On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

[Glimmerglass]

Ramon likely off for 2-weeks which nixes his chances to ride Alpha if he went into the Florida Derby. The connections think they’ll run him in the Wood and as you can assume there is no way in heck he’d give up riding Hansen for Alpha

With Hansen’s majority owner being a doctor you can guess he’s offered a hand:

Steve Rushing, Dominguez’s agent, said he spoke with Mike Maker, trainer of Hansen, on Monday, but was “never asked for a timeframe” when Dominguez would be back.

“Mike Maker called me this morning, and he said that Dr. [Kendall] Hansen” owner of Hansen, “deals with pain management and he said if Ramon needs anything to give him a call,” Rushing said.

If two weeks hold true then no problem riding Hansen April 7th in the Wood then the following weekend Havre de Grace in the Apple Blossom on April 13 at Oaklawn.

For the Grade 1 $1 million Florida Derby on March 31 the field is gelling whereby we’re apt to see seven runners in that race: Union Rags, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Neck 'n Neck, News Pending, Reveron, and Fort Loudon.

How does it look with graded stakes earnings list? As of March 19, 2012 here is the list

The cut-off horse (assuming for example the filly On Fire Baby does enter) would be right now #20 My Adonis with $130,000 in graded earnings trained by Kelly Breen. Still plenty of big races on the horizon to vault new comers. Bodemeister, for example, with just $60k is way back at 43rd.

[Glimmerglass]

Two Kentucky Derby prep races on the schedule for this weekend. This kicks off NBC Sports coverage of the ‘Road to the Derby’ series on Saturday. It appears they’ve brought on board a lot of HRTV folks.

Saturday (3-24) Turfway Park’s Grade-3 $500,000 Vinery Spiral at 1 1/8M.

The field to be drawn on Wednesday. Expected among the full field on the synthetic track will be Todd Pletcher trained Heavy Breathing (with Castellano up) and Holiday Promise (with Junior Alvarado up).

In addition to TVG airing the race it will be held (along with the filly showcase) on the former OLN/VERSUS network which was rebranded as NBC Sports Network. Not all cable outlets have it.

Saturday, March 24, 2012, 5-6 p.m. Eastern (on NBC Sports Network)
Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes and Bourbonette Oaks (Turfway Park)
Host: Laffit Pincay, III
Analysts: Gary Stevens, Randy Moss
Reporters: Donna Brothers, Jay Privman, Millie Ball
Track Announcer: Mike Battaglia

Sunday (3-25) at Sunland Park in NM is the Grade-3 $800,000 Sunland Derby at 1 1/8M distance

Final field to be announced shortly. TVG will air the race exclusively. As has been the trend Bob Baffert will send a solid runner to pick up a big check. In this case Castaway from his barn is being sent to the New Mexico track as will be Baffert trainee Stirred Up. The latter is a recent maiden winner at Santa Anita and will have Martin Garcia up. Whereas Rafael Bejarano will be on Castaway. Also expected is Ender Knievel, trained by Todd Pletcher and shipping in from Gulfstream Park, where he was a recent maiden winner, with John Velazquez up.

[Glimmerglass]

Inside Post - tweet 3-21-12

Dominguez said doctors told him he may only have to miss this week. May return on the 31st. A virtual certainty he’ll make the Wood.

[Glimmerglass]

Just a field of 8 for the $800k Sunland Derby (G3) - Race 12 - Sunday March 25th (off at approx 5:45pm MTN)

Weight will be 122-lbs for all. With $400,000 in graded earnings, this year’s Sunland Derby Grade 3 winner almost is assured of gate in the Kentucky Derby.

PP. Horse. Jockey – Trainer

1. Castaway. R Bejarano – B Baffert
2. Ender Knievel. J R Velazquez – T A Pletcher
3. Stirred Up. M Garcia – B Baffert
4. Isn’t He Clever. L Contreras – H Dominguez
5. No Spin. C Hill – T A Ice
6. Daddy Nose Best. J R Leparoux – S M Asmussen
7. Tequila Factor. M Hernandez – C L Wilson
8. Justanoldsong. R Eikleberry – D Wolochuk

It’s not often you’ll ever see a Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith owned entry at Sunland Park - they own Castaway;)

[Glimmerglass]

Hold the phone … Hansen’s connections appear to be ready to skip the $1M Wood Memorial and instead going for the synthetic surface of Keeneland and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes April 14th.

