2009 KY Derby 135th edition; final post-position/odds p28

[Glimmerglass]

Quality Road (as is in vogue these days with ranksing) surges into the Top 10 on many lists as the typical “flavor of the week” comes into play.

Then again let it be noted he is not nominated to the Triple Crown Although a relatively small check can and will be made out to rectify that.

Louisville Courier-Journal Top 10 for March 1, 2009

Horse: Owner, Trainer, Last Week’s Rank

1. Old Fashioned: Fox Hill Farms, Inc., Larry Jones, 1
2. Pioneerof the Nile: Zayat Stables, Bob Baffert, 2
3. Friesan: Fire Vinery Stables Larry Jones, 3
4. Dunkirk: Magnier, Tabor and Smith, Todd Pletcher, 6
5. Quality Road: Edward Evans, Jimmy Jerkens –
6. Hello Broadway: Elizabeth Valando, Barclay Tagg, 5
7. Patena: IEAH Stables, Richard Dutrow, 7
   8. Midshipman: Godolphin Racing LLC, Saeed bin Suroor, 9
8. Stardom Bound: IEAH Stables, Bobby Frankel, 8
9. Flying Pegasus: James Spence, Ralph Nicks –

Others (in order of votes received): The Pamplemousse, Desert Party, Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, Theregoesjojo, Giant Oak, Papa Clem, Warrior’s Reward, West Side Bernie, Imperial Council, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, Danger To Society, Silver City, Take The Points, Vineyard Haven, Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, Soul Warrior, Mr. Hott Stuff, Captain Cherokee, Brave Victory, Uno Mas.

(Obviously the poll, done for the Sunday print edition of the Louisville Courier-Journal, was done before the news of Midshipman’s injury and being off the Debry trail)

[Glimmerglass]

A youtube.com posted version of the 2009 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Feb 28, 2009 (4 min 15 sec)

Final field order

1 - The Pamplemousse
2 - Take the Points
3- Mr. Hot Stuff

Also ran (in order of finish): Bourbon Bay, Unbridled Roman, Smart Bid, Mark S the Cooler, Hi Flyin Indy, Tiz True and Balfour Park

Disappointing is the low number of people in person to see a very good day of racing in the sun: final Santa Anita Park Attendance was 11,770

[Filly85]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3917191]
Quality Road (as is in vogue these days with ranksing) surges into the Top 10 on many lists as the typical “flavor of the week” comes into play.

Then again let it be noted he is not nominated to the Triple Crown Although a relatively small check can and will be made out to rectify that.

Louisville Courier-Journal Top 10 for March 1, 2009

(Obviously the poll, done for the Sunday print edition of the Louisville Courier-Journal, was done before the news of Midshipman’s injury and being off the Debry trail)[/QUOTE]

I don’t know if he is just the flavor of the week;). He just became my number one derby horse, and a lot will have to change to knock him off that spot. I’ve found the horse that I was looking for. I just hope he’s not too rushed for the Derby, and that he will be nominated to the TC races!

It’s interesting that Desert Party isn’t getting a lot of notice either. I thought that horse looked nice in his last win.

[Glimmerglass]

Off the Dery trail: Notonthesamepage due to bleeding - when he recovers he’ll be doing well under 1 1/4 mi races.

As noted by the Paulick Report, Churchill Downs reiterated the field for this years running of the Derby - the 135th edition - will be a maximum of 20 starters.

CDI press release here - March 2, 2009 - ‘Safety Measures in Effect for Kentucky Derby 135’

Last year’s catastrophic breakdown of Eight Belles was the first of 1,710 horses to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Additionally Churchill appears to be now mandating across all their tracks - and this is unrelated to the Derby - that no horse can race on their courses who is based on calandar birth under 24-months. Previously the rule went by the “official racing age of 2”. That is a very good start …

The BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin rates the Kentucky Derby preps at the bottom of the link and its interesting stuff; example

Lane’s End Stakes: Proves little – Yes, Derby runner-up Hard Spun won it and Derby fifth Sedgefield was second in 2007, but last year’s winner, Adriano, looks to be more the type of winner this race will produce. The winner still needs to come back in a dirt race to shows if he’s a legitimate Derby horse.

Illinois Derby: Good – This race has a tendency to produce impressive winners and high Beyer numbers. But, with the exception of War Emblem when it was held at Sportsman’s Park, those big performances haven’t carried over into the Kentucky Derby. Ten Most Wanted, Pollard’s Vision, Greeley’s Galaxy, Sweetnorthernsaint, Cowtown Cat, and Recapturetheglory all were disappointments in the Derby after rousing victories at Hawthorne. But you have to think that could change with the right horse.

