So, what happens if we DON'T change?

[GraceLikeRain]

I anticipate that USEF will go the way of conformation dog showing.

You will see shows dominated by a handfully of independently wealthy AAs who can travel and trainers who have a seemingly impossible number of horses they are showing. The wealthy but works full time AA with 1-2 horses will be a bit of an anomaly. Politics will increase as a smaller number of trainers occupy a larger portion of the market. Working AAs will be further disenfranchised and less able to take the time off work to campaign a horse. Thus, they will work to make it possible for the trainer to campaign their horses. To make that possible for the trainer, trainers will have more working students. Working students will be from families where they can cover living expenses for “experiential learning” as middle class passionate riders take full time jobs because they cannot afford to be on the road 40 weeks a year with little to no pay. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we slowly saw an influx of Stallions and a movement away from geldings as wealthy owners approach it from more of a business model.

I could also see those wealthy owners who cannot travel bringing out AA horses at the A and B shows that are local and two day. This will further push out the “average AA” on a horse that may have been competitive in 2020. Essentially it will be a continued progression of the pieces already in place. Conformation shows are dying out. It is a graying sport where politics make it very hard for all but the most resilient amateurs to thrive. My crystal ball sees something similar.

[Darkwave]

My question to everyone is: where are the new riders coming from?

When I was growing up in the DC suburbs in the 1980s, there were plenty of riding schools, beginner riding programs, and summer camps with riding lessons included. Pretty much every kid I knew had taken a riding lesson or sat on a horse at some point. (granted, this was within the surburban bubble I grew up in, and was not the norm for all kids in the DC area). I came from a non-horsey family, and started in the sport by taking lessons at a barn 4 miles from my house that had a sign “riding lessons” out front.

I eventually showed on the A Circuit and many of my peers were first generation riders - kids from non-horsey families who fell in love with the sport and brought their families with them. Even at indoors/Devon/Florida there were a lot of juniors who were first generation riders.

From what I can tell (I don’t have kids myself), most of those opportunities to get into the sport are now gone. Riding lessons at summer camps are no longer normal. There are fewer riding schools and beginner programs, and those that exist are further away from the city and harder to get to. And my perception (haven’t done a survey) is that most juniors on the A circuit have parents who either ride currently, or rode in the past as kids.

My perception and fear is that a dwindling number of new riders is what will eventually kill the sport.

[mvp]

@GraceLikeRain

I anticipate that USEF will go the way of conformation dog showing.

You will see shows dominated by a handfully of independently wealthy AAs who can travel and trainers who have a seemingly impossible number of horses they are showing. The wealthy but works full time AA with 1-2 horses will be a bit of an anomaly. Politics will increase as a smaller number of trainers occupy a larger portion of the market. Working AAs will be further disenfranchised and less able to take the time off work to campaign a horse. Thus, they will work to make it possible for the trainer to campaign their horses. To make that possible for the trainer, trainers will have more working students. Working students will be from families where they can cover living expenses for “experiential learning” as middle class passionate riders take full time jobs because they cannot afford to be on the road 40 weeks a year with little to no pay. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we slowly saw an influx of Stallions and a movement away from geldings as wealthy owners approach it from more of a business model.

I could also see those wealthy owners who cannot travel bringing out AA horses at the A and B shows that are local and two day. This will further push out the “average AA” on a horse that may have been competitive in 2020. Essentially it will be a continued progression of the pieces already in place. Conformation shows are dying out. It is a graying sport where politics make it very hard for all but the most resilient amateurs to thrive. My crystal ball sees something similar.

I think this is right.

The only sub-30 young pros I know are having farms built for them by their parents. I have a feeling that people who become career-long horse trainers will now come from a great deal of money. Even 10 or 20 years ago, someone could build up a very modest but self-sustaining business at least without having someone bankroll them. But it takes a long time to establish a paying training barn. And I think it’s becoming increasingly hard to do without having access to a farm that one can control long-term since clients or school strings need continuity of a location, facility and standard of care.

I also think that the managers of those destination horse shows, the developers who built those dedicated facilities (with the exception of Wellington in the long run or Tryon in the medium run) are going to run into problems. If the middle class is cut out of horse showing, will those shows still fill the same number of stalls each week? Even if training barns concentration into a very few BNTs with huge strings, how many horses can/would a billionaire like to keep in training and showing? If you put several million into developing a large property for the specialized purpose of large horse shows, what else can you do with it in order to pay the note?

That said, there are other horse shows that are looking for facilities. Arabian Sporthorse Nationals is in a hard position always. They want to alternate between East- and West Coast locations, but can’t find a facility large enough that will do an alternate year contract. Balmoral in Illinois took this deal for one year but then got sold.

[DawgLady]

@mvp

I think this is right.

The only sub-30 young pros I know are having farms built for them by their parents. I have a feeling that people who become career-long horse trainers will now come from a great deal of money. Even 10 or 20 years ago, someone could build up a very modest but self-sustaining business at least without having someone bankroll them. But it takes a long time to establish a paying training barn. And I think it’s becoming increasingly hard to do without having access to a farm that one can control long-term since clients or school strings need continuity of a location, facility and standard of care.

