On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

[dressagetraks]

Secret Circle out with an injury per Blood Horse.

One of those neat little moments you had to be on site to see - after the Arkansas Derby, while everybody was waiting for Bodemeister to come back with his victory escort and I’m sure the cameras were all on Bodemeister or the broadcasters, Secret Circle got back to the front side first, and the jockey rode him up to the assistant (didn’t look like Baffert) and connections waiting for Bodemeister. Assistant (?) reached out to greet Secret Circle as he walked up and rubbed him along his forehead and up to his ears for a minute, and Secret Circle leaned into it. Looked just like something anybody’s everyday horse would do, just getting some scritches and loving. The assistant (?) obviously knew that horse’s spots. Just a neat affectionate moment there with the one who didn’t win.

[Glimmerglass]

@dressagetraks;6265186

Secret Circle out with an injury per Blood Horse.

Yep, Secret Circle off the Derby trail

Secret Circle was undergoing precautionary medical tests at a veterinary clinic in Lexington, Ky., on Thursday. The trainer said that was unlikely that Secret Circle would need any sort of surgery.

It doesn’t sound career ending so that’s good news. He wasn’t a horse I would back at all for the Derby. So the musical chairs continue and everyone moves up one rung in the quest to get into the field of 20.

Wrote (IRE) by the way has been dropped by the Daily Racing Form for Derby consideration although I have yet to see any statement from Aidan O’Brien or the connections.

[Glimmerglass]

An amusing remark by Kiaran - stay optimistic my friends!

McLaughlin is still waiting for Ramon Dominguez to make a decision between Alpha and Hansen. On Thursday morning, Dominguez said he had not yet decided.

No way, no day short of Hansen having some problem arise.

Alpha, a well documented horse on the mend, finally put in a work today which was considered positive:

On Thursday, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin got his first look at Alpha on the track since his runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial on April 7 and was satisfied with what he saw in the colt’s 1 1/8-mile gallop over Belmont Park’s main track.

[Glimmerglass]

Regarding Ramon a dubious statistic as of the conclusion of today’s (4/19) card at Aqueduct:

After getting beat in AQU 9th, Ramon Dominguez now 0 for 17 since coming back from collarbone injury.

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Glad to hear about Alpha’s positive work today!

He’s in my top 6 actually - more of a heart choice than a head choice as at the end of the day based on the Juvenile I don’t think he’ll like CD, period.

With so many interesting choices this year I am feeling better about winnowing down to 6 horses! Now it’s all about the works …

[Glimmerglass]

Derby fever always sets in about now and another example of “never say never” with a horse suggested originally as almost certainly not going:

Mike Welch (DRF) Tweet FRI 4-20: “Trinniberg work, decision on possible Derby start scheduled for today has been postponed for at least one more day.”

He’s currently at #15 with $324,500 in earnings so assured to go if they want to.

Current graded earnings with likely Derby starters

Rank Horse (Trainer) Earnings

1. Hansen (Michael Maker) $1,550,000
2. Daddy Long Legs (Aidan O’Brien $1,294,030
3. Union Rags (Michael Matz) $1,170,000
4. Dullahan (Dale Romans) $855,000
5. Creative Cause (Mike Harrington) $836,000
6. Gemologist (Todd Pletcher) $703,855
7. Sabercat (Steve Asmussen) $701,429
8. Take Charge Indy (Patrick Byrne) $698,400
9. Bodemeister (Bob Baffert) $660,000

10. I'll Have Another 	(Doug O'Neill) 	$601,000
    

11. Daddy Nose Best 	(Steve Asmussen) 	$545,558
    

12. Liaison 	(Bob Baffert) 	$393,000
    

13. Alpha 	(Kiaran McLaughlin) 	$380,000
    

14 Prospective (Mark Casse) $367,327
15. Trinniberg (Bisnath Parboo) $324,500 << 60/40 chances of skipping
16. Done Talking (Hamilton Smith) $311,000
17. Went the Day Well (Graham Motion) $282,000
18. Rousing Sermon (Jerry Hollendorfer) $270,000
19. Mark Valeski (Larry Jones) $260,000
20. El Padrino (Todd Pletcher) $250,000

21. Reveron 	(Agustin Bezara) 	$220,000
    

22. Isn't He Clever 	(Henry Dominguez) 	$188,000
    

23. Optimizer 	(D. Wayne Lukas) 	$184,708
    

24. Castaway (Bob Baffert) $162,000 << running this weekend in Coolmore Lexington and is the ML favorite - a win adds $120k on top in graded$$

Omitted is “Hero of Order” with $617,375 but not TC nominated; Secret Circle removed, Wrote (IRE) removed, Pants on Fire (f) removed

I wonder if Aidan O’Brien would continue to retain the services of Irish jockey Colm O’Donoughue for Daddy Long Legs with the Kentucky Derby or opt for a US-based jock more familiar with Churchill?

