially they are banking on others dropping out although I suspect with the Coolmore Lexington race this weekend it almost certainly will vault new horses into the mix and drop Sunriver out of a starting slot.

Speaking of this weekend’s race:

$325k G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes
Keeneland, April 22 1 1/16 miles (to be delayed aired on ESPN2)

PP - Horse, Jockey

  1. Gone Prospecting, John Velazquez
  2. Showing Up, Cornelio Velasquez <-- (ML favorite) Tagg’s horse; will go to Derby if wins
  3. More Than Regal, Shaun Bridgmohan
  4. Hemingway’s Key, Rafael Bejarano
  5. Bear Character, Rene Douglas
  6. Special Interest, Mark Guidry
  7. Chin High, Robby Albarado <-- will not go to Derby even if wins
  8. Like Now, Fernando Jara
  9. Fast Parade, Mick Ruis
  10. Greeley’s Legacy, Javier Castellano

(Remaining as the very last hope will be next weekend’s Withers Stakes at Belmont and the Derby Hopeful at Churchill, won last year by Don’t Get Mad who then last year almost nipped Afleet Alex for 3rd)

Typically the Frederick Tesio Stakes at Pimilico is a prep for those Maryland-based horses looking to show their stuff before going to the Preakness. This year is somewhat the same although no standouts like Magic Weisner from a few years ago 


To be aired on ESPN2 Saturday along with the Coolmore Lexington

$150,000 Federico Tesio Stakes
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, ML Odds

  1. Roamin Murphy (KY), Joseph Rocco, Jr., 116, 12/1
  2. Victory Lake (KY), Jozbin Santana, 116, 10/1
  3. Kona Blend (VA), Michael Luzzi, 116, 20/1
  4. Ah Day (MD), Ryan Fogelsonger, 116, 3/1 <- gelded son of Malibu Moon
  5. Scanlon’s Song (MD), Kyle Kaenel, 116, 7/2
  6. Sharps Island (KY), Enrique Jurado, 116, 20/1
  7. Kellers Church Rd. (PA), Victor Molina, 116, 20/1
  8. Our Peak (MD), A. R. Napravnik, 120, 5/1
  9. Vegas Play (MD), Mario Pino, 120, 8/1
  10. Putonyerdancinshuz (PA), Eriluis Vaz, 116, 6/1
  11. Colby Cat (FL), Luis Garcia, 116, 8/1

(from The BloodHorse 4-21-06)

psssst 
 ‘wanna Kentucky Derby trophy’?

Despite the catchy headline it is not related to the uber great grey horse :wink: The actual auction should end today - or already has today.

What they need is a spectacular bid
Friday, April 7, 2006

What would you pay for a foot-tall piece of horse racing history?

It will take at least $10,000 to buy the jockey’s cup awarded to Jean Cruguet when he rode 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew to victory in the Kentucky Derby.

The 9-inch silver trophy on a 3-inch marble base went up for sale Monday on the Internet site Mastroauctions.com. As of last night, the only bid was for $10,000. The auction still has two weeks to run.

Brian Marren, who is in charge of consignments for Mastro Auctions, would not identify the seller.

Cruguet, who lives in Versailles, Ky., said he is definitely not the seller. When he learned the trophy is on the market, he said, “I couldn’t believe it.”

Cruguet said he sold the trophy four or five years ago to Ken Grayson, a Lexington insurance agent and collector of racing memorabilia. Grayson declined to say yesterday whether he is the seller.

“I’d just rather not elaborate,” he said.

Cruguet said that when his wife, Denyse, faced medical expenses, he sold several items to Grayson.

“I gave him three or four boxes of stuff,” he said. “Altogether he gave me $7,500.”

Regardless of how it happened, “a Kentucky Derby trophy is a pretty rare item to come up for sale,” Marren said. “You very seldom see those trophies.”

The trophy’s ties to a Triple Crown winner greatly increase its value, said Leonard Lusky, president of Secretariat.com.

“I’d say it doubles it,” he said. “Maybe triples it.”

Lusky noted that a buyer paid $7,500 for a single nail from a shoe that Secretariat wore in his 31-length victory in the 1973 Belmont Stakes.

Showing Up will be showing up for the Derby

Or at least he won the Coolmore Lexington S. A slow time but a good run – Showing Up looked like he might get stuck on the inside before going wide and pulling ahead.

Showing Up does just that

Now that Showing Up has won the Lexington and earned enough $$ to be in the Derby
 my money is on the likelihood he will run. Only because I know some of his ‘connections’.

