On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

[Glimmerglass]

Regarding the Derby Pool (Churchill Down’s) you can do WIN and Exacta … last year on the day of the Derby the $2 exacta payout for Animal Kingdom over Nehro (16-19) was $329.80.

Where as both were “named” horses only in Pool #3 (as picks 1-12, respectively: Animal Kingdom over runner-up Nehro) and yielded for $2 a payout of $3,074.60. In Pool 1 and 2 Animal Kingdom was lumped into the “field” as he was not named as an individual interest until the 3rd pool. The Pool 1 payoff for the 24-13 combination was $230 for $2, and the Pool 2 payoff for the 24-12 combination was $338.20.

Anyhow here for the First Pool opening up FRI (2/10/12) and closing Sunday 2/12, the named horses and opening odds for the win:

Horse __ CD M/L

1. Algorithms __ 8-1
2. Alpha __ 20-1
3. Battle Hardened __ 30-1
4. Creative Cause __ 20-1
5. Discreet Dancer __ 15-1
6. Dullahan __ 20-1
7. El Padrino __ 20-1
8. Empire Way __ 50-1
9. Ever So Lucky __ 20-1

10. Fed Biz  __  	20-1
    

11. Gemologist  __  	20-1
    

12. Hansen  __  	12-1
    

13. I’ll Have Another  __  	20-1
    

14. Junebugred  __  	50-1
    

15. Liaison  __  	20-1
    

16. Longview Drive  __  	50-1
    

17. Midnight Transfer  __  	50-1
    

18. Mr. Bowling  __  	50-1
    

19. Out of Bounds  __  	20-1
    

20. Rousing Sermon  __  	30-1
    

21. Sabercat  __  	30-1
    

22. Take Charge Indy  __  	30-1
    

23. Union Rags  __  	10-1
    

24. Mutuel field (all others)  __  	9-5
    

The real-time odds will be available here:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/future-wager

[Glimmerglass]

BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin’s “Derby Dozen” for Feb 6th - abridged

1. Creative Cause

2. Union Rags
3. Algorithms
4. El Padrino
5. Sabercat
6. Out of Bounds
7. I’ll Have Another
8. Gemologist
9. Hansen
10. Alpha
11. Discreet Dancer
12. Dullahan

In regards to Dullahan, trained by Dale Romans, he’s not doing great physically at the moment. The DRF reports he is “fighting illness” although was only expected to start twice before the Derby. Not sure why everyone is so high on this guy being a top 20 prospect.

Dullahan has not worked in nearly a month, with his last official work an easy five furlongs in 1:01.40 at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14. Dullahan has not started since finishing a late-running fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

“He’s got a little bit of a cough, and we had to skip a couple of week’s breezes,” said Romans. “We had gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves with him anyway, so it shouldn’t be a big problem. We still have plenty of time. He’s still on track for the Palm Beach if we don’t encounter any other issues.”

He’ll start in the Palm Beach (on turf) March 11th at 1 1/8 then the Blue Grass Stakes. While Paddy O’Prado did the same route I’m a wee bit doubtful its the winning formula.

[Glimmerglass]

The field drawn for the $150k Grade 3 Hutcheson Stakes (Race 8) Sat Feb 11th

PP. Horse. Jockey. Weight

1. Tarpy’s Goal# … J Castellano __ 116-lbs
2. Wildcat Creek# … A Serpa __ 116-lbs
3. Thunder Moccasin … J R Velazquez __ 116-lbs
4. Quick Wit … R A Dominguez __ 116-lbs
5. Il Villano# … E Trujillo __ 118-lbs
6. Ever So Lucky … J R Leparoux __ 116-lbs

not Triple Crown nominated

It should be a rout by Ever So Lucky. Should be

[Glimmerglass]

Jonathan Sheppard’s remarks on Ever So Lucky reaffirm, again, that I for one can’t tell if he’s playing one heck of a poker face so to speak with his comments - or not

Sheppard’s confidence in Ever So Lucky’s preparedness for the Hutcheson was shaken slightly by a five-furlong workout in 1:01.75 over a sloppy track Monday morning.

“It was too slow. I think the horse needed one more good work,” he said. “I mean, it was better than nothing, but it didn’t prove much.”

Sheppard raised the possibility that he could scratch Ever So Lucky from the Hutcheson. In the event that Ever So Lucky does not run, his 2012 debut could be delayed by a month.

“I might just wait for the Swale Stakes – same distance, same purse. Most of the other graded stakes are all too long. I don’t particularly want to bring him back at a longer distance,” Sheppard said. “But we’ll see.”

[Glimmerglass]

If anyone wants the past performances for the 23-named candidates for the First Derby Pool: here you go (pdf)

Additionally the Daily Racing Form has Top 20 Derby contenders (2/8/12) list

I’m still a bit surprised that Liaison (#7) and Dullahan (#12) are so highly ranked with as much information being out there. Their # 1 pick: Union Rags.

