Too narrow was my first thought and it looks like I was right 
It will at least give you an idea of where to go from here width wise. Hopefully it is stamped somewhere on that saddle.
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This photo is good, but include the bottom of the flap next time.
If the bottom of the flap is looser against his side than the top (by the gullet), then the saddle is likely too wide and has fallen down on his wither. If the bottom of the flap is tight against his side, and you have a “gap” near the gullet, then the saddle is likely too narrow and is perching on his wither.
From this photo alone, I cannot tell that it is too narrow or two wide. If there is enough clearance for his wither, it actually looks to me that it might fit just fine. if there is no wither clearance, it makes me think “too wide” as a too narrow saddle will perch and have more wither clearance.
I am not a fitter, but have been, as I am sure others have, through saddle fitting struggles.
@BlueDrifter You don’t think there is too much of a gap ( just below ) the withers where it is not making contact along the horse? To me it looks like it kind of " digs in" a bit behind the shoulder too, in one spot.
I am very much not an expert so I could be 100% wrong!
There is such a thing as too much space/withers clearance. This saddle looks tight to me. Add a pad and girth it up and I bet it’s a pinchy, tight fit.
Also, flaps are flexible and don’t have much to do with fitting. They’ll always touch all the way down on a horse with a deep barrel and well-sprung ribs, not so much on horses with diamond-shaped barrels, and slab-sided horses they’ll generally lie pretty flat unless the saddle was previously used on a horse with well-sprung ribs or extreme diamond shape.
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A saddle that is too wide wide will definitely dig in to the wither area, because it has fallen onto the withers and you have the saddle weight pressing down.
It could be that this saddle is too narrow, but I can’t tell from the photo without seeing how the flap lies along each side. I have seen some photos where the bottom of the flap is a good half-inch off the horse’s sides.
It is very hard to tell from photos, and for the most part, the most common error is a saddle that is too wide.
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Saddle flaps are flexible, but ungirthed, they tend to follow the line of the bars.
It is hard to tell from this photo. yes, there is a thing as too much space - sometimes that is due to mutton wither and sometimes due to perching and being too tight.
Being pinchy and a tight fit unfortunately are also the symptoms of a too wide saddle – especially if you just look at the area near the wither.
Most of this doesn’t make sense.
Bars? Stirrup bars or do you mean something else?
A mutton wither with too much space above it means the dang saddle is too narrow.
A saddle that is too wide will not be pinch and fit tight, it will fit squashed down into the top of the withers.
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I see what Blue Drifter is saying about wide saddles, but that is not the case here. If a saddle is too wide it will make contact right along the top of the panels and then flare away from the horse, so the weight is concentrated right along both sides of the spine. Looking at the saddle flaps is not a good way to determine this, because what the flaps are doing depends on how broken in the saddle is, and whether or not it is a monoflap, has blocks or rolls stiffening the flaps, etc.
Here is what I see. I’m not an expert, but the saddler I work with says I do better than average on finding suitable saddles online.
Red line of the tree point vs. estimated angle of the horse’s back behind the scapula shows the saddle is clearly too narrow. The saddle is up off the horse where the panels start so the weight is concentrated lower on the tree points.
On side view, the balance point (blue circle) is too far back because it is sitting pommel-high. This will put the rider in a chair seat as well as being uncomfortable for the horse. Red circle is closer to the center point of balance if the saddle was sitting correctly.
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Thank you @outerbanks77. I found that very helpful and I am glad I could recognize it on my own. I have been researching saddle fit articles and videos of late.
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Depending upon the make of the saddle, it can appear there is too much space between wither and pommel that is NOT due to being too narrow.
Bars is probably more of a western term, but since the OP came from that I thought it might be understood by all. I guess in an english saddle you would refer to it as tree points.
A saddle that is too wide will fall down and rest on the wither. If the saddle is heavy (western) it will definitely feel too tight and pinchy. If the saddle is lightweight, it will be too tight as soon as the rider is mounted. Which is why noting the angle of the tree points/bars against the horses’ side is important.
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No. Bars do not equal tree points.
And no, you’re not going to get too much space between wither and underside of pommel without the saddle being too narrow. It may also be totally the wrong shape, but it is always going to be too narrow.
Okay, Sacha, you win, you are right
Oh fflyingfruitbat’s sake, it’s not about winning, it’s about getting correct information out to people who have never learned about saddle fitting or done it (albeit briefly and against my will) so that people don’t make their horses uncomfortable or end up buying a saddle because the information they have is faulty.
A too wide saddle can often be made ok with plenty of padding, especially if the tree shape (rails for English or bars for western) and gullet shape are correct and the horse is expected to put muscle on to fill it out. A too narrow saddle will always cause discomfort or worse. It’s important stuff from a horse welfare POV.
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Honestly, thank you all for your help! After a ton of research, I found a Schleese JES Elite in a medium. I need to get shorter stirrups (I need 1-2 holes shorter than the shortest available hole). He’s moving out so nicely in it and I feel safe.
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Glad you found something…hopefully it works out in the long run. Wouldn’t hurt to have a professional take a look at it.
JES Elite is a great saddle for petite riders as the flaps are shorter than other brands/models.
Schleese trees can also be adjusted.
I am also petite and had a JES for a large pony a few years ago. I believe the saddle is discontinued now.
I plan to have a fitter out to check it and see if the flocking needs to be adjusted.