~Emily

An aside, I enjoyed ESPN2’s more comprehensive then normal show - plenty of good side bits and the like. The first time I went to Keeneland I couldn’t believe the drive through betting windows either :slight_smile:

Anyhow I liked the effort by Showing Up which showed controlled maturity which is an odd thing to say about a horse with only now a mere 3 lifetime starts and only 1 graded stakes race.

I’m glad that Tagg will be back in the spotlight despite him loathing it!

Is it me or are the owners of Showing Up and Barbaro a bit uh, uncharismatic? Nice folks, I’m sure but they come across as either wallflowers or dull as dishwater. They’d better get used to media interest and if you can barley make a comment worth even using as sound bite then something is wrong. The scenarios of having two undefeated horses going to the Kentucky Derby, one being a top favorite, should be like taking in a case of Redbull - you should be on high!

Love him or hate him, he still knows how to get horses to perform 
Patrick Valenzuela (P Val) has been named as the jockey by Todd Pletcher for Keyed Entry for the Kentucky Derby 


I just read that With a City was euthanized after suffering from “an unknown illness” A necropsy is planned. Such a shame and hope it was nothing contagious!

Wow, Thurs ill, Sunday euthanized

My condolences to all the connections to With A City as that is simply terrible :frowning: BloodHorse Apr 23rd “Illness Claims Lane’s End Winner With a City”


 fell ill on Thursday with an unknown ailment and quickly deteriorated. The colt was taken to the Hagyard Equine Medical Institute in Lexington, Ky., on Friday, but With a City’s condition continued to worsen and the decision to euthanize the colt was made on Sunday morning.

Reminds me of the very rapid death of G-1 winner Saratoga County and Egg Head where they developed colitis and then laminitis very quickly and had to be euthanized in a very short period of time. See BloodHorse Aug 2005 also TB Times Oct 2005 (Lawsuit) and BloodHorse JUL 2005

Not that surprising based upon his failure to win the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, but Like Now is no longer in contention for the Derby (despite being on the bubble with earnings) and will likely start next in the Preakness Stakes.

The only additional bit I saw on With A City in the last 24-hours 


TBTimes 4-23-06 “Kentucky Derby hopeful, Lane’s End winner With a City dies”

With a City, who suffered from seizures as his condition worsened.

"I’ve been on the racetrack my whole life, and the veterinarians had quite a bit of experience and they’ve never seen anything like it,’’ Maker said. "They think maybe he had some kind of swelling on the brain, or something in the brain that was causing him to do what he was doing. But any kind of illness that we deal with on a day-to-day basis—the [equine] herpes, the strangles, or West Nile [virus] or something—they’ve ruled all that out.’’

A lot of good updates and bits 


This BloodHorse article has a tremendous wealth of info on the various contenders as of this past weekend:

Blood Horse Apr 24, 2006 “All’s Quiet at the Downs, as the Invasion Nears”

example

Sinister Minister, was scheduled to van over from Keeneland around noon today, and it will be interesting to see how he’s recovered from his monster performance in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Baffert said the son of Old Trieste still was pretty knocked out several days after the race.

Lawyer Ron is an Afleet Alex type of horse in that he does everything you want him to do and seems to love every minute of it. He is loaded with personality and is extremely professional in everything he does. He stood for some 10 to 15 minutes on the track watching all the activity just prior to the renovation break, and didn’t get going until everyone had cleared out and he had pretty much the entire track to himself.

Even jogging before his gallop, he was competitive and kept trying to get the better of the other joggers. He then galloped two miles and was still full of life afterward.

[Steppenwolfer] has become good buddies with trainer Dan Peitz’ two kittens, who often come visiting his stall.


 article continues

An interesting article on the Jacksons behind Barbaro and Showing Up:

Philadelphia Inquirer 4-23-06 “Philly Derby drama - again”

Barbaro got his name from a painting of a foxhound that hangs in the Jacksons’ home. Showing Up’s name came from a Woody Allen quote that Gretchen Jackson always liked: “Eighty percent of success is showing up.”

The local horse community is close-knit, so it should come as no surprise that Gretchen Jackson has known Smarty Jones’ co-owner Pat Chapman for years, or that they were on the same fox hunts. Gretchen Jackson once bought a pleasure horse from Pat Chapman. The Jacksons also had some horses at Philadelphia Park with Smarty Jones trainer John Servis in the early 1990s.

