Me and my crazy ideas: how much would you pay for this horse?

[Libby2563]

@StormyDay

In the past few weeks I’ve seen QH’s and paints being sold to the 2-2’6” crowd for 10-15k on Facebook. Even if I only sold them for 5-6 grand, I’d still make a profit.

I don’t think it’s the craziest plan ever if you’re confident in your training abilities and have the time to put into the horses. It doesn’t seem like it would be hard to sell the horse you’re describing for $5-6k on the east coast, hopefully more.

I don’t think $10-15k is out of the realm of possibility but I wouldn’t count on it for three reasons. First, the market has been crazy this year so I wouldn’t rely on today’s prices. Second, like someone else said, FB just shows the asking price so who knows what they actually sell for. Third, in the $10k plus price range buyers are more likely to be doing x-rays and you may get a few that don’t vet well (especially if you’re buying cheap horses long-distance).

I assume you’ve actually done the math factoring in purchase and shipping price, monthly cost (feed, farrier, etc), how long you’d keep them, etc? Do you have tack and blankets (if needed) that would fit these guys?

[eightpondfarm]

@McGurk

Even harder to find a mustang with the size and stride to be successful in hunterland than it would be to find a QH.

I’m not sure that the 14.2 mustang hony would work in the pony ring either.

I have 8 recently adopted/purchased mustangs. Four are well over 15h and five are dressage prospects, (one of them a dressage pony for me at 14.0) I didn’t have much trouble finding them at the BLM online auction. I have a 3yr old mare who seems to be developing really well too. She was 14.2 when i got her in July and has put on at least two inches since then. They’re getting gentled now, and so far only one is just about ready to saddle train.

Structurally, i think they are better adapted for jumping than a QH. Their cannon bones are thicker and they don’t have to drag an oversized rear end over a fence.

[StormyDay]

@Libby2563

@StormyDay

In the past few weeks I’ve seen QH’s and paints being sold to the 2-2’6” crowd for 10-15k on Facebook. Even if I only sold them for 5-6 grand, I’d still make a profit.

I don’t think it’s the craziest plan ever if you’re confident in your training abilities and have the time to put into the horses. It doesn’t seem like it would be hard to sell the horse you’re describing for $5-6k on the east coast, hopefully more.

I don’t think $10-15k is out of the realm of possibility but I wouldn’t count on it for three reasons. First, the market has been crazy this year so I wouldn’t rely on today’s prices. Second, like someone else said, FB just shows the asking price so who knows what they actually sell for. Third, in the $10k plus price range buyers are more likely to be doing x-rays and you may get a few that don’t vet well (especially if you’re buying cheap horses long-distance).

I assume you’ve actually done the math factoring in purchase and shipping price, monthly cost (feed, farrier, etc), how long you’d keep them, etc? Do you have tack and blankets (if needed) that would fit these guys?

Yeah, I probably wouldn’t expect each one to fetch 10k. But even at 6 grand I’d probably be looking at a profit of around 2500-3k. Not huge, but at least it’s a bit of a profit.

Yeah, I’m lucky in that I can keep them for very, very cheap because of my location and the fact that I am a tack hoarder

[StormyDay]

@eightpondfarm

@McGurk

Even harder to find a mustang with the size and stride to be successful in hunterland than it would be to find a QH.

I’m not sure that the 14.2 mustang hony would work in the pony ring either.

Structurally, i think they are better adapted for jumping than a QH. Their cannon bones are thicker and they don’t have to drag an oversized rear end over a fence.

Hmm, I’d argue that. Quite a few of horses of years past competing in the bigger jumper classes were QH’s. And I don’t think any QH has an oversized rear end. The breed standard is a well put together horse.

On top of this, mustangs are really diverse. Some, like mine, have a lot of Spanish blood and look like little Andalusians. Others have a lot of draft. Others have a ton of QH blood. Some are much taller, others barely reach 14 hands.

[McGurk]

@eightpondfarm,

I am not dissing mustangs or their abilities; I’ve known some terrific ones. However, I’ve been speaking to value primarily for hunter showing. (Unless the OP has a robust local jumper circuit in her area.)

