[QUOTE=Jealoushe;8168203]
But the rate of death in rotational fall is 1/5…not the greatest odds.[/QUOTE]
Both the instance and rate of rotational falls has decreased significantly since 2004.
Are you able to admit that this is a positive trend in safety for both rider and horse?
What data are you getting that from? FEI events? Uk? USA? I can admit when I read it myself, but not just from the FEI. Rotationals happen at the National level too in all countries. This is the issue -we basically have no idea about anything because there is hardly any data.
If you are so concerned about safety why have you not yet even bothered to look at the statistics that have been linked multiple times in this very thread?
You are one of the loudest voices stating the sport is more dangerous than it used to be - don’t you think you should actually have a small peek at the research to see if your opinions are valid? This is incredibly frustrating.
[QUOTE=Manahmanah;8168250]
If you are so concerned about safety why have you not yet even bothered to look at the statistics that have been linked multiple times in this very thread?
You are one of the loudest voices stating the sport is more dangerous than it used to be - don’t you think you should actually have a small peek at the research to see if your opinions are valid? This is incredibly frustrating.[/QUOTE]
ummmmmmmmm 
I have, several times. I read it every single time a thread is posted and the links are supplied. That is my point. The data is much too limited to draw any conclusions.
Jealoushe-- the poster and collector of that information theorized that the effort to jump 4*size fence required energy to be captured to jump up and over not just through and is unique to that level. http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-209057.html
Here is a 3* w Ingrid klimke which also tends to support this observation where-- for some big open jumps she is going at speed(on the fly) but for many many big technical fences and combinations she is going much slower (350-450 -but I did not take notes 
).
http://eventingnation.com/home/wednesday-video-from-kentucky-performance-products-ingrid-klimkes-wiesbaden-helmet-cam-with-sap-analysis/i
[QUOTE=omare;8168441]
Jealoushe-- the poster and collector of that information theorized that the effort to jump 4*size fence required energy to be captured to jump up and over not just through and is unique to that level. http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-209057.html
Here is a 3* w Ingrid klimke which also tends to support this observation where-- for some big open jumps she is going at speed(on the fly) but for many many big technical fences and combinations she is going much slower (350-450 -but I did not take notes ).
http://eventingnation.com/home/wednesday-video-from-kentucky-performance-products-ingrid-klimkes-wiesbaden-helmet-cam-with-sap-analysis/i[/QUOTE]
I hope RAYers can come by and verify the accuracy of either his study or the speed determined on those helmet cams. Because they are pretty far apart in terms of speed the fences are taken.
Based on this quote, I think these helmet cams might be more accurate.
Jun. 10, 2009, 11:50 PM
So – the ?400 mpm is in the air, over the fence?
I will say “possibly,” as we can not exactly pinpoint every fence etc. and the resolution can be on the order of the size of the fence. However, when overlaying the speed plot over the aerial photos of the courses we have (such as Greenwood, Maui Jim and Colorado Horse Park) many times the drop in speed corresponds to specific fences.
[QUOTE=Manahmanah;8168189]
This is the problem with trying to analyze data from memories. We THINK the injuries have increased, we don’t REMEMBER it being this bad.
Is there a greater instance of injury since the 80s/90s? Probably, yes. I bet your memory is serving you correctly.
Does your memory account for the increased popularity of the sport? The statistics linked earlier from Eventing Nation / FEI data safety reports indicate there are nearly twice as many FEI level events as compared to 2004. If there are twice as many events, one can expect to see twice as many serious injuries. If there are 4 or 5 times as many events now as in the 80s, one can expect to see 4 or times as many serious injuries.
This does not mean the sport is getting less safe for rider or horse.
Just looking at a few data points as examples from the 2014 report - in 2004 there were 235 horse falls for a 2.02% rate of injury. Looking at 2014, there were 315. Without looking further at the data (or if you do this from memory or feelings) it would look like a huge increase. However, compared to the number of starters even though there was an increase in the instance of horse falls, the rate has actually decreased from 2.02% to 1.64%.
The rate and instance of rotational falls has decreased significantly over the same time frame.
Everything from the FEI report suggests there is no increase in the rate of injury, contrary to the opinions of a lot of people in this thread. There is an increase in the instance of injuries that is consistent with the increasing popularity of the sport.