[Glimmerglass]

Sheppard raised the possibility that he could scratch Ever So Lucky from the Hutcheson. In the event that Ever So Lucky does not run, his 2012 debut could be delayed by a month.

That was Wednesday … and he indeed was scratched due to “week’s worth of bad weather and a wet track”.

[Sheppard said]“Right now his legs are great but I had a long discussion with Mr. Strawbridge yesterday and we decided under the circumstances that we just didn’t want to take a chance.”

Sheppard said waiting for the Grade 2 Swale on March 10 would be one option for Ever So Lucky’s return.

“He’s got plenty of conditions left too so we’re just going to keep an open mind,” said Sheppard.

Ever So Lucky is an individual entry in this weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager. After Friday’s first day of betting, he was 79-1.

[Glimmerglass]

The current Kentucky Derby Pool 1 (closes Sunday at 5pm EST) odds link:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/future-wager/live-odds

Bob Baffert trained Fed Biz at 31-1 has gone up from the opening at 20-1. While nominated for the Derby, he has yet to run in a graded race and accumulate a nickle towards getting in the race.

Yet this interview from Santa Anita following his win in a $58,000 allowance on Feb 9th has people on the West Coast buzzing. Jockey Rafael Bejarano seemingly makes the remark “this is my Derby horse” although was mum when pressed on this.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6131111]
The field drawn for the $150k Grade 3 Hutcheson Stakes (Race 8) Sat Feb 11th[/QUOTE]

It’s taken at 1-5 odds by Thunder Moccasin with plenty of ease and Johnny Velazquez up. With it Todd Pletcher get’s his 3,002nd win.

[Glimmerglass]

Rather fascinating - the next race for Hansen isn’t there in Florida but rather he’ll ship up to New York: Grade 3 $400k,000 Gotham Stakes - March 3rd. Also note his health issue:

On the day after Hansen suffered his first career loss to Algorithms in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Jan. 29, trainer Mike Maker said Hansen would point to the Fountain of Youth. But Maker said Hansen got sick out of the race, which forced him to stay in the barn a couple of extra days more than he normally would have coming out of a race. Thus, Maker believes the extra week to the Gotham will benefit Hansen.

“We felt he would need a little extra time,” Maker said by phone from Florida. “That works out well.”

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

True to form, I am so appreciative of Mr. Sheppard’s patience with Ever So Lucky.

Been out running errands in the snow and frigid temps all day and am now looking forward to an cozy afternoon indoors watching the rest of the card from Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Glimmer, as always thank you for your informative posts!

[Glimmerglass]

This decision may cast some light on how good (or overrated) one horse may be …

If a jockey has the chance to opt for either Union Rags or Algorithms in the upcoming Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (2/26) and goes not with the generally listed #1 horse in the top 10 lists, what does that say?

Javier Castellano and his agent, Matt Muzikar, have chosen to ride Algorithms, not Union Rags, in the Fountain of Youth. The opportunity to ride Union Rags in that race will now go to Julien Leparoux.

Castellano/Muzikar: "Both of us have the utmost respect for both Michael Matz and Mrs. Wyeth. They are both very classy people, and we wish all the connections of Union Rags the best.”

Tweet from Julien Sun 2/12

I’m so excited about the news, can’t wait to ride Union rags

Another runner, cited before, could be interesting: Stonestreet Stables/George Bolton’s Spring Hill Farm (bred by and named for the late Ned Evans farm in Casanova, VA) won his 2nd career start on Sat 2/11 at Gulfstream. That win also gave Todd Pletcher his 3,000th career win. Spring Hill Farm led a preliminary allowance field of three year olds for the entire mile on a sealed wet track.

Spring Hill Farm is Triple Crown nominated.

Zayat Stables owned, Bodemeister, and named for Bob Baffert’s son Bode (who is named after the downhill skiier Bode Miller) won his maiden impressively at Santa Anita Sat (2/11) with this run (video) in the 3rd. The colt is Triple Crown nominated as well.

[jennywho]

Caught an interview with Baffert on TVG today, said he would try to find one more allowance for Bodemeister, but might have to “cram” a little to get him to the first Saturday in May.

[Glimmerglass]

Julien Leparoux wasted no time in getting seat time on Union Rags - Monday (2/13) he put in a work on the horse:

On a very chilly Monday morning at Palm Meadows. Union Rags, with his new rider Julien Leparoux aboard, worked an easy five-eighths in 1:03.08, according to track clocker Bryan Walls, much to the delight of trainer Michael Matz.

Union Rags posted splits of 38.3 and 51.1 seconds while going in hand and galloped out six furlongs in 1:15.40 under Leparoux, who was aboard the Grade 1 winner for the first time on Monday. Union Rags worked in company with stablemate Rihanna.

Julien tweeted: “Very happy I’ve got to know Union rags this morning. Breeze went good”

As an aside - per Julien’s tweets he is now engaged as of today Shea Mitchell – she is theater singer/dancer from So. Cal and has been traveling with Julien on many of his cross country rides. I suspect she’ll be with him at Golden Gate Fields this Saturday for a very rare appearance. Congrats to them both!