Off breed and off type horses are a harder sell as local hunters. Height/size is important mostly as it relates to stride; somewhat important as it relates to look.

If you have a 15 hand QH or mustang that doesn’t have a 12 foot stride, or has to gallop to make the distances between fences set for a 12 foot stride, you will likely not break the 10K price point, no matter how well broke the horse or how cute a jumper.

Most hunters, even local hunters, are 16 H and up. (There used to be a division for Junior Hunters under 15.3, most shows don’t offer it any longer because the classes don’t fill.) And if you read ads for hunters, most say some version of “Easily makes the distances! Can walk the lines!”

So for the OPs business plan, buying horses for 3 - 5K, shipping them East, putting 6 months to a year into them and selling them for 6 - 10K is not really a sustainable business model. Unless you carefully select the horses for size, stride and type that will suit the hunter ring, that’s what’s the math will be.

ETA: Breaking the 10K price point will be difficult, if not impossible, unless the horse moves like a hunter and can get the step.

[Jealoushe]

@eightpondfarm

Structurally, i think they are better adapted for jumping than a QH. Their cannon bones are thicker and they don’t have to drag an oversized rear end over a fence

That rear end gives them excellent push power.

[McGurk]

Trying to nudge this thread back on track:

The OP has the idea of going out West and buying up some likely ranch QHs, bringing them East, getting them going in more of an English style, showing them, and selling them as local hunters. Because she sees local hunters going 2’ - 2’6’ for sale in the 10 - 15K range advertised locally. She’s asking if this could be profitable and the consensus has been a resounding “maybe.”

The important details here are: ranch QHs are already well broken and amateur friendly. They just need to be taught English riding conventions and started over fences/get changes which could take as little as 6 months. Timing is key in a successful flip - the longer you have the horse, with the board/farrier/vet meter running, the harder to add value fast enough to make a profit. The suitable for hunters thing is key to this whole plan, because it’s local hunters that are going for 10 - 15K, not pleasure horses, trail horses or even lower level eventers. <<<You can’t get enough for those type of horses to justify the flip.

My advice was to select the ranch QHs carefully for size and step, or to focus on honies. Several other posters with hunter experience and flipping experience said similar things, several expressed doubt that it could be done profitably but that it depends on the local market.

I am not sure how we got from that topic to debating the merits of mustangs or critiquing how QHs jump.

[Against_All_Odds2]

OP I bought this type of horse this year.

3yo, ranch type bred QH 15.1 at vetting but he was a 3yo in a 2 yo body and will likely end up around 15.3. Has crazy reach and will make a darn competitive 3’ hunter if I can pilot it. I paid $8k and he’d only had 60 days on him. I’d clone him. Shoot your shot!

Edited: I should add I did vet him and xrayed all 4 feet to the cannon. He passed

[Horsegirl_s_Mom]

I’m wondering about the plan to sell them when they’ve “started lead changes” and “started over 2-2’3” fences."

When we were shopping for my teenager, I readily would have paid $15-20k for a quarter horse or paint to show in local “B” shows–but I would have wanted established lead changes and a pretty steady, experienced jumper who could make the strides without a huge amount of effort.

It sounds like you would plan to sell them quite a bit greener than that-- i.e., when they still need a fairly experienced rider to get around a course properly. So who is the target market for that? Would you be selling them on to other trainers to finish them? Or maybe to pony club kids? Around here (Northern California) I know a few kids who are bringing along green-ish hunter/jumpers, but most kids seem to be looking for horses who already know the job quite well.

[Backstage]

@Horsegirl_s_Mom

When we were shopping for my teenager, I readily would have paid $15-20k for a quarter horse or paint to show in local “B” shows–but I would have wanted established lead changes and a pretty steady, experienced jumper who could make the strides without a huge amount of effort.

