On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

[Glimmerglass]

Field is set!

Hansen takes the 14th spot which means he’ll have that added gap to his right when the aux. gate hooks up for gates 15 - 20. How are the chances when breaking from 14? Well the last winner was in 1961 with Carry Back.

Note: Liaison and Went the Day Well will both wear blinkers

138th Kentucky Derby (Grade 1)
Post Time: 6:24 ET
Purse: $2,000,000
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
126-lbs for all

PP. Horse. Jockey. ML Odds

1. Daddy Long Legs, Colm O’Donoghue, 30-1
2. Optimizer, Jon Court, 50-1
3. Take Charge Indy, Calvin Borel, 15-1
4. Union Rags, Julien Leparoux, 9-2
5. Dullahan, Kent Desormeaux, 8-1
   6. Bodemeister, Mike Smith, 4-1 <- ML favorite
6. Rousing Sermon, Jose Lezcano, 50-1
7. Creative Cause, Joel Rosario, 12-1
8. Trinniberg, Willie Martinez, 50-1
9. Daddy Nose Best, Garret Gomez, 15-1
10. Alpha, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1
11. Prospective, Luis Contreras, 30-1
12. Went the Day Well, John Velazquez, 20-1
13. Hansen, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
14. Gemologist, Javier Castellano, 6-1
15. El Padrino, Rafael Bejarano, 20-1
16. Done Talking, Sheldon Russell, 50-1
17. Sabercat, Corey Nakatani, 30-1
18. I’ll Have Another, Mario Gutierrez, 12-1
19. Liaison, Martin Garcia, 50-1
    …
    21 (AE) My Adonis, E. Trujillo, (No ML)

[solstince]

Historically, what are the longest odds you usually get in the Derby?

[vineyridge]

Take Charge Indy got a good draw for Borel who just about owns Churchill Downs, doesn’t he? Horse looks to be worth a few dollar bet at those odds.

Question. If I were to find a betting place tomorrow, say, and bought my ticket, would I get the odds for tomorrow or the odds on race day?

[jennywho]

Unless you are betting some kind of sports book in Vegas you will get the odds that the horse goes off at at post time.

If take charge Indy stays at 15-1 I’m all over it. Loved his mama.

[solstince]

[QUOTE=jennywho;6290774]
Unless you are betting some kind of sports book in Vegas you will get the odds that the horse goes off at at post time.

If take charge Indy stays at 15-1 I’m all over it. Loved his mama.[/QUOTE]

I meant to ask, out of the entire field, what are usually the ML odds of the longest shot going into the derby on race day? 50-1? 80-1? etc

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=solstince;6290724]
Historically, what are the longest odds you usually get in the Derby?[/QUOTE]

There is no way to answer that. You can however look at this list going back to 1970 with the odds for the winning horse. They range from the shortest ever - 1979’s Spectacular Bid (as closest as anything came to a guaranteed win) at 0.60 to 1 to Mine That Bird at 50.60 to 1

Almost certainly the favorite at post-time for this year’s Derby will be a rather long price. I doubt the wagering public will be able to justify one horse less that 3-1

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=dreamswept;6288011]
Oh boy! I hope he has people handing them out walking ring side instead of throwing them. I’d take one. Can it have a partially dyed blue tail?[/QUOTE]

re: Hansen and his 3,000 Hansen toys to give away

Nada on the handing out …

Dr. Hansen, who attempted to paint his colt’s tail blue at the Blue Grass, said he plans to bring little rubber white horses to the track on Saturday.

“I have a pain clinic, I do injections on spines, we have little squeeze toys our patients squeeze,” Hansen said. “We’ve had brown horses for years, we had some white ones made and we’ll try to hit people in the head with them. That’s all we got planned though.”

[Glimmerglass]

And thankfully for me a big bullet dodged: per this late Wed eve tweet

ITHA and Arlington Park sign contract for 2012 race meet. AP should get Oaks and Derby simulcast, but 1st two cards still hurt.

Flashback to the situation yesterday … as the Chicago Tribune reported and was being cited by the local tv stations:

Unless there is a sudden thaw in the icy contract negotiations between Arlington Park and the Illinois Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association, horseplayers won’t be able to bet on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Illinois racetracks and off-track betting parlors.

Showing its solidarity with the ITHA, the Kentucky Benevolent and Protective Association has withdrawn its approval for Churchill Downs to send its races to Illinois, citing the absence of a 2012 contract at Arlington as the reason.

That would’ve been rather bad with this year in particular.

[Glimmerglass]

Today’s Wall Street Journal (THU 5-3-12) has a couple of interesting bits:

This graphic shows the 20 Derby horses (the AE is excluded) with the return thus far in their careers

The data factors in “training costs for all horses were based upon a consensus monthly estimate from thoroughbred experts; for homebreds the sire’s stud fee was substituted for the horse’s purchase price”

#1 Hansen @ $1,500,000
#20 Went the Day Well @ ($620,000) - the Team Valor purchase @ $850,000 has yet to pay off

In fact the only other money losing horse (aside from Went the Day Well) is Calvin Borel’s mount Take Charge Indy - the connections are still ($259,000) in the hole.

Additionally the Journal asks “What’s In a name?” With Picking a Winner

Graphic here breaking out types and success

Different types of name and Derby win success, Examples

Religious (this year its Rousing Sermon) 1%
Occupation based names (this year that would be Gemologist) 2%
War Themed horses (this year Liaison) 9%
Most successful of all - Based upon a name (this year Hansen) 23%

One glaring omission this year: horses with light, sun or color-themed names. Those have won 11% of the Derbies.