From the DRF 3-22-12

Hansen said he had a long list of reasons why the Blue Grass was a better alternative, not the least of which was his desire to keep the horse in Kentucky.

“It’s home, it’s safer for the horse to have to travel less, and he can sleep in his own stall and go right over for the race,” Hansen said. “Plus, Keeneland has such an atmosphere, it’s so romantic there, it’s kind of what I’m in the game for. Even though it’s less money than the Wood, it just seems to make more sense to run him in the Blue Grass.”

[Glimmerglass]

The field for the (Race 10) Vinery Racing Spiral S. (G3) has been drawn and its a full field. Again it will be aired on the NBC Sports Network (nee Versus/OLN) channel and TVG.

123-lbs for all. 1 1/8 mi on the synthetic surface.

PP. Horse - Trainer - Jockey

1. Russian Greek - Jerry Hollendorfer - Corey Nakatani
2. Red Jack - D. Wayne Lukas - Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
3. Heavy Breathing - Todd Pletcher - Javier Castellano
4. Went the Day Well - Graham Motion - John Velazquez
5. Holiday Promise - Todd Pletcher - Junior Alvarado
6. All Squared Away - Peter Miller - Luis Contreras
7. Ill Conceived - John Servis - Stewart Elliott
8. Coach Royal - Justin Sallusto - Fernando Jara
9. Tizanexpense - - Michael Maker - Victor Lebron
10. Mr. Prankster - Michael Maker - Rosie Napravnik
11. Stealcase - Mark Casse - Rajiv Maragh
12. Handsome Mike - Doug O’Neill - Joel Rosario

With a total purse of $500k that means the winner will add $300,000 in graded money to their earnings. It should be good enough to gain a berth to the Derby.

The D. Wayne Lukas entry of Red Jack seems like the classic out of his league runner but wishing/hoping. With a career of 9 starts 1-0-2, he comes off a 3rd place effort in a $50k claiming race at Oaklawn on March 4th. Prior to that it was 11th (last) in the (G3) Southwest Stakes where he effectively stopped by the 3/4 mi mark.

[Glimmerglass]

re: Saturday’s Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park

In addition to TVG and NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus) having coverage from 5-6 p.m. EST the Saturday card will also be streamed live for free on The Daily Racing Form’s site: Live link here

The morning-line odds favorite (@ 3-1) is Heavy Breathing [breaking from PP3] followed by (@ 4-1) the Graham Motion trained Went The Day Well

Latest KYD: March 19, 2012 Wynn-Encore Las Vegas Future Odds (pdf)

Hansen is back down to 12-1 & Union Rags 4-1

[Glimmerglass]

Video replay: $800k Sunland Derby (G3) Sun March 25th"

This assures Daddy Nose Best of having a starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. He picked up $120,000 in graded earnings for his prior win in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate and now added another $400,000 for this win. Steve Asmussen will have to get a new jockey for the First Saturday in May as Julien has other mounts such as Union Rags

2nd place ‘Isn’t He Clever’ is not nominated to the Triple Crown series. Final order after Daddy Nose Best - Isn’t He Clever (who is no nominated to the TC), Stirred Up, No Spin in fourth, followed by Ender Knievel, Tequila Factor, Castaway, and Justanoldsong.

Video replay: $500k Vinery Spiral Stakes (G3) Sat March 24th

The same Animal Kingdom-team returns (Team Valor & Motion) with Went The Day Well. He added $282,000 of the $500,000 purse making a Derby start almost assured. Speedwise he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 92 in the Spiral whereas for comparison Animal Kingdom got a 94 Beyer last year.

Up next, most likely, for ‘Went The Day Well’ is the Grade 3, $200,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes on April 21 at Keeneland. As for 4th place finisher Doug O’Neil trained Handsome Mike, the connections are likely going to try again in three weeks with the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14. With just $73,500 in graded money and 1 win in 7 starts it seems a bit futile.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6218393]
$800k Sunland Derby (G3) Sun March 25th

2nd place ‘Isn’t He Clever’ is not nominated to the Triple Crown series.[/QUOTE]

The connections must have thought they had a good chance at Sunland Park as less than 24-hour earlier they sent in the nomination along with the $6,000 check meeting the eligibility cutoff of midnight Saturday

