I’m disappointed about Tami, but not totally surprised (although in some ways I’m both surprised and not-surprised by all of these?). As I mentioned during the LRK3DE postgame thread, Mai Baum has had issues XC in both of his highest-pressure outings, and I can see an argument that just, the pressure and the risk are really high, so, we’re not going to go with someone who hasn’t done a clean XC round at the level. That said, everyone except Doug on the list has had a high-profile recent flame-out (Liz and Philip at Aachen 2019 and Boyd on Long Island T and Tsetserleg at Kentucky), so…
Fond as I am of all of them, none of these pairs have the kind of consistent performance records of horses like the Germans will bring, or the Kiwis. Bit more of a question who gets on the plane from the UK, as some of those horses have had bigger swings between spectacular and really disappointing, but, the US just isn’t quite there.
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Actually, Doug had a horse fall at Burghley. But I think we need context on the XC issues to really understand them in terms of picking a team.
Z, Deniro Z, & Vandiver have each had the VERY occasional XC issue, but never because the horse said no. Vandiver looked like he just ran out of scope at Burghley (Tokyo won’t be nearly that big), Deniro Z fell on the flat at Aachen, Z fell at Aachen because he misread the question. However, none of these horses have had an XC issue because the said no. These are horses who attack XC courses & don’t ask questions.
Mai Baum asks questions. Watching him at the Aiken Showcase was enough for me to say he’s just not confident enough. Is he our best shot at an INDIVIDUAL medal? Yes. But we can’t afford another Loughlan Glen with three to a team.
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I would have probably put Tamie in Doug’s slot at the traveling sub/alternate. My logic being that if anyone of the other three don’t get around x-country or don’t jog, Tamie and MB would be my pick to SJ clean! But no matter what, I think these ar rail I’d choices that represent the best we had to pick from.
You’re right, I forgot Doug’s fall at Burghley.
I love watching Bug go, and really enjoy Lauren’s style of riding, but…can someone better versed than I please comment on her record in championships? In my amateur memory, it seems like she’s fallen quite a bit on XC, from Veronica and also Bug, in high pressure, international competitions. As much as I like the pair, and her as a person, I don’t think of her as having “finish at all costs” reliability on xc day.
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0 for 2 at major championships with XC falls at both.
If I had endless funds and a nice young horse, Lauren would be at the top of my list of who I’d want to start it, and, if we had XC equitation in the Olympics, she’d be there every time. But I don’t and we don’t.
There’s something with the O’Connor camp that just lacks a “get it done” mentality on XC. I notice it the most with Hannah-Sue, but Lauren is a little bit the same. It looks pretty (most of the time), but it’s slow and it never looks like the rider is saying, “hey, we’re doing this. GO”
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I would agree with you if there was still a drop score. But with 3 to a team, cross country completion is the key to winning medals. If a pair have to be subbed out for a fall or not jogging up, it’s a 200 point penalty (if I recall correctly). A clear show jumping round is not going to save that score.
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Interesting observation on it being a common thread with team O’Connor. I don’t like being critical of people who are so much better than I am, and also who I like and support, but when considering them for a team, xc consistency at the upper levels can seem to be lacking from some of those riders. Thinking of Lauren, Hannah-Sue, and Marilyn Little. Does Jennie Brannigan ride with them as well?
Conversely, until the other week, Lynn Symansky is one of the few I just expect to make it around clear every single time, regardless of horse, and I believe she trains with Karen and David.
I found the choice of Luke 140 for Boyd to be interesting. I know he has won the only two 4 star-Ls he has done, but he’s also only done two 4 star-Ls and completed a single 4-S with Phillip while Boyd was hurt. It seems like a bizarre choice of mounts when Boyd literally has a barn full of experienced 5 star horses and horses with international team competition experience. Clearly they (selectors riders coaches) know something we don’t.
Editing: I guess only Thomas and On Cue have 5 star experience; I thought Long Island T had completed one but I was wrong on that. And all his other international competition horses aren’t active under him. But I am still intrigued why you’d go with a less experienced horse before either of those two.
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A lot of people have commented that Tsetserleg doesn’t travel well. So that makes perfect sense. Equiratings did a podcast with one of the vets for the games and the journey sounds like an absolute nightmare.
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I was a little surprised on that one as well, but show jumping is going to be a very big deal. With XC being technically a level below, I have a feeling the show jumping is going to be extremely difficult.
Luke is a very very good show jumper, On Cue & Thomas are a little more of a gamble. I think you’re going to have to keep it under 2 rails total for a team of three (absolute maximum) if you want to medal this year. Thomas has improved, but he did have 5 down at VHT last year. Even 3 down would probably kill the team at Tokyo, and that’s assuming the other two jump clear.