[Glimmerglass]

An interesting read from Bill Finley (ESPN) - Dumb money a plus for handicappers

In 2009, Mine That Bird looked like he couldn’t have won the race with a rocket tied to his back. He had failed to win two ungraded prep races coming in and finished last a year earlier in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was sent off at 50-1, when most handicappers thought his chances of winning were non-existent.

Yet, somehow he managed not to only win but to demolish the field. Three years later, the effect of that win will still be felt. The players who bet one race a year – and maybe even some semi-serious handicappers – are still looking for the next Mine That Bird, and their wagering dollars keep coming in on the Optimizers of the world. Someone could enter a billy goat and it would be 48-1.

That’s good news for serious players, at least those that have concluded that the Mine That Bird win was a once-in-the-history-of-the-world fluke. The odds on serious contenders such as Bodemeister and Union Rags will be inflated by at least two points because of the rush to play hopeless long shots.

So he presents a chart of the 20-horses this year and the odds they should be at and his guess at what they will go off at

Bill was particularly tough on the DWL trained Optimizer: His chances of victory are probably in the 1-in-200 or -300 neighborhood. And come post time for the Derby, he will likely be about 40-1.

[Glimmerglass]

Chef Bobby Flay’s tweet this morning

My Derby pick… GEMOLOGIST! Tiznow breaks through.

[Glimmerglass]

For the UK folks …

The Kentucky Derby, which takes place at 11.24 UK time on Saturday, will be shown live in a special programme on Racing UK. Coverage from NBC in the States will be augmented by studio analysis from expert trio Angus McNae, James Willoughby and Dave Gutfreund.

[Glimmerglass]

Quip of the day from Take Charge Indy’s owner Chuck Sandford

“A bad jockey can’t follow instructions and a good jockey doesn’t need any,” Chuck Sandford said. “And guess what? Calvin is a pretty good jockey.”

Video from this morning (THU) of Take Charge Indy getting a bath at CD

For the current CD meet started Sat 4/28 (and through the end of Wed) - Calvin is #4 with earnings with 17-mounts 4-1-1, putting his rides on the board just 35%.

By comparison Julien Leparoux (who will end riding at CD after this weekend) currently is in first place with earnings and from 17-mounts also has taken a record of 6-1-4 which means 65% of his rides hit the board.

Leave it CNN to cite the dumbest remark for this year’s Derby: "Is this [Union Rags] the new Barbaro?. Come on, why go there? Why?

[Mali]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6291966]
Leave it CNN to cite the dumbest remark for this year’s Derby: "Is this [Union Rags] the new Barbaro?. Come on, why go there? Why?[/QUOTE]

Lord only knows what the NBC coverage is going to be like. We’ll probably hear Barbaro’s name more times than any of the actual Derby runners! Ugh. Hopefully Union Rags can finally put Barbaro to rest, and give the racing world something else to focus on.

[Glimmerglass]

Mali - I really hope they don’t tread into that, but I’m sure some mention when they talk about Matz and UR will come up. I’d far prefer NBC to adopt something closer to the “Union Rags - 'A Love Story” video segment done which focuses on owner Mrs. Phyllis Mills Wyeth.

The small white with blue lettering Hansen rubber toy was just shown on HRTV. Cute. An article indicated the connections might also sell some for charity in addition to the thousands to be given away.

[Glimmerglass]

Video of Hansen at the track (1st time) this morning - his ranking behavior was noted by several. Mike Maker was talking with HRTV later and said tomorrow morning he’ll be different. It’s simply that he was looking around and tomorrow it will be more familiar.

DRF comment on his morning effort:

Hansen did all his training in the relative anonymity of the Trackside Training Center, as he did before his victory in the BC Juvenile. But unlike his energetic yet well controlled gallops prior to that race, his first visit to the strip here Thursday was anything but that as he proved rank, aggressive, and hard to handle during just a routine gallop. That type of behavior would certainly not enhance whatever chance he might have of staying 1 1/4 miles.

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Ruh roh. From DRF, regarding Hansen’s rank behavior (assume this was from the Thursday 3 May work?):

Unlike his energetic but controlled and eye-catching gallops in the days leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, Hansen was overly aggressive this morning, rank to the point he needed the outrider’s assistance to be pulled up.

Sorry but I don’t see any positive spin that can be placed on this.

[dreamswept]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6290975]
re: Hansen and his 3,000 Hansen toys to give away

Nada on the handing out …[/QUOTE]

Well fine, if he wants to chuck one little rubber white horse at me, he can. I’ll be as close to the walking ring/saddling paddock rail as i can get I’d just worry about them getting thrown around the paddock. It’d be a madhouse enough down there.

[Glimmerglass]

Andrew Beyer’s field analysis of each horse (Washington Post)

Ed Fountain/NY Post (pdf) Guide to the entire field - always a nifty chart

[keepthelegend]

[QUOTE=Flashy Gray VA;6293508]
Ruh roh. From DRF, regarding Hansen’s rank behavior (assume this was from the Thursday 3 May work?):

Sorry but I don’t see any positive spin that can be placed on this.[/QUOTE]

Reminds me of Smarty Jones, who couldn’t even gallop without his pony and his head tied to the ground!