Looking back at the old days of roads and tracks and steeplechase, they’re probably not.
I know that’s in the past, but damn, those horses were fit.
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Don’t forget that anyone conditioning is likely doing so in FL (maybe SC?), we could barely ride outside all winter and spring here in the Midwest, it was a rough year. They are conditioning and competing on much different ground.
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I don’t disagree with the majority of your post, but a small note to point out that the Brits in the Kentucky field were amongst the best of the Brits - that’s why it’s worth it for them to put a horse (or two) on a plane. The best of the Americans were good for fitness, too, for an apples-to-apples comparison. But I agree with your broader point.
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Highly recommend listening to the podcast from EN with Sinead talking about Kentucky and what went on. It’s very good.
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Was just coming here to recommend this. I really like the way Sally is handling this podcast in general, she does a good job of addressing issues head on while still being fair to the sport and the individual people involved.
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A few years ago the same discussion came up after Kentucky. One of things I will point out that even in the events leading up to kentucky, very few riders were making the time in those early season events. People will always point out that it’s early season, the horses aren’t fit yet, etc. Then we get to kentucky and horses still aren’t making the time. Yet, looking back to the early days, it was not common but not unusual for a horse to make the time.
So what is different?
First, the long format is gone, never to return. You really couldn’t run a warmblood back then and really expect to be competitive. So the horse competing has change.
More significant than that is what happens in the offseason. Part of the problem is that there is no off season anymore. Horses head south to SC, FLA, GA, etc. They do dressage, jumpers, etc. What they don’t do is add a real base of training for endurance. When I started fox hunting several decades ago, it was common to see upper level horses out in the hunt field in Virginia. Horses were out for hours at a time dealing with all kinds of terrain. Now they are in the south where it is sandy ring like footing and flat.
Every winter I take my horses for a week or so to Aiken to hunt. They are hunting fit and find the flat sandy conditions pretty easy. They can run for a long time. So while the weather is nicer down there in the winter, I don’t think it matters how long you run on flat ground when it comes to dealing with terrain on a 5* course.
I think it was Wofford who said that a horse that was first flight hunting once a week, would be fit enough to run a 5* event course.
So while it is nice to be down south in the winter, maybe it is not the best preparation for running a 5* when it comes to conditioning.
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I think another consideration as to why so few people make time in 5* courses (it’s not just Kentucky, and it’s not just american based riders) is that the courses have become a lot more technical, with the need to show jumping speed at times in order to succesfully navigate through a combination. All this change of pace makes it really hard to make up in the now shorter thab before gallop stretches.
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I seem to remember that some years ago when there were safety concerns, one of the “fixes” was to make time more influential, and to design courses that would result in at least some time penalties for the majority (if not all ) of the riders. However, this might be a fever dream.
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Back in the aughts (200x’s) there were huge safety concerns after a short spate of tragedies. How optimum times were set got a hard look, all across UL eventing.
David O’Connor led a study that placed volunteers at certain key points on the course to record the exact time each competitor crossed that point. This gave him data on when riders/horses were faster, and when slower, and basically their strategy to make time. That was a long time ago, but some of those time captures are still being done.
Another highlighted issue was how the course was being measured to set an optimum time. There were a lot of complaints of inaccuracy. Especially a course being measured as shorter than it rode. Creating a bias to a time that required speeds exceeding the specs for the level to make.
I think today people are looking at optimum time, and making the time, in different ways. But some of these perspectives may still be a topic.
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There were a few years in the aughts and early 10’s that I followed courses, optimum times, and results closely, to learn more about UL eventing.
Will make this statement: The setting of the optimum time can influence the ultimate winner in a 5*. A very tight time that few riders will make, of course adds penalty points to all of the scores that don’t make it. Depending on how the time penalties fall, enough time penalties among the top of the rankings can end up offsetting very good dressage scores.
There were periods in 4*-now-5* eventing when only five or so riders would make the time. To the point where several top riders would not be trying to make time, but rather simply be doing their best to minimize the time penalties, and rely more on dressage and clean show jumping.
On the other hand, an event where a larger percentage of the field makes the optimum time thereby elevates the influence of dressage and show jumping.
I am not talking about several riders having fewer than 4 time penalty points. Rather, even top riders accumulating time penalties that can significantly alter the rankings. Or conversely, most of the top dressage rankings make the time on xc, and then time doesn’t have much influence on the rankings.
There was controversy at one period (quite some time ago) with claims that European events were minimizing the time element, to maximize the dressage influence, thereby selling more of their not-so-fast warmbloods. Don’t know how valid that was. But there was firm belief in the theory by some influential people. Rules changes helped put cross-country optimum time more firmly back in the mix.
On the other hand, tight optimum times increase riders flying over the galloping stretches and then the big gear-down for the obstacles. Only to power back up again between obstacles. If the rider wants the best possible placing at the end.
It’s all about the math. And the discretion of whoever sets the optimum time for a given event. Hope this makes sense.