For those interested in the breeding side and in particular Dullahan here is an interesting backstory on the dam - Mining My Own:

DRF 4-19-12 “Dullahan’s dam could make Kentucky Derby history” - excerpt

Mining My Own’s son Mine That Bird shocked the nation by winning the Kentucky Derby at 50-1. And now that her son Dullahan is heading to Louisville off his recent Blue Grass Stakes win, Mining My Own could become the first broodmare in history to produce two Kentucky Derby winners.

[Glimmerglass]

#18. Rousing Sermon (Jerry Hollendorfer) $270,000

Despite winning just 2 of 9 it’s all systems go for this colt owned by breeders Larry and Marianne Williams of Idaho. No named rider as of yet.

[Pallas]

Much as I enjoyed watching Bodemeister live yesterday, I must admit, the name grates on me, too.

It’s unanimous. A colt whose sire is Empire Maker by Unbridled and whose dam is Untouched Talent out of Parade Queen: unraced at two but with a royal lineage, he might better have been named, Uncrowned.

[Glimmerglass]

No horses winning the last graded grab of stakes money (although there is next weekend the Derby Trial) this weekend - the Coolmore Lexington or Jerome Stakes - received enough money to vault into the Derby.

Although All Squared Away at 70-1 taking the G3 Coolmore Lexington was lovely! Video Replay of the Keeneland feature APR 21, 2012 - fun!

As for Derby changes there were a couple:

Trinniberg, whose connections said he was “likely” Preakness bound have caught the fever and are Kentucky Derby bound. I’m not shocked

Injured and off the trail: Reveron

trainer Agustin Bezara discovered his star had sustained a hairline fracture of the left front ankle, all but ending his 3-year-old campaign.

“He’ll be out four to six months,” said Bezara. “It’s not a career-ending injury, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time. I’ve been training horses for a long time and have been through this kind of thing before. But this was the Derby and I was really looking forward to the opportunity to starting my first Derby runner.”

That change puts Isn’t He Cleaver on the bubble. ($191,333 in graded stakes earnings, leaving him 21st) Although interestingly his owner transferred him to Steve Asmussen’s stable. His owner, J. Kirk Robison, wants him to race in the Derby if he gets in.

[Glimmerglass]

Nobody should be shocked Ramon Dominguez keeps mount on Hansen

I’m still spooked by his glaringly poor dry spell since returning from injury: [Ramon is] winless in 26 mounts - with 10 second-place finishes - since returning to the saddle on April 6.

Another jock locking up a ride: Rafael Bejarano takes Pletcher-trained El Padrino. So that means for Alpha the connections are thinking maybe Eddie Castro or Alan Garcia.

[Glimmerglass]

Also there is one reason to support Hansen with the Kentucky Derby - As Dr. Kendall Hansen shared on his blog last week:

I will announce now that 1% of the amount Hansen wins in the Kentucky Derby will go to New Vocations, just as Hansen did with his winnings in the Grey Goose Breeders Cup Juvenile. I hope and encourage other owners and trainers participating in this years Oaks and Derby cards to consider doing the same for their favorite horse related charity.

The winner’s share of the Kentucky Derby purse is $1,411,800. So it could be (with a victory) of somewhere in the neighborhood of $11,000.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6266592]
I wonder if Aidan O’Brien would continue to retain the services of Irish jockey Colm O’Donoughue for Daddy Long Legs with the Kentucky Derby or opt for a US-based jock more familiar with Churchill?[/QUOTE]

Confirmed this evening (4-23).

His Derby status was confirmed via a Twitter message from Ballydoyle.

He will be ridden in the Run for the Roses by Colm O’Donoghue

Daddy Long Legs (KY) will travel from his base at Ballydoyle in Ireland early next week for the May 5 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brand

He’s owned by Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith

[Glimmerglass]

The last grab at graded earnings before the Kentucky Derby is primed for this Saturday (4-28). Although no Kentucky Derby bubble horses are to be found.

Still it’s expected to be a full house for the 1-mile Grade 3, $200,000 Derby Trial to be held Saturday evening under the lights at Churchill Downs.

At least 12 3-year-olds, none of them candidates to run back a week later in the Derby, are likely when entries for the 88th Trial are taken Wednesday. Among the likely favorites are Bourbon Courage, a romping winner of his two career starts, and Paynter, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.

