[QUOTE=tom;3698830]
There is little substantive difference between a statistical reliability of 98 and a reliabilty of 99. What is driving Donnerhall’s very high reliability is the fact that he was a good sire PLUS the very very large number of offspring.
TH FN index is very suspect, in my opinion, because it overweights to an incredible degree performance test results, Bundeschampionate results, and young horse clases. So it is very common for a young stallion with not a single progeny in sport to be very highly ranked (an example is Stakkato early in his career) if he did great at the Bucha and the HLP.
Someone wrote about that each peice of data/information can be useful and in some respects this is true. But one must recognize the limitations of the data and analyses or silly conclusions are drawn such a 4-y-o stallion X is the “best” sire in Germany or mareline Y is the “best” motherline in the world.[/QUOTE]
i suppose you guys are talking about the “zuchtwertschätzung” referring to it as “FN index”?
if that is the case, i’ld like to back that in a slightly more positive manner.
the zuchtwertschätzung as such is outright ridiculous. a sirD with no get in sports simply doesn’t belong there.
however, the FN data provided in the FN yearbook does provide for slightly more reasonable grounds.
the 2008 yearbook is still to come, so i can’t refer, but lets take the 2007 data and use belissimo as an example.
2007 was the first year his 3yr old get entered the sport arena in reitpferdeprüfungen.
beside the number of 3yr old mares having been shown at mare inspections (30) backing the zuchtwertschätzung they also give you the exact number of get shown in reitpferdeprüfungen:
49 o/o wich 24 scored in the rankings. you can check those indvidual 24 horses and see where they started and how they scored.
pretty good data i’ld say.
rider is being named and if you know he is a super star professional you know how you have to read those scores, too.
meaning:
scores won by nameless riders certainly count higher with respect to the “intrinsic” value of the indivdual horse (rideability, purest gaites or jumping scores)
only thing FN lacks completely is total number of get on the ground (foals, unregistered sporthorses)
too bad, but since total numbers of breedings aren’t listed by most of the verbands at all we have to swallow it.
however, following the domestic breeding scene closely one develops a healthy understanding for how many (or few) foals a stallion sired in his first year.
in fact, the relative value of the FN data increases with stallions who have known to be of “lesser” use in younger years…
ex.:
lissabon.
jumper stallion by lordanos sion contender.
few mares in the first years and all of them supposedly jumper mares.
you wouldn’t expect anything to show up age 3 at all since jumper comp start age 4 only.
however, the stallion showed 8 kids in his first year succesful in reitpferdeprüfungen - pretty outstanding for a supposed-to-be-jumper-only stallion.
in his second year data was mixed since first kids old enough to compete in 4yr old jumping classes.
prove has it, he already outnumbered famous cornet obolensky (same age) by sheer winning numbers of his get.
the value in these numbers lies in the fact that the first stallion mentioned is known to have sired only a reasonable two digit number of mares while the latter not only made it into the triple digits but is said to have sired some 300 foals in his first year.
no we are talking comparison based on total numbers PLUS the fact that a pure jumper even made it into the dressage rankings with his get.
same logic applies when first crop of 5yr olds appear at the bucha szene.
cornet showing an impressive number of 30 at the bucha.
10% of his kids appeared at the bucha.
statistically speaking any stallion having sired 10 foals o/o which 1 appears at the bucha did as good.
i suppose there are quiet a few who had a kid a the bucha from their first year’s meager crop…
same is true for get scoring at S-level.
they quote those explicitly in total numbers.
these numbers are of greatest value since by the time a stallion’s get competes at S level enough common knowledge has been raised with respect to (assumed) total numbers of get/breeding (2digits vs 3digit numbers).
ex.:
sandro hit.
15 years old.
first breedings in 1996, eldest kids are 11 by now.
5 kids competing in S (for which they have to be 7 or elder)
with a single exception all of these five are licensed stallions promoted professionally for breeding purposes (as opposed to classic sport horses professional dressage riders choose to compete internationally).
all of these (4) licensed stallions are known well for reasons of ridability, who rides them, rode them before, why they were taken over by s.o. else, etc etc
i suppose same is true for jumper stallions just that in jumping the aspect of ridability is being washed out for reasons of “tools” professionals are given to somewhat “relativate” these features at competitions.
bits.
other than in dressage, 5&6yr old jumper classes already allow for any kind of bits and they do make use of them big times…
you really need to read between those lines and it tells you everything you need to know.
i really wouldn’t want to miss that kind of data and certainly hope i always know how to read those statistics 
can’t wait to hold the 2008 yearbook in my hand and see how many sirD kids appeared at reitpferdeprüfungen and who showed them…
