I would probably not run in the Derby - or any race - if I did not have a realistic chance of being in the top 3. I don’t often have to apologize to my horses.
After reading an article today on BH, Racetrack Coalition Moves Toward Lasix Ban in Stakes, I was reflecting on a similar change and initiative in a sports industry. (Twenty racetracks have committed to ending race-day Lasix in stakes in 2021).
My personal opinions, thoughts and experience only 
I don’t think that Lasix had anything to do with spate of breakdowns that SA experienced this winter nor any of the other breakdown spikes that other tracks have experienced one the last few years. I believe that the industry in the US has been discussing Lasix and a possible ban/moratorium on its use for many years, but not arrives at any consensus.
I was reminded this morning of maybe how SA’s spike in breakdowns may be a catalyst for many other far reaching changes in racing in the US.
On February 18, 2001, Dale Earnhardt was killed on the last lap of the Daytona 500 (a day I will personally never forget). For many years, NASCAR resisted making changes to tracks (technically not their pervue) as well as car and driver safety. Dale’s death wasn’t the first in a spate of NASCAR-related deaths. Adam Petty (May, 2000) and Kenny Irwin (July, 2000), both in NASCAR’s top 2 series, also died before Dale’s death and yet NASCAR took no visible action until Dale’s death.
Since then, NASCAR along with the tracks have made the top racing series’ racing at those tracks so much safer to the point that at the top levels, a death has not occurred since Dale. Have other race car drivers died? Yes, but at other tracks in other series and other disciplines.
Sometimes it takes a significant event to get a sporting collective to sit up and “do something” to keep the sporting collective from disappearing into the dust. NASCAR isn’t the betting public darling that horse racing is but both horse racing and car racing have an entire industry with thousands of employees dependent on the continued business of that sport.
Many racers don’t have lifetime horseman owners but are owned by LLCs and multi member partnerships looking for ROI, both monetary and seeing the silks in the post parade and joining that ever increasing mob of hangers on walking them over.
But I wouldn’t start one with no chance either.
Who is a longshot you like (if any), not necessarily to win but to get a piece of it? I kind of like By My Standards, and he looked very good breezing this morning. I’ll stick him in a 10-cent superfecta, anyway.
Here are my superfecta horses so far, not necessarily all in the same one, but I’ll figure out a few of those 10-cent superfectas just for fun with these.
Omaha Beach, Tacitus, Game Winner, Roadster, By My Standards.
War of Will (maybe. Will see how he comes up to it; a bit worried about that stifle injury which he recovered from awfully quickly),
Code of Honor (maybe. Will see how he comes up to it.)
My longshot: Win Win Win
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I watched By My Standards work yesterday. he is extremely impressive to watch on the gallop
Improbable is probably the most impressive horse to watch work. His stride reminds me of the great horses of yesteryear. But he pulled a gate loading stunt last weekend that almost got him scratched by the gate crew. If he was that worked up on a rainy day race card; imagine what he will be like in the Derby atmosphere
I love Long Range Toddy; wish they skipped his last race and let him race fresh on the Derby card. I think he could be entering the derby a tired horse.
I don’t care for Game Winner. He just never surprised me much and his works have looked less than impressive. He looks bored, or tired; or both.
A lot of it depends on the post positions so I will wait patiently until that is announced
The long shot that interests me is the Japanese horse (can’t remember his name) since I practically know nothing about him it adds a interesting wildcard to the race.
another interesting factor with him is his connections chose a legitimate jockey to ride him; not a Japanese jockey who has no familiarity with American racing and American tracks. He will be ridden by [B]Julien Leparoux
I am waiting for the Gate draw to make my decisions but below is my take on a few of a horses in the field. Hard to judge them all based on a few video’d works but I think we are in for a great Derby and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a longshot win it. The derby is anyone’s game with a 20 horse field.
