I think Tami Smith could medal and potentially Liz. With the Olympics not being a 5 star, those two have been world class competitive at the levels below that.
Edit to clarify- Of US born and produced riders. Although one could potentially argue that Liz is not 100% US produced.
Agreed. Doug too.
Agree Mai Baum is all class
Just as a note in 2008 in Hong Kong the Australians also finished all 5 of their riders. Without xc jumping faults.
New aspects of the Olympic format this year are summarized below. This is my understanding. Please correct if my interpretation is not accurate.
If a rider does something that would normally result in elimination in the dressage and show jumping phases, instead of the big E, 100 penalty points will be assessed. For the cross country phase, the penalty is 200 points.
A team can make one substitution if one of the three starters is unable to continue for medical or veterinary reasons. There are timeframes specified. If I am interpreting correctly, the substition basically has to happen between phases, and if a team brings in a substitute, 20 penalty points are assessed. A team can not bring in a substitute the combination they want to replace has been eliminated for Dangerous Riding, Abuse of Horse or where the combination has been disqualified.If a horse gets spun at the second horse inspection, the alternate can be substituted if the team has not previously substituted.
Here is the rules doc for your own reading pleasure:
Why not include Boyd and Testserleg in that group if they can put together three clean phases? They won the 4*L in Tryon last fall which was considered a âselection trialâ. In the same event, Phillip and Z were second, Doug and Quinn were 4th and Liz and Deniro were 5th.
I didnât include Boyd because I believe the question was if we had any non foreign born and produced, US riders who could medal. Otherwise, I agree, Boyd is also capable and one could argue that while Liz is US born, she is not US produced. Though she did get her base here and we should be encouraging our riders to go overseas when possible.
Oh yeah, I guess that was the question LOL!
Impressive
To win. Itâs a competition. When a football team is rebuilding, I donât expect them to make it to the Superbowl; but I watch every game and expect them to play to win.
I donât understand this mentality in a competition. As others have noted, the Olympics is no longer the pinnacle of competition in our sport - it is run as a 4*. Isnât that more of a reason to expect to medal and win.
Edited for spelling.
You do you. Be as frustrated and critical as you like, even though it will make no difference.
There is more than one point of view. Opting to stress and angst for no purpose, changing nothing, is not a requirement. Everyone can choose their own lane.
Yeah, I think Liz followed a path that would be a good one for a lot of young Americans, so Iâm hesitant to say she âdoesnât countâ (and you could make an argument sheâs doing as well as she does because of her time in the UK).
So ⊠to the point ⊠do we go to the Olympics to win?
Or do we go to do something good in the world - as do so many countries in various sports that they do not expect to win? To be part of something larger, to demonstrate our goodwill toward a cooperative effort like the Olympics.
The Olympics has never been about the best against the best. It is about bringing the world together around sports we have in common. Itâs an emotional exercise more than an absolute sporting event (although the world tends to forget that in the fever of competition).
The U.S. eventing team winning is an expectation that is about as rational as expecting that we are going to win Kentucky or Badminton or Burghley.
Because we arenât doing what it takes to win. We arenât doing what the countries who do win, actually do.
Maybe the biggest thing we donât do is provide our elite Olympic-caliber riders enough income to make it possible for them to focus on the Olympics, rather than month-to-month survival. Thatâs structural in our Olympic eventing program.
We also donât have enough 5* events to season our rider/horse pipeline at the level. Within a relatively reachable transportation distance and yearly time schedule. Transportation that isnât the strain on horses (and riders) that is long-distance international air travel.
Even if the Olympics is 4* (and thatâs debatable after the difficulty of Rio), our best position is to send competitors who are well within their capabilities and experience, and not asking for a performance that is a stretch. Somehow we always seem to be on âstretchâ, to whatever degree.
I realize that the American sporting public is raised on Disney-ish expectations that the hero somehow overcomes their underdog position and triumphs in the end. We believe everyone gets to be The Black Stallion and National Velvet and â50 to 1â because weâve absorbed so many of those stories (those sports stories are an industry in this country). However, thatâs all just fairy tales, and is not how winners consistently win.
So, if we donât think we can change these structural roadblocks to elite U.S. eventers, then we are where we are. And that is not at the very highest elite level, no matter how much respect we have for our top U.S. competitors.
So how do we make the most of our Olympic experience in the context of reality? By twisting ourselves into knots because we donât achieve the un-achievable?
Are we even being fair to our team in our expectations of glory?
Or by re-setting expectations and goals to give us a better than 50% shot at a satisfying outcome? An outcome that our team can understand and feel is reachable.
Just asking. 
This always comes up and it is never going to happen in this country. Eventing is a minor sport of a minor sport (equestrian) which falls way below many other minor sports. You have more chance of getting government funding for the table tennis team.
Then letâs be realistic and fair to the under-funded team we have. And moderate our expectations.
It is not underfunded, this is a professional sport and the sport at the professional levels doesnât generate enough revenues to support sending people to things like WEG and the Olympics. I have horses and do some lower level eventing but I wouldnât contribute money to fund international teams.
Slight detour⊠who should Canada send?
Since we can only send two individuals, I think we should send those who have a chance for a top 10 finish if they have their best possible result.
I think Colleen and Quorry Blue are our most consistent and reliable team, and could be competitive. I imagine she will be chosen.
Karl would have been a possibility had he not had that terrifying fall in Kentucky. I am a smurf, but cannot imagine sending a horse to the Olympics a couple months after such a bad fall.
Waylon has had some good results but withdrew from KY. That may mean nothing or something.
While I am incredibly impressed with Jess Phoenix for getting 3 horses around the XC without jumping penalties in the LRY3DE 4****, when many top riders were not able to complete XC, she would not be my choice for one of the two spots. Neither Wabbit nor Bogue Sound would be competitive even on their best day. Pavarotti is amazing but given his age and years near the top of the sport, I wonder how challenging it is to keep him sound at this level. Still, if we decide to send JP, I think Pavarotti on his best day, would be Canadaâs best chance for a top 10 result.
there are probably some other riders that should be considered that I have missed.
I know other countries have different models of funding their top lervel international athletes in various Olympic sports, and I have no intimate knowledge of how much income some of the biggest of the big names in eventing generate from various sources. However, I doubt that the primary income/financial support for any of the likely individual medalists at the Tokyo Olympics is the money they receive from their governments/national federations.
I agree Colleen is a good choice. Karl did have a bad fall trying to move up to 5* but that horse has had good results at level below so I wouldnât write them off based on Kentucky result. Mike Winter (who is based in UK) has also had some good results over the last little while.
I agree on Jessicaâs horses. I believe Pavarotti is 19 this year? I donât see him being a super realistic choice but I would LOVE to know what goes into keeping that horse sound at his age.
Iâm curious to see how Hawley Bennett does at Jersey Fresh after withdrawing at Kentucky. Iâm sure sheâs gunning for a spot too.
Mike Winter and El Mundo, based in England would also be a interesting option for Canada.
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