I also think that the managers of those destination horse shows, the developers who built those dedicated facilities (with the exception of Wellington in the long run or Tryon in the medium run) are going to run into problems. If the middle class is cut out of horse showing, will those shows still fill the same number of stalls each week? Even if training barns concentration into a very few BNTs with huge strings, how many horses can/would a billionaire like to keep in training and showing? If you put several million into developing a large property for the specialized purpose of large horse shows, what else can you do with it in order to pay the note?

That said, there are other horse shows that are looking for facilities. Arabian Sporthorse Nationals is in a hard position always. They want to alternate between East- and West Coast locations, but can’t find a facility large enough that will do an alternate year contract. Balmoral in Illinois took this deal for one year but then got sold.

My professional is sub-30, but she may be an anomaly. She trains at the barn she grew up riding in. She has a lifelong relationship with the BO, who is an amateur. It was a lucky break for her, methinks.

[atl_hunter]

@Lucassb

I know there are lots of predictions about doom and gloom and the end of horse showing, but I suspect not much will change.

I agree completely. Even in a pandemic with the location changes, 205 riders showed up to the USEF Medal Final. One could argue that the numbers were down as in 2019 there was a field of 239, however, 209 is quite an impressive show considering all that has happened and the cost to attend knowing that so few riders will even make the final.

As for the rated scene, I’m seeing more millennial riders co-owning horses with their parents rather than footing the entire cost themselves. This works as the parents still enjoy the sport, it keeps them connected to the friend network they developed while their child was a junior. In some cases the parents have even started riding themselves and have taken over their child’s ride while they were in college as they can’t get their horse sold or leased.

I am seeing, in GA anyway, growth in the 2’6" division at the rated show as horses and riders age and need to step down from the AAs and AOs. With budgets tightening, this isn’t a surprise as a 3’ hunter with a longer career runway runs Mid-to-high fives up into the six figures for something REALLY competitive. People seem to be holding on to their existing mounts and maximizing their careers as much as possible. Also, I think some have found a comfort zone at 2’6", as a few are older and have had falls or other issues that make 3’ more challenging. One thing is for certain - the population is aging so I am not sure where this will go long term. Will these riders eventually replace these aging horses or will they move on to something else?

I’m seeing more self-class padding, meaning a wealthier owner or rider has multiple horses entered in the class in order to reach the point goal for a HOTY award. This isn’t new, but as more people back out of some of the more exclusive pay to play classes, I am finding I’m seeing it more often than before.

But I’m with you - the more things change, the more they stay the same.

[mvp]

@DawgLady

My professional is sub-30, but she may be an anomaly. She trains at the barn she grew up riding in. She has a lifelong relationship with the BO, who is an amateur. It was a lucky break for her, methinks.

Oh, yeah. This has always been one of the ways for the young’ns. If you could train a wealthy amateur who would supply a good home base barn, you had a basis for starting out. I’m not saying that’s easy. I think you could find more than one person’s career stalled because they parted ways with the BO who changed her mind. But with the quality of boarding going down these days and BO’s perhaps leery of renting out large blocks of stalls (a risk should the pro up and leave with all those boarders/clients at once), I think it’s even more crucial to have a good barn where you have some control.

[pds]

We are seeing an explosion of local shows and schooling shows here in Aiken SC. at multiple venues, some of which are world class. Perhaps Aiken is unique in this, but I hope it happens or is happening in other parts of the country. We have also seen a expansion of rated shows in Aiken.

[amb]

@DMK

I think “declining membership” tops the list. From the perspective of USHJA, that is not sustainable. It’s more their problem than USEF, in theory USEF would do OK if people opted out of USHJA and went to USDF or USEA or any other USEF affiliate. And the membership has been declining. More people aren’t seeing the value ain rated shows and are showing locally. And with what rated shows charge, I can understand why!

Does USEF get money indirectly from USHJA/USDF/USEA/etc members? Last time I dug into USEF membership numbers they were touting a significant increase, but I eventually found the numbers elsewhere that the huge bump was all in the new Fan Membership category which they are still giving away for free. I currently have such a membership and the live video feeds are pretty nice, but somebody’s paying for it somewhere. By comparison I do have a paid USDF membership and usually (but not in 2020) have a paid USEA membership, both to support the organizations and because I get something for it, but these days anything I give USEF directly is uncommon and strictly cash for services rendered. (I do however have any number of excellent local schooling shows to choose from.)

[DMK]

If you compete you have be a USEF member as well as a member of the respective organization (or pay the non member fee) so they get your money directly that way. And if you compete, USEF gets money per entry as well, so that is indirectly. I have no idea how much or if it varies between disciplines, but my best guess is that it’s not a one size fits all fee schedule.

If horse sports under the USEF umbrella were growing overall then it wouldn’t matter to their bottom line as much if you switched disciplines within the suite of sports under USEF. It would be a much bigger problem to the subgroup losing membership. But my understanding is both USHJA individually and USEF collectively are not growing. It would be more interesting to know if the USEF attrition is due to primarily USHJA attrition or the rate of decline is consistent across all the big three (USHJA, USDF, USEA) or maybe four, AHA is pretty big too. My bet is a greater percentage is USHJA, but that is entirely unfounded in any actual data and solely based on seeing how much unrated shows have exploded around here.