Win Win Win [/B]showed some grit over the weekend when they accidentally hooked up with Mott’s training set. Win’s jockey took him wide and let the Mott pair go on the inside and then near the wire covered up 2 or 3 lengths in a handful of strides to pass them with gusto. His jockey immediately stood in the irons after the wire while the Mott pair kept going around the turn to the backside where they finally eased. Win kept at it, a nose in front until he was finally pulled up on the backstretch. He may be a bit of a headcase and he may be a complete longshot but I love this horse. And if you haven’t seen his pedigree; it’s worth a look. By the Sunday Silence son, Hat Trick, out of a dam by Smarty Jones. 2nd dam by Unbridled. Third dam by Caveat (Belmont Stakes Winner, 3rd in the KY Derby). If Win Win Win doesn’t hit the board in the Derby I hope they save him and take him to Big Sandy. This horse is full of class and he is a beautiful specimen as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m6_2_LXCBg&list=PLR51eAZR5uTyONerIaiVM0arr8qSXTcue&index=2&t=0s
Improbable. I love to watch this horse gallop. What an incredible, athletic, massive stride he has. He almost looks like he is bouncing along on the backstretch in his races; borderline uncomfortable for his jock. I think he is probably the most beautiful mover on the derby trail this year. BUT the horse is HOT. He couldn’t keep his cool 3 weeks ago in the gate on a rainy, quiet day at the track. He was dragging his rider around the track in his work over the weekend like a freight train. I think he is going to crack on derby day with the crowds and the noise. Irad Ortiz is going to have his hands full on Saturday. He has the mentality the running style of a sprinter. HIs workmate over the weekend looked just as impressive, maybe more impressive than Improbable himself. I hope he proves me wrong on Saturday but I just think he is too rank coming into it. He just cant seem to finish races or find the extra gear lately to make a finish because he’s so hot wired coming in. May be a horse to watch later in the year or as a 4 year old when he settles down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kNzsU0usMA
Code of Honor: He’s a rangy looking thing isn’t he? ha! but he put in a blistering work. Looks great. He will be ridden by John Velazquez who won with Always Dreaming and Animal Kingdom.
By My Standards: Caught my eye over the last few weeks. Will be ridden by Saez. Not sure if he will have what it takes to be the winner but could be an interesting long shot
Omaha Beach: HIs race record speaks for itself. He looked great with Julien Leperoux aboard in his work. I love his name. I hope he pulls it off on Saturday. Mike knows him well and if its raining on Saturday; we know he doesn’t mind Mud.
Tacitus: He’s a Tapit and he’s been doing quite well for himself. Mott has said numerous times he’s not real flashy in his works. That’s been evident the past week. He seems very workmanlike. But I am not convinced he has enough gas in his tank to make it first to the wire. Even more so with 20 horses bumping each other. Could he be the one to break Tapit’s curse?
Long Range Toddy: He will have the oldest jockey aboard to ever ride in a derby. the duo is the epitome of a cinderella story. He’s a very well bred horse by Take Charge Indy (AP Indy), out of a mare by Unbridleds Song. Second dam by Storm Cat. 3rd dam by Pleasant Colony. We know he has lots of grit beating Bafferts favorite once. I am concerned that he is a tired horse. I think they should’ve skipped his last start and come into this fresh. Wouldve been fun to see Calvin Borrel on this horse, not sure Jon is the man for this year. He did not appear to like the mud in his last start either. Worth a note if it rains on Saturday
Country House the chestnut in the 4 horse accidental work video noted above. He is Tacitus’s work partner for the Derby. He will be ridden by Prat. He was 2nd in the Risen Star. 3rd in the Arkansas. He just broke his maiden in January and suffered a poor start and a very wide trip doing so. He is not afraid to come from behind and he has proven he can close very well. He has improved well since breaking his maiden. I like him.
War of Will: He has a very interesting pedigree. By War Front out of a Sadlers Wells Mare x Riverman x Northfields x Sir Ivor. His maternal line is very old school, lots of class. As is his paternal line. He will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione which is a bit of a surprise to me. He is a beautiful horse. He won the Risen Star the Lecomte. Bred for Turf so surprising to see him take to dirt like he has and enjoy it.
Game Winner I know lots of people are sold on this horse but I’m just not. Yes, he won at Churchill for the breeders cup. We know Game Winner has a lot of grit but I think Omaha Beach has proven he has more grit twice now. Game winner likes to run mid-pack on the outside and doesn’t seem to have the kick needed in the stretch to get up and win.
