PanAms

[Rackonteur]

OK, th![](s is gonna date me, but when I saw the title of this thread these are the PanAms I pictured –

[IMG]https://i.pinimg.com/originals/fc/43/46/fc43463db18cbb5bcdc41b56fd453d0d.jpg)

[canuckeventer]

EC just announced https://www.equestrian.ca/news/eqGRoCddBTXSgPpPm/canadian-equestrian-team-nominated-for
🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

[vineyridge]

BTW, as far as I can tell from the FEI’s Pan-Am technical handbook, the new Olympic Rules on Eventing will not apply. Any substitutions can only be made no less than 2 hours before the start of dressage.

[Jealoushe]

@canuckeventer

EC just announced https://www.equestrian.ca/news/eqGRoCddBTXSgPpPm/canadian-equestrian-team-nominated-for
🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

Good luck to the Canadians, they will need to bring their A game!

[JenJ]

@Jealoushe

Good luck to the Canadians, they will need to bring their A game!

I think Karl is a solid choice
I am not familiar with Colleen’s horse, but Colleen has proven herself as a horse person and rider, keeping her top horse competitive and sound at the top level for 5 or 6 years, so I am happy to bet on her
Pavarotti makes me a bit sad, he has given so much for so many years, and was scary at WEG. I would have preferred to see JP on Bogue Sound - his dressage may not be the best, but they would be a good bet to finish on dressage score.
Dana Cooke (I believe) has had some inconsistent results.

[Backstage]

@JenJ

I think Karl is a solid choice
I am not familiar with Colleen’s horse, but Colleen has proven herself as a horse person and rider, keeping her top horse competitive and sound at the top level for 5 or 6 years, so I am happy to bet on her
Pavarotti makes me a bit sad, he has given so much for so many years, and was scary at WEG. I would have preferred to see JP on Bogue Sound - his dressage may not be the best, but they would be a good bet to finish on dressage score.
Dana Cooke (I believe) has had some inconsistent results.

The good news is that Pavarotti’s record at the old 2*/new 3* level is quite good. Finished on a 47.1 last fall at Fairhill with 16.3 time in the 3* (now 4*), and should be able to knock off a number of those time penalties at the 2* (now 3*) level. Basically, he does better when he can run slower, and doesn’t need to tap into that exuberant jump. He had no time faults in 2015 at the Pan Ams and finished on his dressage score (42.1). That’s a “old money” score wise, so would be about a 25 now (I believe). He scored a 29.1 at Bromont this spring in dressage (then added some time to his score).

Pavarotti has his faults, but he is basically Canada’s only shot at putting together a competitive team. Basically, if things go well, he should be good for a sub-30 score at the new 3* level. Naming him isn’t without risk - soundness-wise and exuberance-wise, but for “math reasons” naming someone like Bogue Sound instead doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Colleen FE Golden Eye only has one CCI3-L* (new star system) on his record, and had a finishing score of 34.7. He finished a CCI3*-S on a 33.4 earlier this year. He had some trouble xc at Jersey Fresh, but we can say that best case scenario, we are looking at something low to mid 30s. Let’s call it a 33.

Then we have Karl Slezak. In the interest of time, I won’t get into details but he’s probably a mid-30s score if all goes well. Maybe low 30s as the dressage score seems to have improved since he last competed at the now 3* level. That said, he may pick up some time but does SJ well. Let’s say he’s good for a 33 if all goes well.

Dana Cooke and Mississippi also seem to be capable of something in that range. Finished on a 33.6 at the old 2* level at Bromont last year. That is their only long format result, but they finished on a 30 at the New Jersey new 3* CCI-S this spring. For simplicity, let’s say a 33 too.

If 3/4 riders give performances that are in the good side of their historical performance, we could be looking at a combined score in the 93-96 range.

Let’s take a look at our main competition - the US.

Boyd and Tsetserleg finished KY on a 27.9. If all goes well, they should be able to improve that score at the Pan Ams. We could be looking at a 25 or better finishing score.

Doug and Star Witness should be around a 30.