Blue Grass Stakes: Proves little – This race is OK as a Derby prep for proven dirt horses like Street Sense who have already shown they can at least handle Polytrack. Street Sense used defeats at Keeneland to prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. He was a shell of himself on Polytrack, but good enough to get something out of the race. But for Derby starters Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, and Big Truck last year, this race proved a disaster and did nothing to help get them to the Derby – none of them finished better than eighth. And the one-two finishers in last year’s Blue Grass both were up the track in the Derby. Unless you have a horse who has run well on Polytrack and dirt this race is a crap shoot as a Derby prep.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=justalittlex;3916637]
Delightful Pamplemousse story in today’s L.A. Times.[/QUOTE]

It’s a shame Julio Canani perhaps/may have took the celebrations a day later a bit too far …

Sierra Madre police pulled over Canani for an unspecified driving infraction. They asked Canani if he had been drinking; he subsequently failed a field sobriety test and was arrested.

Canani admitted he consumed alcohol during the races Sunday at Santa Anita, but disputes that his driving ability was impaired.

[Glimmerglass]

Gotham Stakes Saturday Mar 7 at the Big A

Another West Coast horse who did poorly on the synthetic surface is being shipped to NY for the Gotham in hopes to turn it around: Axel Foley who just was tranferred from trainer Doug O’Neill to Kiaran McLaughlin is going to try the dirt.

At 3, Axel Foley has run twice in Northern California, finishing second to Chocolate Candy in the California Derby and fourth to that same horse in the El Camino Real Derby. Axel Foley raced in blinkers in the El Camino Real but will likely have them removed for the Gotham, McLaughlin said.

McLaughlin was sent the horse by Singer, who has taken over ownership of the colt.

A field of eight is shaping up for the Gotham. In addition to Axel Foley and Mr. Fantasy, likely starters include Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, Imperial Council, Masala, Naos, and Russell Road.

At 1 1/16 miles the Gotham (Grade 3) will be the first graded test of Mr Fantasy who has won at that distance before. On Feb 1st he won an allowance at 1 1/16-mile on that same track breaking from post-position 10 and winning by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 97 Beyer. That’s a lot of talent!

[Glimmerglass]

The Pamplemousse for his win in the Sham Stakes earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103. While Quality Road earned in the Fountain of Youth Stakes a Beyer Speed Figure of 113

Next steps for this past weekend’s runners: per the Daily Racing Form Mar 2, 2009

Canani said The Pamplemousse would make his next start in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 4.

Take the Points, who finished second, and Mr. Hot Stuff, who was third, both have the Santa Anita Derby as their next likely spot, though Take the Points could ship elsewhere.

Trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, on Monday said Quality Road would either come back in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream on March 28 or await the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4.

Theregoesjojo, second in the Fountain of Youth, will come back in either the Florida Derby or await the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11, trainer Ken McPeek said.

Beethoven, third in the Fountain of Youth, will run next in the Florida Derby, trainer John T. Ward Jr. said.

Joining Notonthesamepage off the Debry trail could be …

Capt. Candyman Can (fourth) and This Ones For Phil (fifth) both disappointed in the race and may not continue down the Derby trail, said their respective trainers, Ian Wilkes and Richard Dutrow Jr.

[Linny]

Imperial Council will be ridden in the Gotham by Rajiv Maragh as Edgar Prado will be in Cali to ride Monba in the Big Cap.

Giant Oak had a mild mouth injury last week. He was listless and not eating and they found a fever. After he started to drool they looked in his mouth and found some sort of sliver and once it was removed he improved quickly. He’ll have strong gallops up to Saturday when he’ll train for the following Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. Prado (who didn’t drape himself in glory on this colt last time) won’t be named to ride. A new rider has not been named.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Linny;3919990]
Giant Oak had a mild mouth injury last week. He was listless and not eating and they found a fever. After he started to drool they looked in his mouth and found some sort of sliver and once it was removed he improved quickly.[/QUOTE]

Wow - spooky stuff Linny!

Friesan Fire continues to look great and remains somewhat overlooked in the frenzy for getting to the Kentucky Derby.

Preparing for the Louisiana Derby, Friesan Fire, with jockey Gabriel Saez aboard, worked [Monday Mar 2nd] five furlongs in 1:01 2-5. The time was what Jones wanted, though to him, Friesan Fire appeared to be running slower than that.

"It surprised me Friesan Fire worked that fast,’’ Jones said. He said that before he heard the time, he was ready to get mad at either Saez or the colt. After hearing the time, Jones was happy with both of them.

Others being pointed to the Louisiana Derby:

Risen Star runner-up Flying Pegasus; Lecomte runner-up Patena; Giant Oak, who had a troubled trip and finished fifth as the favorite in the Risen Star; Uno Mas, the third-place finisher in the Risen Star; Nowhere to Hide, who was fourth in that race; graded-stakes winner Terrain, who’ll be racing for the first time as a 3-year-old; Papa Clem, runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita; Free Country, coming off a fourth-place finish in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs; and Soul Warrior, who finished sixth in the Risen Star.

