Yes, I agree. Yes, it wasn’t quite as exciting as Pharaoh but I was jumping and screaming alone on the sofa when he crossed the finish line. He just exudes power and probably should have been Arnold. Not the Teddy Bear like Pharaoh
but so impressive.
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Um, why? He wasn’t sound enough to race at 2. He limped in a circle after the Derby. His career may make it into the fall for the Breeders Cup, or it may not. He is retiring this year. So you want to see more horses that start 10 or fewer times in their lives, and only race less than one full year???
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Um, because I don’t believe 2 year olds should be raced and maybe with one being successful without doing it, more will follow. the rest is just business.
I think way too much has been made of the bruised hoof.
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The facts, research and science support racing 2 yos, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Since 1875 only 13 have won all 3 (about 9%) and only 1 did not race as a 2 yo about ( well less than 1% at .7%) and you think that .7% success rate should lead the way? There are plenty of horses nominated to the TC races every year, and some of them don’t race as 2 yos and are quite well bred and talented (Arrogate) yet they don’t win the Triple Crown. It’s a .7% success rate for a reason.
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Hmmmmm please share where you get your insider info, because it’s not been said anywhere (by a person in charge of him) I remember reading, that Justify was “unsound” as a 2 y/o.
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:rolleyes:
Can you cite where he didn’t race at 2 due to unsoundness?
Yeah, he “limped” in a circle the day after the KD but not for all that many days after the KD. After the videos of Justify being off the day after the KD, he was closely examined by both the public as well as state vets and none could find any on-going problem.
Can you cite where he is retiring this year? I haven’t seen confirmation of that yet. For all I have seen, he might do BC and based on his performance there, on to Dubai as did AP to then be retired.
What you think or feel might be going on isn’t the same, IMO, as having solid information from the connections close to the horse.
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I sort of felt the same way–Justify ran a nice race and a TC win doesn’t happen very often, but I find Gronkowski’s race much more compelling, and overall, felt he ran a better race. I wonder what might have happened if he’d broken just a little better? Would this even be a conversation if he had?
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There’s vets physically right there watching with the authority to examine and pull any horse appearing "off right up until they load into the gate. And they have done so. Fit, highly tuned racers can appear tight until they loosen up and a camera image on a small screen can be misleading.
Recall the same kinds of things said about SS in his year. By the time Affirmed won it, they were saying the TC was too easy. Go figure. The horse is undefeated in a much better then average year for quality colts. I disagree his wins have not been strong enough, what is lacking?
I want to see J at Saratoga, graveyard of favorites. Where TC winners, most recently AP, fail. Imagine his ownership group might like to see what he can do there and go to the shed after the BC Classic.
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It’s hard for me to see how Gronkowski ran a better race when he wasn’t the one who was in front at the end.
Horses that close from way off the pace always look like they’re doing something impressive. And why not? They’re speeding up when the rest of the field is slowing down. But the reason they have the energy left to do that is because they haven’t put in any real effort yet.
While Justify was setting solid fractions in the front of the field, Gronkowski was trailing along 14-15 lengths behind. The race was 2/3 of the way over before Gronkowski even began to get involved. No wonder he still had plenty of run left. And even then, it wasn’t enough.
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I’ve been going to Belmont for years, having grown up in NYC and having family there still.
I’ve also seen many of the recent near misses. The most poignant was when Real Quiet was up for a Triple Crown bid and I happened to have a press pass and was within arms length of Kent D. afterwards…
Anyway, fast forward to American Pharoah and something in the air was different. Completely different from anything I had felt before at Belmont Park. Even when California Chrome was up for a bid I didn’t feel it, as much as I wanted him to win.
Still can’t explain it…
This year I was thrilled that Justify won, but I didn’t have the same feeling as with AP, but probably had something to do with the 37 year thing .
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The above is so true. Extreme example: search on Silky Sullivan.
And, yes, this triple was different. To my mind they are all different. And exciting, and wonderful.