Roy Jackson’s own family tree is impressive. His mother, Almira R. Scott, was a prominent local horsewoman who was a regular at Radnor Hunt fox hunts. Her father, William G. Rockefeller, once was treasurer of Standard Oil Co. Jackson’s stepfather, Hardie Scott, was a congressman representing Philadelphia from 1947 to 1953 and introduced the bill that turned Independence Hall into a national landmark and park. The Jackson family tree includes a governor of Delaware.

Showing Up 
 maybe not, again

Again this poor colt appears to be hit with another injury - perhaps minor, but maybe enough to keep him out of the KD. For having just three starts he has had the absessed hoof and now a punctured leg 


DRF 4-24-06 “Punctured leg for Showing Up”

Showing Up came out of his victory in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes with a puncture wound in his right foreleg, trainer Barclay Tagg said Monday morning. However, Tagg said if he can get the injury healed in time, Showing Up would run in the Kentucky Derby on May 6.

“Those things are dangerous; it doesn’t look like much, it’s a tiny little hole, but you can put the head of a squirt tube down there and put antibiotics in there and flush it out the best you can,” Tagg said Monday at Belmont Park where Showing Up had returned following a 13 1-2-hour van ride. “I’ve had them go both ways. I’ve had them heal up overnight, and I’ve had them get really bad and you damn near lose the horse. It’s certainly a concern.”

Hmmm, the fact that they vanned him 13œ hours from Lexington back to Belmont instead of leaving him nearer to Louisville with less than 2 weeks to the big day kinda says a lot.

I would tend to agree but Tagg did have a response to that as well:

DRF: ‘Showing Up returned to Belmont Park Monday morning following a 13 1/2-hour van ride from Lexington. Tagg said he would have shipped Showing Up back to New York regardless of the nature of the wound, and he wants to address the situation firsthand.’

What do the sports pundits think of the field? Here is a recent Top 10 of who is going to the big dance:

Triple Crown rankings (Apr 24th)

Horse, Trainer, Jockey, St W P S, Last race, Next race

1. Lawyer Ron, Bob Holthus, John McKee, 14 7 1 3, Arkansas Derby (4/15), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  1. Brother Derek, Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis, 8 6 0 1, Santa Anita Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  2. Barbaro, Michael Matz, Edgar Prado, 5 5 0 0, Florida Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  3. Bob and John, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, 9 4 1 3, Wood Memorial (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  4. Point Determined, Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano, 6 2 3 1, Santa Anita Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  5. Sweetnorthernsaint, Michael Trombetta, Kent Desormeaux, 6 3 0 1, Illinois Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  6. A.P. Warrior, John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani, 8 3 1 1, Santa Anita Derby (3rd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  7. Steppenwolfer, Daniel PIetz, Robbie Albarado, 8 3 2 2, Arkansas Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  8. Showing Up, Barclay Tagg, Cornelio Velasquez, 3 3 0 0, Lexington (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

  9. Sinister Minister, Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza, 5 2 1 0, Blue Grass Stakes (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

Triple Crown panel: John Cherwa, Orlando Sentinel; Dave Joseph, South Florida Sun-Sentinel; Bob Mieszerski, Los Angeles Times; Neil Milbert, Chicago Tribune; Paul Moran, Newsday

I have to say that I’ve been leaning more towards Lawyer Ron then anyone else. In addition to his performances, the distance he can handle, and his running style is the fact that he’s had 15 starts adds value vs. others with thin experience only off set by a big effort :wink:

those 15 starts will help!

Think how many post parades he has been in. I would think that might help on crazy day!

I should be corrected - Lawyer Ron will be making his 15th start in the Derby, but he has seen full fields in races before with 14 others in the Arkansas Derby so just few more horses in the charge won’t spook him :wink: The cover of The Blood Horse last week by the way had a wonderful picture of him on the cover.

Odd perhaps is the story from the B-H that cites trainer Dale Romans warning all of his fellow Derby entries - don’t try and get in a drag race with Sharp Humor as he’ll smoke 'em. Romans Issues Warning

Me thinks this only adds fuel to the fire of a drag race :slight_smile:

"I wouldn’t want to be the horse out there looking him in the eye. 
 “I’m planning on sending him,” he said bluntly. “I don’t know how good Sinister Minister came out of his race (in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes-I), but I’m not going to try to change our horse’s style of running and try to teach him to come from behind. It’s too late in the game. He’s never done it and we’re not going to change it going into the Derby.”

Interesting 


I’m looking forward to the total insanity of Sinister Minister. Of course, he’s at a slight disadvantage in that Churchill Downs has a rail on the inside of the track and if anyone saw the Cal Derby, the rail usually prevails when challenged to a game of ‘chicken’. Hopefully, Sharp Humor will stay to the outside and Sinister Minister won’t mistake him for the rail. That could be ugly.