Tamra and Fleeceworks Royal should also be good for a 30, possibly high 20s if all goes well.

Lynn and RF Cool Play could be in the 25-30 range, but a 25 is definitely possible.

Let’s we take a 25 and then 2 30s for a total of 85.

Basically under this scenario, Canada is 8-10 pts off the pace. But if 3 Canadian have a really good day, and 2 Americans have a bad (but not disastrous) day, the gap starts to narrow. And as we know in eventing, lots of interesting things can happen. Basically, Canada is the underdog but its still a possibility. If you swap out Pavarotti for Bogue Sound, you would need the US to have a considerably worse day. Bogue Sound (much as I like him) at the new 3* level is probably finishes 10 points higher than Pavarotti.

If we were talking OG or WEG, Bogue Sound would be my choice as well. The math is a bit different, as the risk/reward of ending Pavarotti wouldn’t make sense to me.

[Jealoushe]

The only thing about 2015 Pan Ams was Rotti didn’t have to travel. He will have a good journey here and not sure if his age is catching up with him or they have been taking it the last year. I would have rather seen Jollybo but I don’t think JP will ever be left off a team after that law suit lol

[Jealoushe]

Just reading Horse Sport Magazine here and it says the XC course designer is actually Jose Ortelli from Argentina.

There will be 2 jumps in the main area and 3 water complexes.

[Backstage]

@Jealoushe

The only thing about 2015 Pan Ams was Rotti didn’t have to travel. He will have a good journey here and not sure if his age is catching up with him or they have been taking it the last year. I would have rather seen Jollybo but I don’t think JP will ever be left off a team after that law suit lol

I don’t disagree that its a concern. But your proposed alternative, Jollybo, has her weaknesses - even at the new 3* level, she isn’t likely to lay down the type of score that will allow the CAN Team to challenge if there is a crack in the US Team performance. End of the day, I can see why the selectors are willing to take a chance on Pavarotti given that its just a 3*. 4/5* would be a whole other type of discussion in my view.

[brindille]

@Backstage

The good news is that Pavarotti’s record at the old 2*/new 3* level is quite good. Finished on a 47.1 last fall at Fairhill with 16.3 time in the 3* (now 4*), and should be able to knock off a number of those time penalties at the 2* (now 3*) level. Basically, he does better when he can run slower, and doesn’t need to tap into that exuberant jump. He had no time faults in 2015 at the Pan Ams and finished on his dressage score (42.1). That’s a “old money” score wise, so would be about a 25 now (I believe). He scored a 29.1 at Bromont this spring in dressage (then added some time to his score).

(…)
Basically under this scenario, Canada is 8-10 pts off the pace. But if 3 Canadian have a really good day, and 2 Americans have a bad (but not disastrous) day, the gap starts to narrow. And as we know in eventing, lots of interesting things can happen. Basically, Canada is the underdog but its still a possibility. If you swap out Pavarotti for Bogue Sound, you would need the US to have a considerably worse day. Bogue Sound (much as I like him) at the new 3* level is probably finishes 10 points higher than Pavarotti.

If we were talking OG or WEG, Bogue Sound would be my choice as well. The math is a bit different, as the risk/reward of ending Pavarotti wouldn’t make sense to me.

Wow! Thank you for this amazingly thorough analysis! I will be rooting for the under dog!

[canuckeventer]

@Backstage

The good news is that Pavarotti’s record at the old 2*/new 3* level is quite good. Finished on a 47.1 last fall at Fairhill with 16.3 time in the 3* (now 4*), and should be able to knock off a number of those time penalties at the 2* (now 3*) level. Basically, he does better when he can run slower, and doesn’t need to tap into that exuberant jump. He had no time faults in 2015 at the Pan Ams and finished on his dressage score (42.1). That’s a “old money” score wise, so would be about a 25 now (I believe). He scored a 29.1 at Bromont this spring in dressage (then added some time to his score).