Speaking of popularity for a minute, isn’t this what we want? More horse trials, more participants. More spectators. This is not going to happen if we insist on poisoning the well from within. It is really important that you look at real data in an analytical and unemotional way before standing at the podium and decrying how dangerous this sport is becoming. It’s really not. The data supports this.[/QUOTE]
Thank you for such a sensible and clearcut explanation, and one based on actual data. I also believe that we can state with considerable confidence that due to the increase in media coverage and availability of that coverage, accidents today are far far more salient than they were 20-30 years ago. Today, we find out about and discuss at length any serious accident, hours or even minutes following. Thirty years ago, we might hear within a month if we are part of the network of people attending events in the area in which the accident has occurred. Otherwise, we would find out about it in a monthly publication, if we purchased or borrowed that publication - and then any discussion of that accident might occur in letters to that publication two months following.
So, it is pretty evident that accidents are far FAR more salient than they were in the old days. I mean, how else could you possibly argue otherwise?
" I hope RAYers can come by and verify the accuracy of either his study or the speed determined on those helmet cams. Because they are pretty far apart in terms of speed the fences are taken."
I think RAyer did verify the accuracy with a radar gun --like a traffic court radar gun----he also has a “pedigree” in this science from what I understand.
(As to you last quote I dont know what it means :))
I think Klimke round is in accord with his findings as most of the fences were jumped-- in the 3 star–(not a 2star) anywhere from 340-to a little over 400 with only a few flyers. (I jotted down 400, 400 370, 400 390 340 460 390 360, 390 as some of the approixmate speeds over the big techincal jumps/skinnies combinations water etc. ) She ended up 4th I think. In between she went up 800m also in accord w what he found. Again I guess (ammie guess) the NZ difference is the course and fence height. (edited to add it looks like it was a galloping course-jump gallop-jump gallop-- but when it got technical the speed went down-down down–between 300-410 --look around 3:20ish mark and 4:20ish mark and out of water it goes way down etc. )
[QUOTE=Winding Down;8168711]
So, it is pretty evident that accidents are far FAR more salient than they were in the old days. I mean, how else could you possibly argue otherwise?[/QUOTE]
I guess if you consider the data from FEI and USEF to encompass all of eventing you might think that. There are a lot of events left out of this, is all I am saying.
I think RAyer did verify the accuracy with a radar gun --like a traffic court radar gun----he also has a “pedigree” in this science from what I understand.
(As to you last quote I dont know what it means )
well radar gun tickets are often thrown out in court, so not sure what you meant by that. I know RAYers is the expert, thats why I was hoping for his opinion
Regardless the helmet cam tool looks like it might be extremely useful for the future of eventing and studying falls.
“well radar gun tickets are often thrown out in court,”
How often does that happen–he was one of the few actually getting raw data—so let us say he was using the most reliable technology available and I am assuming as he is an expert it was calibrated or what ever they do to make sure speeding tickets are not thrown out.
Anyway as far as I can see the Klimke and NZ videos with their who knows how accurate head cams sure do back up what he was saying as far as I am concerned. The big galloping stand alone fences might have been taken with speed but the big techincal fences and combinations saw sharp decreases in speed and klimke course mostly required that. And as far as the NZ video if you want to see a horse taking a flyer at a fence look on that face book page --magnificent amazing horse but the horse is really reaching to get across at least one stair step wide galloping fence. Amazing horse all I can say.
[QUOTE=Lady Eboshi;8167542]
“There is no data” because it costs time and money to produce, and frankly the UL adrenaline junkies don’t want or need it. Like Top Gun pilots, they’re willing to take the risk. And, for a lot of them, the rent or mortgage on their barn is riding on getting it done. Fallout? OH YEAH–I remember the whispered conversations around one event barn I trained at about how many horses thus-n-so sent weekly to a certain hunt kennel of reknown. These people generally do NOT have the “love-you-give-you-a forever-home-pet” mentality; horses are dollar signs and once they’re broken, completely expendable. Call Next! Platitudes blathered on EN for the benefit of the Pony Club hero-worshippers notwithstanding.
The people out-gassing on social media about the numbers of rotational falls are NOT the UL riders; it’s the adult-ammie recreational puddle-jumpers who are aghasted by imagining THEIR sweet Dobbin crashing through the air and maybe rendering themselves quadriplegics on the way to the compost heap.
