Nope - he’s a ‘ok’
ESPN did a Derby Preview and separated the horses by regions so just maybe you missed when they did the “West” grouping? Mike Battaglia, the official odds maker at Churchill, will in fact install Brother Derek as the Morning Line favorite for the Derby.
TB Times 5-1-06 “Brother Derek works four furlongs at Churchill Downs”
… he is looking quite good going into this last week!
Another on Sinister Minister
Obviously a lot of these comments to the media are just to play with the heads of other trainers and jockeys, but we do appear to have our new Spanish Chestnut of 2005!
Herald-Leader 5/2/06 “Sinister Minister forewarned; Trainer Romans says Sharp Humor up to task”
So, Sinister Minister either runs out front with his mouth gagged open for 11/4 miles and wins Derby 132 – grinning, open-mouthed – or the pressure proves too much. Then he folds, and Sharp Humor will be there to profit from that because Romans says his colt is going to last the 11/4 miles.
Back to the question, then: Who is the fastest?
Sinister Minister earned a 116 speed figure in the Blue Grass and Sharp Humor has only a 102 career-high figure.
But you can’t just go by the numbers. Just about any book that discusses speed figures and speed handicapping concedes that horse races cannot always be boiled down to mere numbers.
Nor can you automatically write off the fast horses as destined to “kill one another off” when the front end is loaded with speed. A stalker or even a closer is not a sure-fire winner in these cases. We defer to the book, Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies:
“Sometimes you see the speed of the speed emerge from a race full of front runners. One horse bolts to the front and takes all the heart out of the other front runners. For that speed horse to win, he has to bottom out the field, meaning he goes so fast early that he takes all the starch out of the rest of the field too.”
A study in contrasts, as the two horses have been all along …
Tuesday’s workouts on the sloppy Churchill surface:
The wet track didn’t alter LAWYER RON’s regular training schedule. The Arkansas Derby winner came out at his regular time just before 8:00 a.m. and after jogging around to the finish line and standing for several minutes galloped a vigorous two miles. The one new wrinkle a change in equipment with Lawyer Ron appearing to be wearing an overcheck bit to help give exercise rider Betsy Couch a little extra control over a horse who nearly ran off with her the previous morning. Despite the change, remained on the muscle again galloping with his mouth open and head cocked to the inside for nearly the entire two miles.
– vs —
The condition of the racetrack wasn’t much better following the renovation break. As a result trainer Michael Matz took the more conservative approach, electing to jog BARBARO two miles with a brief visit to the paddock along the way. Barbaro was bucking and playing and wanting to do more despite being kept in hand by both Matz aboard his stable pony along with exercise rider Peter Brette.
source: DRF 5-2-06
Laywer Ron to be [likely] sold …
As is the duty of estate executor - in this case Lawyer Ron Bamberger - he has a duty to maximize the interest of the heirs. Selling the namesake horse pre-Derby sadly makes sense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jess Jackson was the interested buyer 
DRF 5/2/06 “Lawyer Ron may be sold before Derby”
Ron Bamberger, executor of the estate for the breeder and owner James T. Hines Jr., said Tuesday that serious negotiations were ongoing for the sale of Lawyer Ron, one of the favorites for the 132nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
The deal had not been finalized as of late Tuesday afternoon, said Bamberger, who declined to identify the potential buyer.
Other sources, including one prominent member of the bloodstock industry, said that the negotiations were close to being concluded. These sources, who spoke on a condition of anonymity, said that the new owner would buy a majority interest before the Derby but that Lawyer Ron would race on Saturday in the Hines family’s blue-and-white silks. For races thereafter, the colt would carry the silks of his new owner.
Derby entries close about 11 a.m. on Wednesday, according to Doug Bredar, the Churchill Downs racing secretary. Post positions will be drawn Wednesday in downtown Louisville.
Lawyer Ron is named after Bamberger, a longtime attorney for Hines. Hines, an Owensboro, Ky., businessman, drowned in a swimming pool accident at his farm in Utica, Ky., on Feb. 21. He was 69. Hines owned a tool-and-die company, a stamping company, and electronics and charter jet businesses.
There has been speculation about the possibility of a sale of Lawyer Ron as the Hines estate goes through probate, a development first reported by The Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer. Members and friends of the Hines family said the farm and racing stable is being downsized and may eventually be liquidated.
