Ok this is going to ramble, because I have been in a mediation all day and am a bit tired, but, the problem is that not every stallion with a pedigree that seems to match a mare will actually PRODUCE well. So, until the stallion is proven to produce well with a mare of your mare’s type it is a huge gamble.
So, you don’t know if the latest young stallion is going to “match your mare” until AFTER you have the foal on the ground and often have started it under saddle.
You cannot just look at pedigree (or performance). You must look at the offspring over several years and with many types of mares and many different bloodline crosses.
Bottom line: There is always a risk. You just have to decide how “risky” you want to go.
When a 3-4 year old stallion shines at a stallion testing and shows extravagent gaits, many mare owners rush to breed to him thinking they can more easily market a foal from him than from an older, more well-established stallion.
And sometimes that is true, as there are many buyers who buy what is “new” and “hot.” But not all stallions reproduce as well as themselves. So, in a few years people start talking about the problems with the offspring of these stallions.
Now, that is fine if you sold your foal already. But not so good if you have held onto it and now find yourself with a 4-5 year old that has not lived up to the hype of the sire and no one wants.
On the other hand, if you breed to a stallion PROVEN to produce well with your mare’s type/bloodline - while you may not sell it as quickly as a foal, by the time it is under saddle you will have something highly desirable as a proven product.
Does that make sense?