It sounds like you would plan to sell them quite a bit greener than that-- i.e., when they still need a fairly experienced rider to get around a course properly. So who is the target market for that? Would you be selling them on to other trainers to finish them? Or maybe to pony club kids? Around here (Northern California) I know a few kids who are bringing along green-ish hunter/jumpers, but most kids seem to be looking for horses who already know the job quite well.

This would be my concern. OP really needs to be confident that there is a market in her area for what she is proposing. I’m not convinced that there would be a huge market for this in my area - people do want safe and sane horses lower level show horses, but those same people typically are going to want to know that the horse has been to some shows/gotten some miles in the ring, and is easy to the fence and has a fairly easy change. There will certainly be some horses that can be produced to that level in a few months…but others will take longer. And if the product you are selling is ultimately on the greener end of the spectrum, you can end up in ‘no man’s land’ as the riders with the interest/experience to develop the horse further are often looking for something a bit fancier. And keeping the horse to develop it further, and show it can really eat in to any potential profit margin.

[StormyDay]

So some clarifications: I can get these ranch horses for about 1-2k each. Crazy cheap for the east coast, but where I’m getting them from that’s an average price point on a horse who is broke well. If the horse is really good at an actual sport, then that’s a whole different story. But there isn’t a market for sensible horses not good at rodeo sports. There’s just too many.

I have a very robust unrated and local rated horse show circuit near me. I’d expect most of my buyers would be people who want a sensible horse who they can take to a horse show without needing prep, and could maybe take a few ribbons. We also have a large jumper community here too, so while I’d probably focus more on selling for low level hunters, I have the jumper market here too.

I’d keep them for long enough that an ammy could ride them around a 2ft course. I’d expect these horses to still be in a program with a trainer, as that is what most people around here do. I’ve found in the past that’s about 3 months. With confirmed lead changes, we are looking at a longer time frame there though. I’ve retrained western -> English in the past several times. Of course, it totally depends on the training of the horse before.

[anon40672407]

Do you ride for a living? I’m wondering how many horses you could effectively work in a day, in order to put a few months of ‘basics’ on them. Sometimes a young horse needs lessons that don’t fit neatly in 30 minutes.

[OverandOnward]

Start small, just a few, maybe only a couple. If those work out per your plan, that’s at least an indication that you are going in the right direction.

Discards: Have a ‘failsafe’ plan for what you will do with any horse that isn’t working out. Hopefully not auction. The ‘failsafe’ is your safety from failure, and their safety in case they are failures against your goals. Have defined criteria for when it is time to put a horse onto the track for a different future, to avoid over-investing in no-hopers. You will have them because no one is perfect at picking winners. There will always be discards in any production project. Businesses that don’t account for discards are those that struggle and often fail, because cost goes into the discards and no revenue is produced. Managing the discards is an essential part of business.

Have a financial cushion, a fallback in case of worst case scenarios. Best, of course, is a separate income that will easily cover both your needs and the horses’ needs, even if the horses don’t sell (or don’t sell soon enough). Enough to cover you and the horses for several months, if you must carry the horses longer than planned; if you are sick or injured and can’t continue their training; if an unforeseen catastrophe in your life claims all of your attention; etc.

Medical care: Have a general “if this, then that” plan for horses in sudden need of expensive medical care. Or less urgent but expensive medical care. Colic surgery. Laminitis. EPM. Injury. Bad feet. Worsening arthritis. Etc. If your plan is euthanasia, define your decision points now, because that is hard to do in the moment. Have a body disposal plan. Write it all down and have it easily accessible in the cloud or on your cell phone. It only takes one horse to run through several of these. But statistically the more horses you produce, the more probability of encountering a medical issue(s).

Have an overall project cancellation plan. If at any moment, some unanticipated event means that you cannot continue with your project (anything from serious injury to elopement to a wildly fantastic job offer in another part of the country) , have a plan for what you will do with the horses in as-is condition & training, at that moment.

Do not do this if you do not have:

1. Financial cushion, and plenty of it.
2. Plan for the horses in the event that you must sell, as-is, at short notice (whatever reason).
3. Plan for dealing with any horse suddenly needing high-cost medical care - and a plan for if it is more than one horse in need, at the same time.