Other probables include Hierro, Kid Sidney, Motor City, Nonios, Quick Wit, Saint of Saints, Seve, Shared Property, Stealcase, and The Black.

This will be the second year the Trial is run at night.

[Glimmerglass]

#12. Liaison (Bob Baffert) at $393,000 did his work at Churchill Tuesday morning (4-24) and Baffert says he is a go for the KY Derby. I don’t see where he’ll be anything more than an also-ran but I don’t call the shots.

“I’m going to run him,” Baffert said. "I loved the way he went over this track. What a difference. Santa Anita, he just hated that place. He worked well the other day at Hollywood Park and today he looked like a different horse going around there.

“He still has a mountain to climb but we’re going to work him here and we’re going to give him a chance.”

Martin Garcia gets the ride.

[Trevelyan96]

I haven’t been following the contenders but just happened to catch the FL Derby and commented to Mr. Trev that Union Rags seemed to be galloping very easy in the backstretch, and I was watching him for the ‘next gear’.

I honestly think that if he hadn’t been caught in traffic on the home stretch, he would have won that race going away by lengths.

He’d definitely my favorite for the Derby.

[dressagetraks]

I wish there were some sort of way to bet a horse to win ANY Triple Crown race. Just to get there in at least one of the three.

I think Bodemeister will win ONE of them this year, but I’m not quite convinced it will be the Derby.

[Glimmerglass]

#10. I’ll Have Another (trained by Doug O’Neill) with $601,000 GE

Per the Paulick Report the horse is on the vet’s list at Santa Anita Park: - the actual date of treament appears to be April 20th

California Horse Racing Board rules automatically place a horse on the vet’s list for 10 days when it undergoes shockwave therapy.

Trainer Doug O’Neill said the son of Flower Alley will go off the list after 10 days and his training for the Kentucky Derby is not being affected in any way.

Horses are not permitted to race for 10 days in California after receiving the therapy.

“We don’t do it a lot, but we shock-waved his back,” said O’Neill. “He gets a little tight in the lumbar area right behind where the saddle sits. It’s Paul Reddam’s horse, and he was OK spending the money to do the therapy.”

Kentucky Horse Racing Authority regulations

Section 20. Other Prohibited Practices; (5) Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy or Radial Pulse Wave Therapy shall not be used unless the following conditions are met: (a) A treated horse shall not race for a minimum of ten (10) days following treatment;

[Glimmerglass]

Isn’t He Clever (Henry Dominguez) with $188,000 in GE

Withdrawn from Derby consideration

Isn’t He Clever will now be pointed toward the May 19 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) at Pimlico Race Course or the June 9 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park.

Owned by J. Kirk and Judy Robison, Isn’t He Clever has won or placed in six of eight starts and has earned $395,293.

Since the Smarty Jones gelding was 21st on the graded-stakes earnings list that will determine the 20-horse starting field for the Derby, that spot will now be filled by Optimizer.

Looks like Jon Court and D. Wayne Lukas most likely will get a Derby crack with Optimizer. His woeful last effort in the $1M Grade 1 Arkansas Derby however never explained.

[Glimmerglass]

If a horse feeling their oats is a good is a good sign, then you’re in luck with Alpha. Per a tweet from his Wed (4-25):

A good-feeling Alpha rears up and unseats exercise rider coming off Bel training track after gallop. Groom had reins so he didn’t get loose.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;6275670]
I think Bodemeister will win ONE of them this year, but I’m not quite convinced it will be the Derby.[/QUOTE]

If he doesn’t win the Derby I’d think it ambitious to wheel him back - considering he’s so lightly raced - for the Preakness. If he fails to win win both I’d think trying for the Belmont should then give anyone in a deciding role some pause before saying yes.

As noted in the press today a 1/3 interest in Bodemeister was just sold to Southern Equine Stable the remaining 2/3rds are held by Zayat Stables.

ETA: - Aidan O’Brien seems to be of the “let’s just see if something sticks” camp with Ireland-based Daddy Long Legs. His remarks don’t exactly instill a great deal of confidence - or is he crazy like a fox throwing off punters?

“We have to try anyway. You can’t win if you’re not in the race. He seems to be fine. He was in Dubai and we obviously were happy with him there, so I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we?”

“That was a very good first run in Dubai,” O’Brien said. "I know it might not be up to (American) standards, and he probably needs to improve, but he’s in good form and that’s all we can ask for.

O’Brien will be trying to top last year’s fifth-place finish by Master of Hounds in the Run for the Roses, in which the colt closed fast to be beaten only five lengths.