Maximum Security will be ridden by Luis Saez. The horse is undefeated and beat Code of Honor without asking in the FL derby. He has no problem being a front runner. He has plenty of gas in the stretch. Can he do it? I think he’s worth looking at. He’s coming into this a fresh horse.
Roadster: out of all of Bob’s starters; this one intrigues me the most. He will be ridden by Geroux. He is the one horse Bob refuses to endorse and talk about but I think he is the most serious and consistent of the 3 he has entered. He is not the most imposing horse to look at. A bit on the lean side. It will be interesting to see how he takes to the track after travel this week. I expect him to hit the board
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Little far out but, as of today, Monday, it does not look like rain will be a major player this year.
I am surprised that Jason Servis has not shipped Maximum Security in to Churchill yet. The horse was working yesterday at Palm Meadows. I don’t mind his working style with his horses. Long, low and slow. Would probably help him if he was entered in the Belmont Stakes and it seems to be working for him, he had plenty in the gas tank in the FL derby.
I watched Master Fencer work this morning. Horse looks great for how much travel he has done! Nice looking horse as well.
Tax: I don’t know much about him but I watched him gallop this morning for the first time. Looks great. Happy horse, ears pricked all the way around. Love his gallop. Great stride. might be worth a longshot bet. cool horse
Tax is my longshot pick. Watched him win twice at Aqueduct, both times from the #1 slot in mud at his home track. Decent competition but not the big guns. Something about him I really like. Very professional, seems to have tactical speed, moved and rated as asked, Nice looking, breeding says he’s the real deal and a very good, efficient mover. Quality.
Interesting backstory. Claimed for 50k at Keeneland last fall by his journeyman trainer on a tip from a better known trainer whose opinion was he sort of got lost in a bigger operation and just needed more time. So far it’s worked well. Surprised he hasn’t gotten more press.
Do I think he’ll win? Not necessarily but look for a good, honest effort. Not sure he’s got the speed but maybe he does and has never had to use. Kind of depends on gate position and track surface too and how he accepts the chaos and close quarters breaking in that mob with 150k+ fans screaming in his face…
Certainly worth a look for your exactas depending on that PP draw and his recent works, which I don’t follow.
Checked his family tree to be sure before saying…lots of branches, he’s by Arch out of a Giants Causeway mare named Yell by AP Indy. Tail female to Flower Bowl and other solid performers who produced others. Nice.
Omaha Beach out of gate 12 (4-1) - I’m okay with that. He’s the morning line favorite.
Game Winner (16, 5-1) and Roadster (17, 6-1) in the aux gate, not as happy with that.
Improbable (5, 6-1).
Those are all morning line odds less than 10-1.
I’ll try a link from BH
If tax can get out of the 2 slot quickly without consuming too much spent energy by the first turn or encountering too much traffic, I think he has a shot to hit the board.
After PP draw; I am a bit lost
I like Improbable’s PP but he’s a nutjob. All the talent in the world but no brain to go with it. I want him to win but I don’t think he can. If he had the mind of Omaha Beach, I’d bet him to win
I am liking Maximum Security, Omaha Beach and Win Win Win. Throw Vekoma in there for good measure.
O is so far the only son of a Triple Crown winner to win the Triple Crown. He also looked to me like an old-timey racehorse. Even a steeplechaser.
Master Fencer looked GREAT this morning breezing with Julien. Probably a bit close to the derby to put in a long work but he looked great. Not at all bothered by the atmosphere; I saw him walking around in the paddock yesterday. He did his lead changes which the jockey was a bit worried about. He really looked like the real deal this morning; props to his Japanese connections. I hope he shows up on Saturday. He has a nice PP too!
War of Will and Improbable both dragging jockeys around the track this morning. War of Will is going to need that with PP#1. But he’s going to have to go for the lead and stay there.
@Rackonteur that is a beautiful photo of Omaha.
Morning line favorite Omaha Beach is a scratch due to an entrapped epiglottis. Which makes no sense to me but whatever, they obviously know more about his condition than I do
So glad connections are thinking of the horse first…but oh so bummed Omaha Beach is out! I was really rooting for him…I think I’ll be going for Win Win Win now.
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Bodexpress has now drawn in as the 20 horse. I would be wetting my pants right about now if I were his connections! Wonder if he is even on the grounds?
