The initial intent of these variously-enforced state “lockdowns” was to “flatten the curve.” Brief, not permanent.
The curve is flattening, whether by our behavior or the natural history of the virus itself, nobody knows. We like to think we can control Nature, but most often we can’t.
In Sweden, Massachusetts and California, antibody testing indicates we may be MUCH closer to protection by “herd immunity” than was thought, consistent with the pattern of other known respiratory viruses for which we have never undertaken such draconian restrictions of movement and activity.
If we might for a moment assume that the “curve is flattened” by May 1, for how much longer are you willing to keep your business shut down if you’re a barn owner?
For how much longer are you as a rider willing to shovel out board, shoeing and vet money without being able even to visit and groom let alone ride your horse?
If you compete, how long are you willing to wait before horse shows, events, rodeos etc. start up again? Next fall? Next spring? Two years, three? Are you willing to pay for full-service board all that time?
If you run a lesson stable, how long before you have to dump your schoolies at Shippensburg or Unadilla because you can’t afford to feed them OR pay your help with zero revenue? (Euthanasia on that scale would be prohibitive, too).
Most younger people, let’s face it, buy a horse and keep it in a (training) barn so they can take lessons and compete. Most of those horses are not pet or companion animals outside their primary function in sport, competition, the social mileu of same, and yes, the monetary VALUE all these things represent. Were that the case,
Dobbin would be in your backyard, eating apples. In pricey suburbia, backyard barns are now a thing of the past.
So how long, folks, are you going to hold onto your horses if those touting an open-ended lockdown of 12-18 months plus hold sway? We have never developed a vaccine successfully for most viruses, e.g. HIV.
How “safe” do you need to feel to be able to go back to the barn? Do you have a time limit on how long you’d stay away before selling your horse? And who in the world would even be buying?
I see a train wreck ahead for the entire horse industry; an epoch-changing one like the early-mid 20th century if this doesn’t lighten up really soon. People, kids especially, will simply get out of horses, forget all about riding, find other pastimes like the next big thing from Tech, and harried, money-stressed parents will breathe a sigh of relief as the entire expensive, time-demanding, hazardous, inconvenient, anachronistic equestrian sport and business cease to exist. This could happen as soon as next fall.
Unless you abandon this illusion of safety NOW and find a way to run your business with intelligent, appropriate, science-based social-distancing precautions. I sincerely hope American ingenuity is still equal to that task.