One of the reasons your idea has an essential need for a generous financial cushion is that, in case of failure or postponement, your product can’t be stuffed in boxes and stacked in your garage. Broken items can’t be tossed in the trash. Those are the usual fallbacks when a small business has to pause, or end. In your case, you have an expensive exit to get out of an incomplete project, should it come to that.

If you don’t have a generous cash cushion that can remain untouched, put this plan off until you do. Develop that cash cushion first. Bank the cushion and never touch it, except when needed per the plan. ‘Borrowing’ from it means you don’t have it yet.

Too many wannabe businesses think only about the opportunity and fail to plan realistically for setbacks and sidetracks, and an outright need to bring it all to an abrupt end. Real life causes more business failures than bad ideas or poor management.

Think realistically about the what-if’s. Have a plan for the bad, as well as the good. You will be more protected from the consequences of the bad, and more prepared to take advantage of the opportunities for the good.

Good luck! Hope this works and you get some horses into some good, caring homes that treasure them.

[OverandOnward]

@anon40672407

Do you ride for a living? I’m wondering how many horses you could effectively work in a day, in order to put a few months of ‘basics’ on them. Sometimes a young horse needs lessons that don’t fit neatly in 30 minutes.

I was wondering the same thing.

I tend to have the idea “I can do a short 30 minute ride today, and keep the training flowing”, only to have the horse hanging hard on the bit, or going into meltdown because he saw a hungry bear (or thought he did), and needing a lot more time to get to a good stopping point. That can be especially tough during the short days of winter.

Maybe give it a trial run in late spring and summer, when the days are longest?

[LilRanger]

Stormy, having ridden a fair few of these types of horses, I think you’re on to something. The things they will have going for them is that they generally are used to lots of commotion, and they steer well. (My experience is that western horses learn to direct rein first, then neck rein)
I’ve seen a number of QH jump really well, and they tend to have a lovely bascule over the fence. As a kid, I rode a blue-blooded Hancock gelding as a hunter. He could do up to 3’. After that, he just couldn’t get over them without twisting. But he was a gem, never spooked, was always happy and cheerful.

[Libby2563]

Another thought: are you in an area where there are foxhunters who might like the safe, sturdy horses you’re describing? That could be a good fall-back for those that end up not being the show hunter type, if you can get them out hunting a few times and prove they have the brain for it.

[Heinz_57]

I keep reading this thread and thinking that these ‘ranch horses’ must be dude ranch horses, because where I live (‘out west’, though clearly a different west than where OP is shopping) actual ranch horses are the total opposite of what the average english ammy rider wants. And they definitely cost way more than $1-2k!

[McGurk]

Price point for a field hunter with a year or two of hunting is very good.

Price point for a green horse that’s been out a few times? Not so much.

The part of the OP’s plan that I initially liked was that the time required to convert a ranch broke QH to a local, ammy friendly show hunter is relatively short. Shorter that converting an OTTB to a show hunter, shorter than breaking and training a mustang, and shorter than finishing a horse in other disciplines.

So, while, yes, you’re right, QHs often make good field hunters because of their good brains, the time it would take to make up a “fairly hunted” field hunter is considerable.

And if you’re not already a foxhunter, either joining a hunt club or capping with one in order to give the horse the requisite experience is quite expensive.

[Libby2563]

Yes, you’re right of course that you’d need a substantial investment of time and money to get the higher price of a made hunt horse, but I don’t think OP needs to sell them for that much. Could she get the $5-6k she needs for one that has been out a few times and shows promise? I’d think so but that’s not my market so I don’t know. I do know that my vet who hunts says people are struggling to find field hunters to buy right now—another symptom of the current crazy market I assume! Who knows what it will be like next year though.

[MsM]

To me the biggest problem would be getting sound horses. Are you going to invest in vettings with radiographs? Will you insist on registered horses? - I know some unscrupulous folks sell stock horses with hereditary diseases on the papers as “grade” or “papers lost”. What is your plan for horses with lameness issues that cant be resolved?