The most accomplished of the horses on the list of 20 Triple Crown late nominations include Shivananda Parbhoo’s Trinniberg, winner of the Swale (G3); J. Kirk and Judy Robison’s Isn’t He Clever, runner-up in Sunday’s Sunland Derby (G3) and winner of the Borderland Derby; Starlight Stable’s Heavy Breathing, third to Went the Day Well in Saturday’s Vinery Racing Spiral (G2) at Turfway Park; owner-trainer Fred Seitz’s Flashy Dresser, winner of Turfway’s Rushaway; Magic City Thoroughbred Partners’ Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up Golden Ticket; and Stephen R. Brown’s Jake Mo, runner-up to Castaway in a division of Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (G3).

As has been the rule for a while if a jaw dropping late bloomer suddenly appears who isn’t nominated to the TC the connections will have to pony up a huge check: Owners and trainers have one more opportunity to make their horses eligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby. Supplemental nominations can be made at the time of entry on Wednesday, May 2 at a cost of $200,000, or 10 percent of the $2 million-guaranteed purse.

However any horse via the supplemental nomination (10% deposit) actually go to the bottom of the graded stakes earnings list even if they have graded stakes earnings. That means if more than the maximum 20 horses are entered in the Derby, any horse who was nominated at the first two stages would get into the race before the “10% deposit” horse regardless of they have less graded money.

On tap next weekend for Derby trail races?

$1 million Florida Derby (G1) Saturday at Gulfstream Park
$2 million UAE Derby (G2) Saturday in Dubai [six of the 14 horses in the body UAE Derby field are nominated to the Triple Crown.]
$1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) Sunday at the Fair Grounds

[dressagetraks]

Who else is likely heading for Arkansas? Is the Rebel winner returning?

I’m getting excited about being there that Saturday. Both the Ark Derby and the Oaklawn Handicap run on the same day this year.

[Glimmerglass]

Drawn field for the $1 Million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby for Sun April 1st

Most notable is that Mr. Bowling (PP7) and Mark Valeski (PP8) both owned by Brereton C. Jones (and trained by Larry Jones) will be a coupled entry. All carry 122-lbs.

PP. Horse. Jockey. M-L odds

1.  Fire Alarm.	Miguel Mena.	20-1
   

2.  Windsurfer. 	John Velazquez. 	12-1
   

3.  Finnegans Wake. 	Corey Lanerie. 	15-1
   

4.  Flashy Sunrise. 	Rajiv Maragh. 	30-1
   

5.  Cigar Street. 	Shaun Bridgmohan. 	7-2
   

6.  Shared Property. 	Leandro Goncalves. 	10-1
   

7.  Mr. Bowling. 	Robby Albarado. 	2-1
   

8.  Mark Valeski. 	Rosie Napravnik 	2-1
   

9.  Arm Force. 	Julien Leparoux. 	20-1
   

10.   	Comisky's Humor. 	Richard Eramia. 	20-1
    

11.   	Z Dager. 	Shane Sellers. 	8-1
    

12.   	Rousing Sermon. 	Mike Smith. 	6-1
    

13.   	Hero Of Order. 	Eddie Martin Jr.  	30-1
    

14.   	Afford. 	James Graham. 	15-1
    

A bit surprising that the Jim Tafel (of Street Sense fame) owned “Afford” has the meet’s #2 jockey (behind Rosie) James Graham up but is pegged at such a high price of 15-1. Expect that to drop by the time the gates open. Graham knows the FG course like the back of his hand.

[Glimmerglass]

Worth noting that in the field for the $2 million UAE Derby is Maritimer who was a finalist for the Sovereign Award as Canada’s leading 2-year-old male.

As noted previously in this thread Maritimer back in January was sold to Chechnyan president Ramzan Kadyrov and is trained by Herman Brown. He’ll break from post 3 and will be ridden by Glyn Schofield. Even if he does win the UAE don’t expect him to make a Kentucky Derby appearance as racing authorities will not allow owner Ramzan to run horses in their State at present.

[Glimmerglass]

Uninjured but off the Derby Trail: Discreet Dancer

It’s characterized by trainer Todd Pletcher as “taking a break” for the horse that finished 3rd last time out behind Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth.

“Everything seemed to be happening a little too quickly for him, and we thought maybe he was not quite ready for all this right now. His last race was a little bit of a puzzler, and although he trained okay since, I didn’t feel he was getting ready to win the Kentucky Derby, so we decided to take the conservative approach and give him a little chance to grow up and mature.”