Lawyer Ron, a Langfuhr colt trained by Bob Holthus, enters the Derby off six straight wins, most recently a 2 3/4-length victory in the April 15 Arkansas Derby. He has won 7 of 14 races for career earnings of $1,220,008. All seven wins have come on dirt; he is 0 for 7 on turf and the artificial surface Polytrack.
John McKee, the colt’s regular rider, will be aboard again Saturday.
It is unusual for a horse to change hands so close to the Derby, although four years ago The Thoroughbred Corp. purchased the eventual Derby winner, War Emblem, from Russell Reineman for a reported $1 million about two weeks before the race.
Last week, a minority interest in Sharp Humor, another Kentucky Derby prospect, was sold to WinStar Farm. Primary ownership of Sharp Humor, the Florida Derby runner-up, remains with Purdedel Stable.
Talk about your slams!
From the Andy Beyer on-line chat (DRF) on Tuesday:
Q: Andy,Can Smith win it again with Flashy Bull your thoughts?
Andy Beyer: You’ve got to be kidding. I’m not sure Smith could win if he were on the reincarnation of Secretariat. He was riding so poorly at Gulfstream this winter that the strongest handicapping angle at the meeting was “Mike Smith off.”
OUCH! 
Anyhow his choices for this year’s Derby …
I’m going to put my emphasis on A. P. Warrior, Point Determined and Barbaro. I’ll probably play the race with the premise that one of those three has to win. I’ll throw out all the speed horses. I’ll throw out Brother Derek. If I sue Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way.
To get folks in the spirit
Two privately made promotion videos for the Derby. I don’t know the person who put these together but I think they did a pretty good job!
Video: “Kentucky Derby 132 - History - Teaser 1”
Teaser #2 was pulled although I thought it the better of the two.
The field, the positions, the odds
It all comes down to this:
Post Horse / Jockey / Trainer / Morning Line Odds
My comments, for what it’s worth, those horses who perhaps can be weeded out from bets: (Of course I could be wrong
“toss out” Showing Up as it would amazing but the odds are simply against a colt who would be making start #4 to win this; “toss out” Seaside Retreat as I’ve never seen an exceptional performance yet and he was a few country miles behind in his last race. Bluegrass Cat and Private Vow have in 2006 never risen to anything near expectations. Deputy Gliters is a horse that almost seems invisible in this who field - barely a mention of him or really even Storm Treasure for that matter. Flashy Bull I can recall being an also ran at best in some preps.
Who do I like now, aside from the “top three” with strong nods to Lawyer Ron and Barbaro? To cover bets I’d also look at
A.P. Warrior, Point Determined, Bob and John to win
Steppenwolfer and Jazil for something in the money.
Beyer figs
Sometimes the horse with the best Beyer figure for speed does triumph in the Derby - see at bottom - but not always; below is 2006’s field
Highest Beyers for the Derby field (DNW = did not win a prep)
Derby PP / Horse / Beyer / Race @ Distance
From Andy Beyer:
Best Beyers and the Derby
Sinister Minister’s 116 in the Blue Grass Stakes is the best Beyer Speed Figure this year in a Kentucky Derby prep race. Here are the horses with the best Beyers in preps since 1992 and their Derby finishes (with $2 win mutuels):
YEAR HORSE BEYER DERBY FINISH
2005 Bellamy Road 120 5th
2004 Read the Footnoes 113 7th
2003 Empire Maker 111 2nd
2002 War Emblem 112 1st ($43)
2001 Millennium Wind 114 11th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 111 1st ($6.60)
1999 Charistmatic 108 1st ($64.60)
(tied) Excellent Meeting 108 5th
(tied) General Challenge 108 11th
1998 Indian Charlie 112 3rd
1997 Silver Charm 110 1st ($10)
(tied) Free House 110 3rd
1996 Unbridled’s Song 114 5th
1995 Serena’s Song 114 16th
1994 Holy Bull 115 12th
1993 Diazo 109 5th
1992 Lil E. Tee 107 1st ($35.60)
(tied) Pine Bluff 107 5th
(tied) Devil His Due 107 12th
Thanks for all your posts, Glimmerglass!
Brother Derek the front-running colt was installed as the 3-1 favorite Wednesday despite drawing the No. 18 post position. Only one horse has ever won the Derby from that spot – Gato Del Sol in 1982.
Yikes!