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@RAyers was in charge of a speed study in mid 00s. I remember wearing a GPS speed watch riding xc at Maui Jim Wayne. IIRC, the data was shocking… riders reaching fast speeds (>650mpm at prelim?) on gallop stretches trying to make up time. A lot of work went into the study, but the results were not used as effectively as they could have been.
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Yes. To echo @EventerAJ, we did several years of having riders wear GPS watches. I have data from novice all the way to Rolex and the PanAms. We presented this data at the USEA convention in 2008?
Back then we wanted to learn if the speed was the issue in the accidents to which the answer was “no.”
One thing to note is that no horse/rider jumped any jump faster than 450mpm. That told us balance was key. Michael Jung was the best with being in that range consistently. Bruce Davidson was a master at managing speed between fences consistently.
Another thing we found was that as horses tired, their speed varied rather than just slowed. At the same time the more combinations, the more the variation. That did lead to the concept that the average distance between obstacles could be no less than 140 meters to give the horses a chance to “recover.”
But this is all moot now. The sport is entirely different. The distances are shorter and the fences less massive with the courses much more technical.
One thing for the casual observer is when figuring out the time on course, each fence takes about a second to jump so on a 40 fences course you are already 40 seconds down on time. Thus, the speed between fences must compensate. In my experience, I never exceeded 880mpm between fences at the 3-star level.
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I’m just amazed at the proportions of some of the jumps. I don’t have a diagram in front of me, but it seems like some of the skinny jumps are only about 3 feet or so wide between the flags, but very long front to back.
So they require pretty much pinpoint accuracy from the horse and rider, both laterally and longitudinally. Even at a gallop.
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I initially had a problem with the transition to so many skinnes on the modern courses, partly because of this. It seemed more like an accuracy test than a XC test. Although I believe it was someone here on COTH who explained to me how much safer that is, which I can now appreciate. If a combination gets in trouble coming to these accuracy questions, the horse just glances off. Even if the horse tries to jump from a dangerous spot, the jumps are so narrow that their body can’t really get hung up to rotate without some sort of perfect storm of flukey events occuring.
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It would be interesting to me to see if the lack of fitness stems from an increasing number spending the winter and early spring in Florida and Aiken, where the hills/footing do not match what you see at Kentucky and Fair Hill.
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And to that point, more limited space (at least in Ocala). Most barns in Ocala operate with somewhat limited space so you may have to seek out a track (I know some UL have access to one), haul out, do endless sets in the same jump field or add in some alternative options (swimming, treadmill, aquatread - all of which we luckily have good access to). Makes me curious about places where they may have much more space to ride out and condition, even disregarding the valid point of terrain. I know my trot sets around our field are like light torture to my ADHD brain. I look longingly at some of the big fields at TB farms I drive by on my way to the barn.
Still better than the arena circles I did as a loper for a cow horse trainer 
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Here in the Midwest there is NO WAY to get the fitness you need to be ready for an April show like that. We could barely even ride outside in March on groomed arenas. Most eventers at that level who are normally based in the midwest/cold areas winter somewhere south.
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After reading all 348 posts on this thread, I have decided that what will actually kill eventing is ClipMyHorseTV.
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That’s a real possibility. However, the rider who received a yellow card in Kentucky does not go south to my knowledge. 
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I just looked it up and Boyd Martin seems to spend time in Aiken every winter.
I also keep wondering about this idea that Warmbloods are just not a capable of being as fit and it’s a bit difficult to find the breeding of the top event horses easily but I found the USEF hall of fame:
Biko - TB/Irish Draught
BallyCor - not listed (internet search seems an unraced TB)
Plain Sailing - “by an Irish stallion, out of an Irish mare” (I’m thinking not TB since other TB’s are mentioned by breed)
The Grasshopper - not listed
Jenny camp - by “famous TB stallion” out of “mare though to be TB/Standardbred”
Eagle Lion - out of “Stream Lion” by TB stallion - Dam listed as Irish Sport Horse on Wikipedia
Out and About - TB
Winsome Adante - not listed listed as " (84.5% TB, 9.5% Arabian, and 6% Irish)
Molokai - TB
McKinlaigh - “Highland King x Kilcumney Hostess”
The Gray Goose - “seven eigths bred Irish horse”
Giltedge - not listed (listed as Irish Sport horse in Wikipedia with a full TB GRAND sire)
Irish Cap - not listed
Custom Made - Irish Sport Horse
Kilkenny - not listed
I think I missed one on the hall of fame but overall it does not look like full TBs dominated the sport. I bet most of those cavalry horses that dominated the really early days had all kinds of unknown breeding.
I think time faults have more to do with the current structure of the cross country course and tired horses have more to do with how individuals prep their horses for the event.
Also, keep in mind, increasing technology means we watch far more rounds than previously. ON TV, and even in DVD high lights, the best are viewed and the relative joe schmoe (ie-Calvin) would have likely not made the cut unless he won his first ever try at a 5*.
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