My prediction is this is going to split to become two different sports; the lower levels will become slower, smaller, less technical, and ultimately safer as befits a recreational sport. The UL’s, for as long as they last in an animal-welfare conscious and litigious world, will be the exclusive province of professionals the way the Grand National or the Kentucky Derby are. High stakes, big money, life and death drama. [I]But the day the Olympics cuts them, and it will soon because of the expense and perception of elitism, they’re history. There simply isn’t the money to sustain that small, elite tip of the spear without the Olympic cachet.
I cannot see that as a “bad thing” for the 98% of riders and horses who want to enjoy a challenge but still see the sun rise tomorrow morning.[/I][/QUOTE]
I had to read this a couple of times for comprehension. A lot of meat there.
The bolded comment about sums all of this up and after 19 pages, makes the most sense.
The Italic simply because I agree and have had said similar in my own way.
I could take umbrage in the reference to puddle jumper ;), but then I realized that I’m proud to be one, a far cry from many who don’t even try. Also, if puddle jumper refers to training and below…man I am in good company :lol: A great read, great insights.
In response to the response to the bolded
"The people out-gassing on social media about the numbers of rotational falls are NOT the UL riders; it’s the adult-ammie recreational puddle-jumpers who are aghasted by imagining THEIR sweet Dobbin crashing through the air and maybe rendering themselves quadriplegics on the way to the compost heap. "
This is probably due to the fact that the UL riders have actually bothered to look at the FEI safety reports which indicate that BOTH the rate and instance of rotational falls has been steadily decreasing since 2004, with a 0.5% chance in 2004 and a .2% chance now. The steps the FEI is taking to make upper level eventing safer is WORKING. Are we there yet? No. Are we going in the right direction? Yes.
Unfortunately pesky things like facts do not agree with the agenda of the hand-wringers so they are summarily dismissed.
But isnt that .2 percent for rotational falls only compared to all starts (prelimiary and up??). It looks like 15 percent of all starters in 2014 in 4 * fell. I dont think they break out the percentage of rotational falls - The chart seems to also indicate 1 out 8 *4 starters fell from 2009- 2013? (this is page 5) I would think cutting down on falls might cut down on horse and human injury with rotational falls the most deaded type to prevent. The rate of falls do not seem to have come down signifcantly.
http://www.fei.org/system/files/FINAL%20StatisticsReport%202004%20-%202014.pdf
[QUOTE=Manahmanah;8170479]
This is probably due to the fact that the UL riders have actually bothered to look at the FEI safety reports which indicate that BOTH the rate and instance of rotational falls has been steadily decreasing since 2004, with a 0.5% chance in 2004 and a .2% chance now. The steps the FEI is taking to make upper level eventing safer is WORKING. Are we there yet? No. Are we going in the right direction? Yes.
Unfortunately pesky things like facts do not agree with the agenda of the hand-wringers so they are summarily dismissed.[/QUOTE]
Complacency much? And are those ‘facts’ the only problem with the sport? You can spin numbers a million ways; maybe many FEI riders are not familiar with that. Completely possible. But you are also making the leap that a descrease in rate and instance of just rotational falls is the only thing to consider when the question is asked - “What are we doing?” Validity?..
You do realize that most people on this board love eventing, right? There is a lot of passion? Some reason to remain postivite & we want the sport to move forward - not remain stagnant holding onto something that is not working. To improve - evolve. People in charge don’t like change, thats relatively normal, but any successdul person will tell you to embrace change - its a vital part of remaining relevent.
[QUOTE=goodmorning;8170555]
Complacency much? And are those ‘facts’ the only problem with the sport? You can spin numbers a million ways; maybe many FEI riders are not familiar with that. Completely possible. But you are also making the leap that a descrease in rate and instance of just rotational falls is the only thing to consider when the question is asked - “What are we doing?” Validity?..
You do realize that most people on this board love eventing, right? There is a lot of passion? Some reason to remain postivite & we want the sport to move forward - not remain stagnant holding onto something that is not working. To improve - evolve. People in charge don’t like change, thats relatively normal, but any successdul person will tell you to embrace change - its a vital part of remaining relevent.[/QUOTE]
I did not make that leap - the quote specifically was about social media and ROTATIONAL FALLS. Which was why I quoted the actual statistics on rotational falls.
The data is there and strongly suggests the improvements that have been taken are decreasing rotational falls and saving lives. We all know these are the most deadly for both horse and rider.