Also, a story on an 88 yr old jockey’s first return since his win at just 18 in 1936 on Bold Venture:
Associated Press 5-4-06 “Jockey’s awaited return; Oldest living winner is back, 70 years later”
Hanford and two other jockeys in the 1936 Derby received 15-day suspensions. That prevented him from riding Bold Venture for trainer Max Hirsch two weeks later in the Preakness. He was replaced by George Woolf of Seabiscuit fame, who won. Bold Venture then lost in the Belmont Stakes.
“The thing that got me, and still does to this day, is I never had a hearing of any kind,” he said. “I never had a chance to defend myself and I’ve always felt that’s not right.”
For a man of 88 he looks extremely fit! Image: Ira “Babe” Hanford, Wed May 3rd
An aside, as there has been little mention of the Kentucky Oaks, the one-time favorite for this year’s running - Foklore - has been retired due to a stress fracture 
Pity the Oaks gets overlooked in the run up to the big one. A change of date might not be a bad idea, maybe even putting it on the undercard of the Derby. Actually a Distaff Triple Crown that mirrored the regular TC, with the races held the same days as the KD, Preak, BS might be a nice feature.
The existing Fillies TC has been all but forgotten at this point.
Well, I spoke to my vet, he was just back from Churchill on some business or other. He had a tip for me.
His source? The guy who handles that blanket of roses every year. Quite scientific.
He said A.P. Warrior. The more I research, the better he looks. can’t help noticing the odds on that one getting shorter here as we get closer.
My question is, given BBs talent for prepping them exactly right for this race to the point of winning with some less then stellar colts, which one to use??? Can’t leave him out of any wagering.
Weather will be in the 60s, been raining so the track will not be dead fast but it won’t be deep either, unless they get a gully washer.
Somebody help me out here.
This year’s KD is a tough one. You can make a great argument for any of 6-7 horses, all very impressive. When it gets like that I always stay away from the betting window. Should be a cracker of a race though.
As to which of the BB horses, I’d have to go with Sinister Minister, he seems to be peaking at just the right time and his Bluegrass was explosive.
They could move it, but despite the reduced buzz factor last year they had record setting attendance: 111,243; sales might have been slightly influenced by Sweet Catomine as she was debated as a possible Oaks runner instead of Derby after the Santa Anita but of course all that ended quickly.
I was a bit hard pressed to recall the winner for last year (it was Summerly with Jerry Bailey, up) but in 2004 they did have two very noted contenders: Madacap Escapade and Ashado.
Police!
No not the band Jerry Moss signed or the front man’s son’s name whom he used for last year’s winner Rather like last year each Derby horse will get their own police officer:
Enhanced security for Kentucky Derby horses
By Associated Press
Thursday, May 4, 2006 - Updated: 10:07 AM EST
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Churchill Downs will again institute enhanced, round-the-clock security to protect every horse running in the Kentucky Derby.
Starting Thursday and continuing through post time Saturday, each stall will be assigned an individual security officer. Jefferson County Sherrif’s deputies will stand guard from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Other security personnel will be assigned for the remaining hours.
On race day, a deputy will accompany each horse wherever it goes in a continuation of a policy instituted last year.
“The Derby is the biggest event in American racing and it is essential that participating owners, trainers and Derby fans who are watching and wagering on the race have the highest level of confidence in the integrity of our great race and the performance of these wonderful horses,” said Churchill Downs president Steve Sexton.
The track very easily could be Hawthorne-esq, meaning just like the surface that Sweetnorthernsaint put in a fine effort on. Although the competition found in the Illinois Derby was not overly tough - it also lacked speed and closers - so you can’t necessarily apply his effort in that G2 race to what he’ll do in the Derby.
I concur that AP Warrior looks good and he’ll be a pick for me. If he’s still going off at 15-1 (doubt it) I’ll be delighted
Winning wire to wire with decent but not crazy fast speed worked fine for the big filly, Winning Colors (Gary Steven’s up) in 1988. As much as I’d love to see a Sinister Minister just haul like a demon cast from hell I just think the pace will be too much.
As cited by Andy Beyer: When the first quarter of the Derby is run faster than 22.60 seconds, every horse near the lead will collapse and horses coming from out of the clouds will dominate the race at the end. I have a hunch we’ll be seeing a pace faster than 22.60. if the track is fast Saturday.
I loved SMs Bluegrass as well, but remember Bellamy Road:no:
He’ll have to get going quick out of that #4 slot which is no problem…but how far can he go?
