I wouldn’t be so sure that the loss of school horses isn’t tied to a lack of reliable up/down instructors. Legitimate pros aren’t teaching up/down lessons- they don’t want to and, frankly, I don’t blame them. It’s an entirely different skill set than what most successful horse trainers possess (people skills lol).
Filling this position is notoriously hard. It (usually) requires at least one weekend day as well as weekday evenings for the after school crowd. It doesn’t pay well and it doesn’t have benefits, and it basically demands you dismiss all of your own personal show ambitions, because riding in the open divisions is effing hard and a lot of money to spend with zero hopes of a ribbon.
Who does everyone imagine is picking up this gig? It’s not a stay-at-home mom that used to ride and now just wants to be around horses, because the hours will rob her of time with her own kid. It’s not usually a full-time position, so it requires a second (often primary) job that has the pay and benefits it takes to “do horses”.
The two best beginner instructors I’ve ever known have taught for decades and decades and graduated… thousands? of riders into the Intermediate trainer’s ranks, and they both did/do dressage, where pro/am doesn’t matter. They were capable riders, but they were absolutely amateur riders.
But what if those ladies jumped fences instead of cantered circles? Would they have given up all of their competitive ambitions, sacrificed evenings and weekends, just for the pleasure of introducing snotty children and their overbearing parents to the joy of horses?
So half the time it’s college kids that cycle out every 6-18 months, or some random person who answered your ad and who you now have to trust with your entire rider pipeline + school horse string. You pray that they know what they’re doing and, more so, that they approach horsemanship from the same angle as you, and then you load up the trailer and head to a show for 2 weeks. And then they flake or whatever, and now you’ve got 6 school horses eating food and getting shod and not getting scheduled for any lessons. At that’s when school horses really start losing you money, and the whole thing becomes way more hassle and stress than it’s worth.
In summary (lol), I think movement in this direction is best for the sport. I also think the way they think they are going to track and police this is absolutely asinine.