Pavarotti has his faults, but he is basically Canada’s only shot at putting together a competitive team. Basically, if things go well, he should be good for a sub-30 score at the new 3* level. Naming him isn’t without risk - soundness-wise and exuberance-wise, but for “math reasons” naming someone like Bogue Sound instead doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Colleen FE Golden Eye only has one CCI3-L* (new star system) on his record, and had a finishing score of 34.7. He finished a CCI3*-S on a 33.4 earlier this year. He had some trouble xc at Jersey Fresh, but we can say that best case scenario, we are looking at something low to mid 30s. Let’s call it a 33.

Then we have Karl Slezak. In the interest of time, I won’t get into details but he’s probably a mid-30s score if all goes well. Maybe low 30s as the dressage score seems to have improved since he last competed at the now 3* level. That said, he may pick up some time but does SJ well. Let’s say he’s good for a 33 if all goes well.

Dana Cooke and Mississippi also seem to be capable of something in that range. Finished on a 33.6 at the old 2* level at Bromont last year. That is their only long format result, but they finished on a 30 at the New Jersey new 3* CCI-S this spring. For simplicity, let’s say a 33 too.

If 3/4 riders give performances that are in the good side of their historical performance, we could be looking at a combined score in the 93-96 range.

Let’s take a look at our main competition - the US.

Boyd and Tsetserleg finished KY on a 27.9. If all goes well, they should be able to improve that score at the Pan Ams. We could be looking at a 25 or better finishing score.

Doug and Star Witness should be around a 30.

Tamra and Fleeceworks Royal should also be good for a 30, possibly high 20s if all goes well.

Lynn and RF Cool Play could be in the 25-30 range, but a 25 is definitely possible.

Let’s we take a 25 and then 2 30s for a total of 85.

Basically under this scenario, Canada is 8-10 pts off the pace. But if 3 Canadian have a really good day, and 2 Americans have a bad (but not disastrous) day, the gap starts to narrow. And as we know in eventing, lots of interesting things can happen. Basically, Canada is the underdog but its still a possibility. If you swap out Pavarotti for Bogue Sound, you would need the US to have a considerably worse day. Bogue Sound (much as I like him) at the new 3* level is probably finishes 10 points higher than Pavarotti.

If we were talking OG or WEG, Bogue Sound would be my choice as well. The math is a bit different, as the risk/reward of ending Pavarotti wouldn’t make sense to me.

Thanks for your breakdown, quite comprehensive. I for one, feel that the selectors have made some great choices including reserves. Unlike the WEGS, the team is not made up of “last man standing” riders. I do believe they also use the stats from Equi-ratings, as do other countries.
I just want to correct a few stats. Dana has actually completed 2 long formats (2017 CCI 2* Ocala) placing 5th/top Canadian and 2018 Bromont CCI 2* placing 3rd/top Canadian, and I believe, less than 1 point behind 1st place; 2nd at 2019 Chathills CCI 3*-S, and 1st at 2019 Jersey Fresh CCI 3*S.

[RacetrackReject]

Rory out with a minor injury, Mai Baum in.

[Larksmom]

Is there a final trial this weekend? Where is it?

[gottagrey]

@Larksmom

Is there a final trial this weekend? Where is it?

US team is running at Loch Moy this weekend. - Saturday is 3*, 2* and 1*

[Sharon]

Any word on streaming of the PanAms so we can watch? I was disappointed we could not watch the PanAms last time in Canada

[canuckeventer]

www./2019panamericangames.live is what I saw posted in Horse Sport Magazine (Canadian). Not sure if this address is totally accurate

[vagabondrider]

Here it is:

https://2019panamericangames.live/

[canuckeventer]

Thank you vagabondrider - I figured that it was missing a “/“ from the address. 😉. Hopefully we will all be able to follow. 🤞

[Larksmom]

Is anyone covering this event at Loch Moy? I see no coverage at EN or COTH.

[gottagrey]

@Larksmom

Is anyone covering this event at Loch Moy? I see no coverage at EN or COTH.

I don’t think so. I’ve not heard from the organizer that there’ll be any livestreaming. Ian Stark is the CD for it though.