And did that 116 Beyer 2 weeks ago take a toll?
Not to make things any less clear but Bellamy Road, it was suggested, actually raced in the Derby with an injury unknown to Nick Zito.
Zito theorized that the injury [“popped splint”] might have been developing before the Derby, and was aggravated during the race.
(ESPN 5/12/06)
As far as the general public knows Sinister Minister is at the peak of health and without any known soreness, etc. However we could be looking at a bit of a bounce. See comment: “Baffert said Sinister Minister was pretty tired for a few days after his Blue Grass win.”
We’d all expect a horse to be tired after that effort but I don’t recall reports of Bellamy Road being anything but frisky after his blow out.
Just food for thought
Majority stake in Lawyer Ron sold: $6M (total value)
DRF 5/4/06 “Stonewall buys majority interest in Lawyer Ron”
A majority interest in Lawyer Ron, one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, has been sold to Stonewall Stallions of central Kentucky, but the colt will race in the name and silks of his breeder and owner, the estate of James T. Hines Jr., in the 132nd Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
A formal announcement was expected on Thursday afternoon, according to principals for both sides who declined to disclose full terms of the deal on Thursday morning. Industry experts with some knowledge of the sale estimated Lawyer Ron’s value at roughly $6 million.
After his racing career, Lawyer Ron will stand at stud at Stonewall, the former E.K. Gaylord property known as Gaillardia Farm near Midway, Ky. Stonewall stands six other stallions: Doneraile Court, Leroidesanimaux, Medaglia d’Oro, Value Plus, Marquetry, and Unforgettable Max.
Bailey likes two horses for Derby
Retired Hall of Fame jockey and current racing analyst Jerry Bailey, a two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, was on the Churchill Downs backside Wednesday morning, sharing his thoughts on Saturday’s 132nd Run for the Roses.
Bailey has some doubts about highly regarded Derby entrants Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint. Bailey said his pick is between Point Determined and Lawyer Ron. - DRF 5-4-06
The Derby myth
It seems these days more then ever the Kentucky Derby is the ‘must have’ race on the resume before cashing in on the really fat money - found in the breeding. However that contradicts reality with Derby winners and shed money:
Lex Herald-Leader May 5th “Derby winner not always super stud”
excerpt
There are no guarantees in the breeding shed," Taylor said. “You can do everything right on the racetrack, but if mother nature is not on your side, you’re just spinning your wheels.”
Leading sires
Finish in Sire, stud fee Kentucky Derby
Storm Cat, $500,000 Did not run
A.P Indy, $300,000 Did not run
Kingmambo, $300,000 Did not run
Giant’s Causeway, $300,000 Did not run
Unbridled’s Song, $150,000 5th, 1996
Distorted Humor, $150,000 Did not run
Dynaformer, $125,000 Did not run
Seeking the Gold, $125,000 7th, 1988
Fusaichi Pegasus, $125,000 1st, 2000
Awesome Again, $125,000 Did not run
Derby winners at stud
2005: Giacomo (still running, will retire to Adena Springs)
2004: Smarty Jones (stands at Three Chimneys Farm)
2003: Funny Cide (gelding, still running)
2002: War Emblem (stands at Shadai Stallion Station in Japan)
2001: Monarchos (stands at Claiborne Farm)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (stands at Ashford Stud)
1999: Charismatic (stands at Shizunai Stallion Station in Japan)
1998: Real Quiet (stands at Regal Heir Farms, Pa.)
1997: Silver Charm (stands at Japan Racing Association)
1996: Grindstone (stands at Overbrook Farm)
1995: Thunder Gulch (stands at Ashford Stud)
1994: Go for Gin (stands at Bonita Farm, Maryland)
1993: Sea Hero (stands in Turkey)
1992: Lil E Tee (stands at Old Frankfort Stud)
1991: Strike the Gold (stands in Turkey)
1990: Unbridled (stood at Claiborne, died at 14 in 2001)
1989: Sunday Silence (died at 16 in 2002, leading sire of all time in Japan)
1988: Winning Colors (filly, lives at Gainesway Farm)
1987: Alysheba (stands in Saudi Arabia)
1986: Ferdinand (died in 2002 in Japan)
1985: Spend a Buck (died in 2002 at 20 in Brazil)
1984: Swale (died after Belmont)
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