Agree 100%. I go to The Bloodhorse for most stakes replays - they post them reasonably soon after the race.
The only exception being the overseas races. I usually google “Winx” under ‘news’ to hopefully find her race replays.
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Justify is a gorgeous talented horse. But he lacks the experience necessary to survive the 20 horse charge that comes out of the gate.
Perhaps his trainer is working him with 3 - 4 other horses so he learns to get dirt in his face and squeezed at the start.
But, if he survives the Derby, he should be good to go for the Preakness and Belmont.
I keep trying to decide if this is a Big Brown situation with Justify. I don’t think it is yet. I think his challengers are too consistent, too good. Plus, he didn’t make it look that easy getting by Bolt D’Oro, who had an excuse.
Of course, I said inexperience would get the best of Big Brown, too. So… 
I’m not on the Justify bandwagon just yet either. He’s too inexperienced and untested. Maybe he is a freak, the next superhorse, but it’s just too early to tell. And with plenty of free-wheeling, front running types in the race, including a speed demon like Promises Fulfilled, no one is going to get an easy, uncontested lead. I think the curse of Apollo lives on for another year.
I like Mendelssohn, but fear he will have the same issue, getting caught up in a much too fast pace. Hopefully he can rate, because anyone that tries to go with Promises Fulfilled is going to be toast.
I think this race is setting up for a strong closer like Audible. I’m not sure who the other closers are, but of course, traffic always plays a part in those trying to come from behind
I posted a picture on FB that I took of Magnum Moon in the paddock at Oaklawn. I said, “He is a looker.”
A non-horsey FB friend commented, “The horse or the man?”
I had to confess, I hadn’t even noticed the man. :lol: He isn’t half bad, but I’d still rather look at the horse. 
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Being from Arkansas I tend to go for the winner of the Arkansas Derby. So it’s Magnum Moon for me!
I’m still going to wait for the post positions to come out. I love Justify, he is beautiful. But I am not on his bandwagon that he’s the best 3 y/o. What a great field this year!!! I think he will have his challenges on May 5. I still really like Mendelssohn but its really any body’s race this year.
It looks like Gronkowski might not be coming. https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/gronkowskis-derby-hopes-in-doubt-after-minor-setback/
Quip is out, too, he will be pointed towards the Preakness instead.
That means Combatant is in. If Gronkowski drops out, Instilled Regard gets in.
The BloodHorse article about Flameaway made me laugh. Apparently he had an interesting growth pattern…
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/227117/flameaway-a-pinhooking-success-for-partnership
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Gronkowski is out (infection).
Yep, Quip is out. Wonder how much of Quip being out is what the connections are saying and how much is that many of Quip’s owners also own Justify 
I’m having a hard time deciding between Mendelssohn and Audible. Mendelssohn has literally been all over the world and after his third start, seems to run his race no matter what or where. Mendelssohn’s dam is the dam of Audible’s sire. How’s that for reality tv drama? And his sister is Beholder, who we all love.
For me at this point waiting for PPs and track condition.
I have some favorites but how they draw might change my mind
Anyone see Lone Sailor’s recent works? Horse is a machine. He is beautiful.
Oaks draw was today…
Monomoy Girl drew outside (PP14) and is the morning line favorite (2/1). Midnight Bisou is PP10 at 5/2.
Monomoy Girl would certainly get a look by me, she’s raced well in her last few finishes.
I’m still a bit on the sentimental side going for Rayya (12/1) based on her second place finish to Mendelssohn in Dubai and the very sentimental Heavenhasmynikki at 50/1
It’s a shame about Monomoy Girl’s post position. Hopefully it won’t impact her too much.
Brad Cox had terrible luck at the draw. #1 post for his Sassy Sienna and then the outside for Monomoy Girl.
After PP draw; my picks are Good Magic and Lone Sailor. Both great PP and both great odds
I was very bummed to see Free Drop Billy get PP 2. horse has some gas pedal though so he may be able to get out of the crowd.
I think PP7 for Justify is a good spot for him. Gives him a chance to break in front and stay out of the mess going into the clubhouse turn.
Didn’t like the aux gate for Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy. Sounds like Pletcher tried to blow off the aux gate but I’m not buying it.
Maybe a good spot for Good Magic haven’t made up my mind on him or Mendelssohn. Might be a bit too far outside for Mendelssohn.
Bolt is still not doing a thing for me
This is the most challenging time I’ve had handicapping the derby. I don’t have a good angle on a single horse. It’s Justify’s race to lose, but I think lack of experience and questions about his running style and how he may respond to challenge or adversity makes it hard for me to get too high on him.
It’s a dead heat between a number of the others.
Mendelssohn was certainly impressive in his last start, we know he can ship and handle traffic, but why does Ryan Moore chase him out of the gate every start? That’s scary to think about from PP 14. It’s also hard to get excited about a horse currently sitting in quarantine, although he has proven he can handle it.
Audible has been on the improve, but can he get the distance? Big question. The end of his Florida Derby left me with distance questions.
Vino Rosso showed a lot of grit in the Wood. But Flameaway has beaten him twice. Johnny V. is staying on him as opposed to the others he could be riding… was that his choice?
Magnum Moon is undefeated. But who did he beat? He looks like a derby winner doing it, but you still have inexperience working against him. Plus, he has drifted out hard at the wire in every race. They acted like it was a fluke in the Arkansas Derby… uh no. That’s annoying and concerning for a big field.
I dont know what to think about Good Magic’s prospects in the derby. One minute I’m high on him, the next I’m not. I do think good position aided him in the BC, but I did like how he fought back in the BG.
Bolt d’Oro shows up every time. He’s proven class and experience. But he hasn’t been able to win. Maybe that experience will serve him well on Saturday if others falter.
The rest of the field I’d file under “traffic.” Although this is such a screwy year that I could see all the favorites missing the distance and a long shot taking over. Which long shot? Your guess is as good as mine.
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I am rather stunned that they waited to fly Mendelssohn into Churchill until Monday. The horse will barely get a taste of the atmosphere and track by the time its race day. I think this tactic led to Thunder Snow going rodeo at the start last year. I love Mendelssohn but I would love him a lot more for Derby day if they decided to ship him in April 23rd and gave him some time to settle in. Post wont help him much either. I hope he proves me wrong