Smart move and applaud Robsham Stables - and Todd with his advice - for not getting whipped up into the Derby Fever.

The 3rd and final Churchill Downs run Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool cutoff will be extended by at least an hour later than normal - to accommodate the outcome of the $1M Louisiana Derby. The field to be announced Thursday (3-29).

Churchill Downs officials said Tuesday they intend to move back the customary closing time of the third and final pool of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Future Wager to accommodate the running of the Louisiana Derby.

Pool 3 opens Friday at noon Eastern and was scheduled to close at 6 p.m. Sunday. However, with Fair Grounds having scheduled a 5:55 p.m. Eastern post for the Louisiana Derby, the pool “will not close until 6:30 and maybe even 7,” Churchill spokesman John Asher said Tuesday.

[Glimmerglass]

As a reminder this Saturday’s Gulfstream Park two showcase races will be on NBC Sports Network. The Florida Derby will be drawn at 12:40 p.m. on Wednesday at a special Derby luncheon.

A field of at least seven are expected: Union Rags (Julien Leparoux); El Padrino (Javier Castellano), Take Charge Indy (Calvin Borel); Reveron (Elvis Trujillo); News Pending (Rajiv Maragh); Fort Loudon (Jeffrey Sanchez); and Neck ‘n Neck (Edgar Prado). Its remote that Alpha will suddenly appear as they’re playing duck any serious competition with him.

Saturday, March 31, 2012, 5-6 p.m. EST
NBC Sports Network - formerly VERSUS
$1M Grade 1 Florida Derby and $300k Grade 2 Gulfstream Oaks
Host: Tom Hammond
Analysts: Gary Stevens, Randy Moss
Reporters: Bob Neumeier, Kenny Rice, Christina Olivares
Track Announcer: Larry Collmus

[Mali]

Post Positions for The Florida Derby!

Florida Derby (G1)

Post time: Saturday at 5:38 p.m. at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. Purse: $1 million. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. Weight: 122 pounds. TV: NBC Sports Network, HRTV.
Pp horse jockey/trainer odds

1. Fort Loudon Sanchez/Gold 20-1
2. News Pending Maragh/Romans 8-1
3. Take Charge Indy Borel/Byrne 5-1
4. Neck N’ Neck Prado/Wilkes 20-1
5. Z Camelot Bravo/Romans 50-1
6. Union Rags Leparoux/Matz 6-5
7. Bartolome Castanon/Garoffalo 30-1
8. El Padrino Castellano/Pletcher 2-1
9. Reveron Trujillo/Bezara 12-1

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Mali;6222901]
Florida Derby (G1)
6. Union Rags Leparoux/Matz 6-5 [/QUOTE]

Wow 6-5 for the morning line no less. Seems a tad aggressive with a runner like El Padrino in there who likes a ‘dog fight’ in the stretch.

Union Rags is used to decent sized fields as he had 5 foes in his 1st race; 8 in his 2nd; 12 in his 3rd the BC JV; and 7 in his last start. A gather of defeated runners by him are otherwise assembled. He will be seeing the same old faces again as he’s run against News Pending, Neck 'n Neck, Fort Loudon, and Take Charge Indy.

DRF’s Dick Jeradi contradicts the 6-5 ML too although he suspect a triple digit Beyer Speed Fig will finally be produced by UR:

The presence of El Padrino is what makes this Florida Derby so fascinating. The colt’s 100 Beyer in his comeback race and 98 in his Risen Star win demonstrate he has made a giant leap from his 2-year-old season when his Beyers were 71, 75 and 79 when a close third in the Remsen.

Be interesting to see how this race gets bet. Don’t think Union Rags is going to be the second favorite or anything like the 6-5 he was in the Fountain of Youth again. Clearly, the public was thinking Discreet Dancer was the now horse and Union Rags wasn’t going to show his best stuff.