Julien will be aboard Daddy Nose Best for trainer Steve Asmussen in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields on Saturday.

[Glimmerglass]

Regarding Baffert-trainee Bodemeister it appears his next run will be in a yet-to-be-picked stakes appearance in March. Does that mean he’s not considered a potential for the Kentucky Derby?

To have any chance of gaining a spot in the Kentucky Derby, Bodemeister will need significant graded stakes earnings, the tiebreaker used if the race oversubscribes. Gaining such earnings for Bodemeister is not a concern for Baffert.

“If he runs back like he did, I don’t think it will be a problem,” he said.

Bodemeister was bred in Berryville, Virginia at Audley Farm, owned by Hubertus Liebrecht.

[Glimmerglass]

Rather fascinating as I swear I’ve never seen this before with a graded race:

Oaklawn Park may split this year’s Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes into 2 separate but equal races both held on President’s Day (Monday Feb 20th)

The shippers, along with local stakes winner Junebugred, who breezed a bullet half-mile Tuesday, top a list of 21 probables for the one-mile Southwest, which has a good chance of being split into two divisions.

If it is, each division will be a Grade 3, and each will have a purse of $250,000, said David Longinotti, the assistant general manager for racing at Oaklawn.

In case you were wondering - Junebugred, winner of the $100,000 Smarty Jones back on 1/16, is named for a fishing lure that the owner’s [Alex and JoAnn Lieblong] son, Jason, used to win a fishing tournament. They paid $200k for him at the Keeneland September yearling auction in 2010.

[frugalannie]

Glimmerglass, you are truly an amazing fountain of knowledge!

[jennywho]

Wow, would be interesting if Oaklawn does split the race.

I LOVE this thread, no name calling, nitpicking, etc. Just facts, so refreshing compared to some other racing boards. Thanks Glimmerglass for your hard work.

Cheering for Junebugred as a senimental favorite.

[Toadie_s_mom]

Anyone “of note” running this weekend? I need to update my fantasy stable.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Toadie’s mom;6144498]
Anyone “of note” running this weekend? I need to update my fantasy stable.[/QUOTE]

2/18 Saturday: El Camino Real (G3) at Golden Gate Fields which most likely will be a full house (the starting gates, not sadly the race track grandstand). 1 1/8-mi on synthetic.

2/19 Sunday: San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita @ 7-furlongs

2/20 Monday (President’s Day): Southwest Stakes (G3) @ 1-mile at Oaklawn with a good chance that this will actually be two editions of the race. So maybe 20 contenders running in 2 10-horse fields.

Take a look at this analytical listing of “Worth Watching” contenders from The Downey Profile if you’re looking to expand your fantasy stable

In regards to the Southwest Stakes being “split” I said I’ve never heard of it happening before … here is where it has happened:

Travers Manley of Churchill Downs gave some historical perspective in a tweet.

According to Manley, this would be third time for the Southwest Stakes to be run in divisions, but it’d [sic] be the first time since it last became a graded stakes race; that the last graded stakes to be split into divisions was in 2009 at Keeneland; and that the last graded 3-year-old Kentucky Derby prep race to be split up was the 1993 Fountain of Youth.

According to our research, the Southwest was last run in divisions in 2002, when Private Emblem and Paloma Parilla won the respective races. The only other time it happened was 1972.

Actually for the record the Fountain of Youth Stakes has been run as a split: 1947, 1953, 1983, 1986 and 1993

So in 1993 the FOY race (A) was won by Duc d’Sligovil and (B) won by Storm Tower; both races had 9-runners. It will be interesting to see if the Southwest Stakes is run as a split this year. Recent past winners: Archarcharch, Lawyer Ron, Smarty Jones, Denis of Cork, and Old Fashioned.

Kentucky Derby joins with three new sponsors

Under the new partnership agreements, Moët & Chandon Champagne, one of the world’s most iconic brands, will introduce the all new “Moët & Chandon Toast to the Kentucky Derby” which will take place during the festivities preceding the running of the race.

BLUE04, the first and completely natural oxygenated enhanced water, will infuse a creative theme into the Kentucky Derby “Blue Room” (formerly known as the “Green Room”)

Oklahoma-based SandRidge Energy is the presenting sponsor of the celebratory “Kentucky Derby Winner’s Party” immediately following the race. This invitation only event is the finale of the historic race day as the winning owner, trainer, jockey and government officials gather to toast another successful running of the Kentucky Derby.

I don’t know anything about the latter two companies, but Moet is a big score. LVMH Moët Hennessy owns the brand (I’ve met the top folks a few times at their other Champagne offering - Veuve Clicquot Ponsardin) and they do not whatsoever partner with an event unless it will yield results.

[Toadie_s_mom]

Thanks Glimmerglass! I wonder if John Oxley (owner and Tulsa oilman) has anything to do with SandRidge?