As far as other falls… I did say we are not there yet. The rate of falls has stayed fairly consistent over the past 10 years per the data. It would make sense that we address the most dangerous type and then consider the others. We are not there yet. As stated many many times in this thread we need more data on other types of falls. This doesn’t mean I think things are “OK” but a good portion of people in this thread and elsewhere steadfastly refuse to admit that a HUGE decrease in rotational falls is a positive trend. I don’t know why this is.
I am passionate about this sport as well. I think the gloom and doom without admitting anything at all positive is very bad for the sport. I think a lot of people discuss this from an emotional place with their minds already made up about the direction of things. I think in 10 years if we see similar decreases in fall statistics people will still be going on about how much more dangerous the sport is becoming.
It really turns people off to eventing. I want to see more participants, more studies, safer courses, more owners. This will not happen if we insist on poisoning the well from within. We have miles to go but change is happening. Why is this so hard to admit for some?
[QUOTE=omare;8170549]
But isnt that .2 percent for rotational falls only compared to all starts (prelimiary and up??). It looks like 15 percent of all starters in 2014 in 4 * fell. I dont think they break out the percentage of rotational falls - The chart seems to also indicate 1 out 8 *4 starters fell from 2009- 2013? (this is page 5) I would think cutting down on falls might cut down on horse and human injury with rotational falls the most deaded type to prevent. The rate of falls do not seem to have come down signifcantly.
http://www.fei.org/system/files/FINAL%20StatisticsReport%202004%20-%202014.pdf[/QUOTE]
The rotational falls are broken out under page 7 - “horse falls” in the last column. You will see a steady rate of decline over the past few years.
I agree 2014 was a bad year. There was a jump in regular falls across all levels with the biggest jump at the 4* level. I pulled out my laptop and am going to do some datamining to see why this is. I will make a casual assumption that this might have to do with the prolonged wet weather we had over the course of the season. One bright aspect to this from what I can gather from the report - the rate of horse falls did not spike along with the rate of rider falls. I am most concerned with horse falls, honestly. If the rider makes a bad decision to go out onto an overly wet course and falls off but no harm is done to the horse - they learned a lesson.
Will do a little digging and update once I can tell WHY the rate of fall went up 5% 2014 over 2013.
I know of someone who had a rotational fall last year cantering in a western saddle.
It’s not just about the jumps.
This is a great point. Was she doing something overtly dangerous or was it just a fluke? Horseback riding in general is dangerous. Earlier in this thread we discussed the dangers of doing such a simple thing as mounting. I know of a girl locally who severed her spine after falling when mounting when her head hit the mounting block. We do a dangerous thing. The more people who do it, the more people who will get hurt. It’s important we don’t scare people off of riding be a use of this.
OK I’m done with my datamining.
People say there is “not enough data” but there is, it’s literally right at your fingertips if you take the time to look at it. There was a huge spike in falls in 2014 from the FEI safety report.
This is where the falls happened.
(I hope this table parses correctly)
Event Riders Entered XC- FH XC FR Total Falls Fall percentage
ADELADE 14 0 2 2 14%
BAD 83 7 12 19 23%
BUR 65 5 4 9 14%
LUM 52 2 6 8 15%
PAU 35 3 2 5 14%
WEG 91 3 7 10 11%
ROLEX 60 3 4 7 12%
So now with actual data and facts we can ask a question - what was it about badminton specifically that caused only 3 in 4 riders to finish. Was it the weather? the course designer? Etc. This is much more constructive than mulling about and demanding someone else give us answers. This information is publicly available. It’s there for the taking if you just take some time out to look at it. Even if you don’t have advanced data mining and analytical expertise, just ask those of who have it to do it. I am happy to do this always. As are many others way more capable than I am.
I
And before we start on the “this doesn’t include national data” kick - the falls that spark these thread RARELY are about sally who fell on dobbin over a 3’ coop. Yes I know that can be dangerous too. I also do not feel that a horse or rider falling over a 3’ coop is cause for national or international concern. If it is a case of complete irresponsibility as was the case with the death of the Russian young rider with the unfixed portable at a lower level (there is a video, do not watch the video) this is absolutely a place where we must get up in arms.
We DO need more and better access to our national data. The current management has not been so good about this. We can request a change if we do it in a calm, collective and unemotional manner.
Are we interested in complaining or are we interested in change?
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