Speaking of the Cal Derby, I liked the way Cause to Believe ran (and I haven’t seen the Ill Derby where he was 3rd) and he’s been quite successful at a variety of distances with his late speed. Could he be this year’s Monarchos?

Storylines galore!

This article by NBC Commentator, Bob Neumeier puts it in perspective ;>

NBC Sports/Bob Neumeier 4/25

Solis could end Kentucky Derby drought
0-for-14 jockey likely to ride favored Brother Derek; and other top stories

By Bob Neumeier
April 25, 2006

With less than two weeks to go before the most exciting two minutes in sports, here is a little of this and little of that as we get set for the Kentucky Derby on May 6:

Jockey Alex Solis aboard likely post-time favorite Brother Derek has the longest winless skein in Derby history (0-for-14).

Should Showing Up win the Derby, trainer Barclay Tagg would become only the third conditioner to win the race with his first two starters (Funny Cide 2003). The legendary Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons clicked with Gallant Fox (1930) and Omaha (1935) and Henry Forrest scored with his first two — Kauai King (1966) and Forward Pass (1968).

If Showing Up even starts in the Kentucky Derby, owners Roy and Gretchen Jackson (Lael Stables) would become the first owners in Derby history to start two undefeated colts (Barbero, the other).

Four winners of major prep races could have been purchased via the “claim box” earlier in their career — Arkansas Derby winner Lawyer Ron ($50k), Blue Grass Stakes winner Sinister Minister ( $62.5k), Illinois Derby champion Sweetnorthernsaint ($40k), and Tampa Bay Derby victor Deputy Glitters ($65k).

Of the seven highest rated two-year-olds of the 2005 Experimental Free Handicap, only two will make it postward for the Kentucky Derby — Brother Derek and private Vow.

Only three of the expected 20 trainers for this year’s running have ever won the race — Bob Baffert (three times), John Shirreffs, and Barclay Tagg.

Along those same lines, only three of the expected 20 jockeys for this race have ever won the Derby — Kent Desormeaux (twice), Victor Espinoza, and Patrick Valenzuela.

A Derby win by trainer Bob Baffert would give him four in his career — tying him for second all-time with Dick Thompson and D. Wayne Lukas. Ben Jones potted six winners with only 11 starters.

Nearly half of the trainers with horses for this year’s race are making their Derby debut — Dan Hendricks (Brother Derek), Michael Matz (Barbero), Michael Trombetta (Sweetnorthernsaint), Daniel Pietz (Steppenwolfer), Mark Casse (Seaside retreat), Dale Romans (Sharp Humor,) and Tom Albertrani (Deputy Glitters).

Only one Derby winner in the last 11 years (War Emblem) and only two in the last 17 years have been positioned either first or second at the half-mile call of the race.

In 82 runnings of the Blue Grass prep race, only Arts and Letters (15 lengths, 1969) and Alydar (13 lengths, 1978) had a wider margin of victory than this year’s winner, Sinister minister (12 Ÿ lengths).

The last two winners of the Arkansas Derby prep race — Smarty Jones (2004) and Afleet Alex (2005) went on to win two legs of the Triple Crown. Lawyer Ron is eligible to make it three.

$1000 mint juleps will be available to the first 50 customers to plunk down the loot — gold-plated cup, silver straw, mint from Morocoo, ice from the Arctic Circle, and sugar from the South Pacific comprise the concoction.

As for the inexperienced Strong Contender, he looks like a perfect candidate for the Preakness Stakes in five weeks time, and perhaps missing the Ky. Derby (insufficient earnings) will be a blessing in disguise — he’s just not ready. After being pinched back out of the gate in the Blue Grass, jockey Edgar Prado moved him steadily up the rail, passing one horse after another until he ran out of gas at the top of the lane — a promising effort.

All in all, the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby results set up a livelier pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby than originally anticipated. Likely favorite Brother Derek will have no early waltz as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. But neither will Sinister Minister, Lawyer Ron, Sharp Humor, Barbaro, or any other pace presser for that matter.

With three weeks to go, I have one word that comes to mind to describe the run-up to this year’s Derby — fascinating.

The Derby, as cited above, has almost always been a closer’s paradise, which should divert a lot of betting interest to Steppenwolfer

Glimmer

We are watching the Derby media coverage about the works and are not hearing any for Brother Derek
is he out? Several pundits have listed their favs and nothing on Brother Derek. I haven’t seen any info on this
did I miss something??