Reporting back after querying said breeders and the consensus is: Theyāre gone. They were sold 3 years ago as foals or in utero, usually privately with no marketing, or are in partnership with a pro. A couple that hung around till age 3 sold around the 50k mark (few years ago), which is the number I had in my head in my head for this type. Seller of one of those has a friend who recently bought a very similar black-type 3 yo in Europe, un-started, for 75k before import.
Europe isnāt the deal it used to be, but you can certainly see a lot more horses for a lot less effort, which is a value in and of itself.
So you are correct in that it is hard to find high quality 3 year olds in North America (I searched 2021 jumper prospect and could only make it through the first page at the link aboveā¦). The supply (because Breeding in America) is extremely limited andā the truth of the matter is, amateur riders with proper facilities & 35K+ to spend on an unbroke horse are few & far between. Successful breeders have learned there is no buyer at the end of the 3 year old rainbow. They need to sell well before they sink $20k+ and tons of risk into getting baby horse raised & backed.
Itās a literal hole in the American marketā buy very young or buy the 4/5 year old thatās got expensive starter horse show miles built into the price.
They also note that the yards in Europe are (generally) not breeders, but young horse mills where they buy tons of babies to bring along and sell off for various amounts, occasionally getting lucky. So the non-VDL type breeders are also selling early, but theyāre selling into buyer-friendly programs where Americans show up by the van-load to shop.
But the leap that the author took, to equate that to mean we are not breeding top talent, is a complete conflation. We are breeding top quality talent, we just have terrible promotional skills.