Any team that can put in 3 clear SJ rounds is going to be in a good place, assuming no major issues on XC. It’s the German’s weakest phase by far. Both Chipmunk and Hale Bob could easily have two rails apiece. The Brits are in another league, but I do think this U.S. team can medal if they all meet or exceed their expected performances.
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Agreed. I was thinking about that last night. Like I said, all three of his horses are good, so they probably picked the one who was most likely to make the journey the best.
I was also thinking about the team itself and others may disagree, but I feel like this is a team that has the ability to complete, maybe medal if the performances are consistent enough, but complete first and foremost (as long as they don’t get too medal hungry and make mistakes). I think if they were trying to go for medals and take the risk of non-completion, Mai Baum and Thomas definitely would have been going.
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I completely agree with every word of this, and I bet it’s the rationale they used to select the team. Agree with @Texarkana though - it makes me wonder how Luke ended up where he did. He’s never said “no”, but he’s also had far fewer chances. He’s a stunning horse but I expected they’d wait on him for Paris. To your later point RE: show jumping, Benchmark, I don’t think anything will be in the same realm of importance as cross-country at this Olympics. Three to a team is really going to throw a wrench into things. Unless a horse has a history of rearing in the dressage or going absolutely bowling for pins, I wouldn’t really consider anything but xc reliability when selecting for this round.
I must say, I leave Veronica out when I look at Lauren. The horse was never reliable in my eyes - tried super hard, and a beautiful creature, but she fell down a lot. With Lauren, but also with Karen, so I don’t attribute it to a rider issue. I just don’t think that horse minded if she hit the ground.
Lauren did come off of Bug at Tryon, but to me it was pretty flukey: he was much, much greener, and she’s certainly put herself in other very high pressure situations since then with him by choice (like Burghley, when many Americans included Doug had big trouble) and came out really well.
She also went to the Pan Ams in 2015 and put up an excellent result (I miss Scarlett), so it’s not that she can’t perform in a team environment at a major championships. That was her first major senior team, and she put in a very classy round.
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That makes sense. But if he’s such a horrendous traveler, why name him at all? With the cluster that is the Olympic flight, no less. Poor guy. I recall a video Boyd posted from the Pan Ams of Thomas rolling in the grass, and the caption was something like ‘enjoying a roll!’ but he didn’t look like he was enjoying himself at all. He was pinning his ears and grinding his teeth. I guess they don’t care if the ruin horses if it’s for the Olympics.
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Personally, I agree with this. I wouldn’t ship my horse there unless I knew it was a super good traveller and could handle the heat. My one mare doesn’t do heat well at all…she wouldn’t be going. From that podcast it honestly sounds like these horses will likely be done after this event. Sounds like hell and despite their best efforts it will be difficult for them.
I almost feel like the TS Maui Baum situation has vibes of Sinead Halpin and MDC… a real shot at a medal who were told they had a good shot at the team if they did XYZ… which they do, then they are left off. I can only hope TS and MB win a 5*. I think that horse is better than what’s being said here. He might look before he leaps but that was his first 5*. In insane conditions against a top field and very hard course. He will only grow from that experience as Will TS.
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I wouldn’t say JB is lacking in the ‘get it done’ department. In fact, she seems to crash a lot while going for it. Which may be a separate issue, but boldness is not a problem for that woman.
I’m always feeling like Lauren gets a reputation for being steady and cautious, but actually she goes through combinations just as fast (if not faster) than others. But because she’s not flapping her elbows and whatnot people don’t think she’s bold.
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Do we know that she was told if she did XYZ she’d be named? She wasn’t on the winter training list so I’m assuming she knew that she had more to prove than the 4 who were. May be a different conversation without the frangible, but in my eyes, the frangible was a result of exactly what a team selector’s concern with the horse would be. Duvander has been very transparent in saying a team medal is the goal for Tokyo. If we had the drop score, I’m 100% sure she’d be in and Doug would still be the reserve; however, without a get of jail free card, I think they picked the correct 3.
If you were going all in on one horse, I’d pick Mai Baum all day. I think he could win something big this year (Aachen, Fair Hill, or Pau), but this Olympics just isn’t where you want to take a gamble. Not to mention he hasn’t always been the soundest horse in the world…
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And yet, Tami and Mai Baum finished ahead of Liz and Doug at Kentucky. So…how does that compute?
I agree Mai Baum can be sticky and balky on xc. I actually thought he looked really good at Kentucky, I’ve seen him look much worse. And I’m a huge Tami girl/fan, but I would like to see her doing less packaging before a fence and more galloping out of stride. Even still with all that, I would have taken them, because when they are on, they rock. And aren’t we going to try to win a medal? Or just be safe with Liz and maybe Doug and on our best day finish outside the top? Yeah, I would have picked Tami and gone for broke.
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Maybe because she was rider of the year and had more wins than anyone else last year. I think they picked the right three.
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