[Glimmerglass]

The third and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager for 2012 opens Friday March 30th. Here are the named horse options and the opening ML odds plus the 1st and 2nd pool closing odds. I’m still thrilled at having locked in Hansen at 26-1 back in pool 1

2012 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3
(Prog. No., Horse, Pool 3 M/L, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 Odds)

1. Alpha, 20-1, 18-1, 19-1
2. Bodemeister, 12-1, 29-1, 3-2(f)
3. Creative Cause, 10-1, 17-1, 17-1
4. Daddy Nose Best, 15-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
5. Dullahan, 30-1, 26-1, 40-1
6. El Padrino, 12-1, 12-1, 16-1
7. Gemologist, 20-1, 23-1, 22-1
8. Hansen, 6-1, 9-1, 26-1
9. Howe Great, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
10. I’ll Have Another, 20-1, 22-1, 29-1
11. Liaison, 30-1, 39-1, 56-1
12. Mark Valeski, 30-1, 38-1, 3-2(f)
13. Midnight Transfer, 50-1, 73-1, 67-1
14. My Adonis, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
15. News Pending, 50-1, 45-1, 3-2(f)
16. *-On Fire Baby, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
17. Optimizer, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
18. Prospective, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
19. Sabercat, 50-1, 30-1, 34-1
20. Secret Circle, 15-1, 37-1, 3-2(f)
21. Take Charge Indy, 50-1, 38-1, 42-1
22. Union Rags, 3-1, 4-1, 7-1
23. Went the Day Well, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
24. Mutuel field (all others), 6-1, 3-1, 3-2

(f) – denotes field horse

• – denotes filly

Relative to this weekend’s Graded Stakes action just a handful of named horses (non-Mutual field) are running and with it implications of large wagering swings. They are:

Besides Union Rags, other separately listed Pool 3 horses set for the Florida Derby are El Padrino, News Pending, and Take Charge Indy. Only one Pool 3 horse, Mark Valeski, is among the 14 3-year-olds entered in the Louisiana Derby. No Pool 3 horse is entered in the $2 million UAE Derby.

[Glimmerglass]

Many articles on the forthcoming FL Derby - example here:

Miami Herald 3-29-12 “Mellow Union Rags is Michael Matz’s next hope at Florida Derby”

wo days before the biggest race of his 3-year life, Union Rags followed his usual mellow routine.

At about 12:30 p.m. he always takes a nap.

“You can set your clock by him,” said assistant trainer Peter Brette.

Sure enough, at 12:33 p.m. Union Rags let out a soft sigh-whinny, folded himself down onto his bed of hay and went to sleep.

The article cites more on MM and the fallout from his prior Derby success:

Matz didn’t know whether he would get a chance to train another Triple Crown contender. His prospects took an unexpected dive in July when Barbaro’s owners, Roy and Gretchen Jackson, ended their 10-year relationship with Matz, removed their 11 horses from his Fair Hill, Md., stable and fired him with no explanation.

“It hurt an awful lot at the time, but we had to move on,” Matz said. “I wish them the best of luck. No hard feelings.”

Wyeth, 71, is married to artist Jamie Wyeth, the son of the late artist Andrew Wyeth. She worked in the White House under John F. Kennedy. She was an accomplished rider until she was paralyzed in a car accident. Now she gets around the stables in a wheelchair.

“She’s sent horses to me on and off for 10 years,” Matz said. “She kept telling me, ‘I’ll get you a good horse.’ She’s had a lot of decent horses but none as special as Union Rags. I hope for her sake that he keeps winning.”

Matz, 61, the son of a Pennsylvania plumber, had his first success in show jumping. He was a three-time Olympian and won $1.7 million as a show jumper. He made the transition to training thoroughbreds after the 1996 Games. He started with three horses, has 65 today.

[Glimmerglass]

Live on-line video of the FL Derby (about 5-min out) with Union Rags at 1-9 WOW

http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/gulfstream/247424

[Glimmerglass]

Video replay: Group 1 UAE Derby $2M March 31, 2012

From that race there is a very good chance that the O’Brien / Coolmore crew will have not one but two runners in the First Saturday in May event. Both Daddy Long Legs and Wrote (IRE) have been Triple Crown nominated and have been tracked for months in the top tier for graded earnings.

Irish-based but actually US-bred Daddy Long Legs, a Group 2 winner at a mile on turf in Europe, was making his first start since finishing 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on dirt at Churchill last November. He was ridden by Colm O’Donoghue.

Both horses running could mean this Kentucky Derby might take on added interest in Europe accordingly.

It’s unclear if the very well beat Lucky Chappy (IRE) - finishing seventh - will still be considered for the Kentucky Derby