I discovered it by accident. I had him in a 180g high neck (Wug style high neck) turnout, unclipped and bought a 280g quilt as I wanted to change him to quilts under rainsheet instead of weighted turnouts. And quite abruptly I had my happy, willing horse back. He had never been cold by any method I knew for checking comfort, but evidently he was being affected. My theory is that the work his muscles did to keep warm made him uncomfortable and thus obnoxious to work with when I was asking him to do things.
He tends to get tight in his shoulders - I can see the difference in his movement, how he puts his front feet down, how much he’s willing to reach forward when I longe. It’s blindingly obvious from the saddle, but he was so unhappy under saddle that I longed first to see if he got cold the night before. He was easier to warm up out of the discomfort on the longe too.
Much of the first full winter was guesswork. I used the neck rug and rainsheet over various quilts - 150g, 280g or 340g. The neck rug was uninsulated. I got it wrong often because my other horses needed less, and as he lived out full time I would have to balance warm enough at night with not overheating during the day.
I now use an insulated neck and can use lighter quilts (a 200g quilt with his 200g neck rug is as good as the 280g quilt with 0g neck). I have also had him on magnesium for the last couple of winters (magnesium can help with muscle function) which may be helping too. I do a low modified trace clip (belly left unclipped below a straight elbow to stifle line) and he’s still good. I blanket him for the low temperature and my other horse for the high.
My rough mental temperature guide is:
15C and rain - rainsheet, no neck
10C or less - rainsheet (neck if raining lots)
0C - rainsheet, neck, and 100g quilt
-10C - rainsheet, neck and 200g quilt
-15C - rainsheet, 200g neck, and 200g quilt
Heavier quilts will depend on the weather, not just temperature. Wind, snow, how long the colder temperature is going to last (like one night at -20C I’ll leave the 200g quilt on, but 3+ days and I’ll go heavier). It’s practice and judgement and recognizing that if I get it wrong he will be okay and I will just have to longe a bit more to warm him up (and I can add that miscalculation to my mental blanketing chart).
It really was trial and error to figure out what worked.