No, Justify is not AP. He is Justify, and that is enough.
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Search Native Diver too. Example of the other extreme.
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If he was sound enough to race, he would have raced. They start race horses in the fall of their yearling year. Whatever was going on with Justify, they did not go on with his training after that. Meaning, he was not physically capable of handling training at that time. These are big, professional operations. They don’t drop $500,000 on a yearling and then turn him out on the back 40 for a year just because. They try to get the horse to the races, and if the horse says he is not physically ready to race, fortunately they don’t race them. But they sure would if they could. These bigger colts are a gamble, they are harder to keep sound and they are harder to keep at a peak. If you can hold them together long enough to reel off some G1s, then they usually retire once their form starts tailing off.
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Sounds like a bit of a disconnect… does “not physically capable” really mean Justify was “unsound” or just that he wasn’t in a suitable place physically to be a competitive racehorse.
Look at Arrogate. He didn’t race at two either. You think he was also “unsound”??
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Jun. 10, 2018, 01:34 AM
This is the story of why Justify didn’t race as a two year old, according to his owner (the one who represented himself as his owner at the races.) They were able to buy Justify as a yearling at a bargain price (half a million) and eventually sent him to Baffert. Baffert sent him to his second string barn. Finally J’s trainer made Baffert watch him run. It was too late to race him as a two year old. The tv coverage today reported that last February Baffert went to the track office the day of J’s maiden race to make sure the race wasn’t cancelled for lack of interest. The folks there asked him why he cared and Baffert replied, “Because I have a colt entered that I believe could win the Kentucky Derby!” And the rest is history!
Posted by Frosty M
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I don’t think this percentage applies to the question at hand; surely we need to compare the number of horses who raced as both 2 and 3 year olds and find the percentage of those who won the TC – so that would be 12 out of how many? And then compare that percentage to how many thoroughbreds who did NOT race as 2 year olds won the TC – 1 out of how many? Then see which percentage is larger, and also subject that difference to statistical testing to see if it is actually statistically significant. Or at least in some way statistically control for the difference in the sample sizes of horses who raced as 2 year olds vs those that didn’t race til age 3.
But since there are likely differences in the numbers of horses who raced as both 2 and 3 year olds versus those who only began racing as 3 year olds – you’re just not comparing the same pool of horses. I would guess far more TBs begin racing as 2 year olds than as 3 year olds (isn’t that more the norm?), so of course there would be more TC winners who raced as 2 year olds.
Out of curiosity – the 9 % is 13 out of what? All racing thoroughbreds of the same age from a particular year? Or 9% out of all the tbs who have entered any of the TC races, or all of the TC races in a given year?
Or are you simply saying that there has been a TC winner in 9% of the years since 1875-- because that doesn’t really say anything about racing as a 2 yo or not. Are you just saying 2018 - 1875 = 143; 13/143 = .09 or 9%. All that says is that in 9% of the years since 1875, there has been a TC winner – really doesn’t speak to any characteristics of the horses. That’s just simply a statistic about the number of years there’s been a TC winner.
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When you are bringing along a 2 yo, and even when you are starting a yearling, it’s hugely apparent that they get stronger and more coordinated and more balanced as they train along. It used to be my favorite thing since you start with a youngster that could barely move forward without tripping over his feet to one that felt like a little powerhouse racehorse a few months later. But some of them just don’t progress as well, and if you keep pushing them, you break them down. They just are not holding together and developing, and it’s frequently the bigger ones. And yes, Arrogate is in that group. They could not get him together to get him ready for the Derby, or I’m positive he would have won the Triple Crown. He was an absolute monster that year. And how many starts did he have and how long was his career? I have not looked him up, but I’d bet it’s 10 or fewer starts and less than one year between his first and last start.
Arrogate’s career was over the summer after his successful three-year-old campaign. He was 16.2 and wasn’t raced as a two-year-old because of “shin issues.”
Didn’t Justify have OCDs which may have been part of the bring him along slowly thought process?
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