Silver City is a possibility for either the Louisiana Derby or the Rebel at Oaklawn Park.

Here is one of the key lists to watch - Graded Earnings as of Mar 2, 2009

The dollar amounts are much higher then they have been in recent recent years - so for example having $130k in graded money in mid April was pretty much a solid chance to get in. As of right now - before the Gotham, Fl Derby, Santa Anita, Akansas Derby, Illinois, Louisiana, etc which all have big purses - $120k gets you at 21st and looking in!

Again - one horse to win the Kempton kentucky race will get an auto bid so everyone else on that list is fighting for 19 slots

[Linny]

Several of the higher earners (like Midshipman) are out or have not yet raced and are questionable to get there. Square Eddie is not officially of the trail but is sidelined right now. Big Drama had a setback and missed about a month, and he may be better going short anyhow. Vineyard haven was dreadful in his 3yo debut and I am not convinced a horse can come from Dubai and contend in the Derby. Terrain has yet to race at 3. Capt. Candyman Can is doubtful to continue as the distances stretch out. That opens things up at the top, OTOH, there may be some fillies looking for spots as well.

[Glimmerglass]

Gary West’s Monday column gushed “Oh wow, Quality Road is the next superstar” to which I was just going to say Flavor of the week … but someone beat me to it

Gary West for the Star-Telegram 3-2-09 “More Quality in the NTRA poll”

And so what does all this mean? Well, for one thing, it means the Fountain of Youth was superlative. For another, it means that Quality Road, even though he has yet to race around two turns, probably should be higher than No. 4. And, for yet another, it means he could become a superstar.

From a blog commentator to the above column:

So one week you’re telling me Old Fashioned is a superstar. Then you tell me Imperial Council is a superstar. And now, it’s Quality Road. Who you gonna deify next week? It seems kind of silly to do a Horse of the Week list, which is basically what it sounds like you’re doing.

I think everyone should be prepared to hear the gobsmacked praise for the future winner of the Florida Derby, Gotham, Santa Anita, etc … yet one power performance does not a Kentucky Derby winner make. This Ones For Phil was held up for a time with that Beyer as the next Lost In the Fog/Barbaro/Big Brown/Street Sense … only to flop badly in a sprint race in Florida with an almost nil chance to be racing in the KY Derby.

This is why Friesan Fire - who has won multiple graded stakes - should get more praise.

[Glimmerglass]

IMHO one of the more “must see” Derby prep races will be Saturday …

$250,000 Gotham Stakes (Grade 3)
Saturday March 7, 2009
Aqueduct’s inner track
Race 9, off at 4:18 p.m. EST
Distance/surface: 1 1/16 Miles/Dirt

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey

1. Naos (KY), 116, Michael J. Luzzi
2. Russell Road (WV), 116, Travis L. Dunkelberger
3. Masala (FL), 116, Eibar Coa
4. Axel Foley (KY), 116, Richard Migliore
5. Mr. Fantasy (NY), 116, Alan Garcia
6. Haynesfield (NY), 120, Charles C. Lopez
7. Imperial Council (KY), 116, Rajiv Maragh
8. I Want Revenge (KY), 116, Joseph Talamo
9. Giant Ryan (NY), 116, Jeffrey Sanchez

Interesting to see West Coast rider Joe Talamo shipping out with ‘I Want Revenge’ and we’ll see how a decent synthetic runner, Axel Foley, does on dirt for the first time.

Enough said about Mr Fantasy and Haynesfield; a clearly interesting runner and dark horse is Russell Road, why? Because the Charles Town-based shipper who is 6 for 7 has done two-turns easily due to that West Virginia track’s bullring. His sire, the late Wheaton who died in a stall accident, has half-brother to Storm Cat.

Russell Road ventured out of West Virginia in his last start and won the Dancing Count Stakes, a six-furlong race at Laurel Park, by 1 1/4 lengths.

For a bit of trivia Russell Road, purchase as a yearling by Mark Russell, was originally registered as “It’s a boy Grump” but had a name change. Purportedly it is not after the owner by rather the street upon which his breeder is based. Go figure.

[rigoletto]

Are You An Expert?

I don’t mean to be snarky Glimmerglass, but you seem to be pretty sure of yourself. I admit that I know nothing about you or your qualifications as a handicapper. I also admit that I am extremely biased about one of these horses, but please stop calling Quality Road the flavor of the week. We raised him. Whether or not he even runs in the Derby remains to be seen as that is up to Ned Evans and Jimmy Jerkens, but for you or anyone else to call this talented young horse who ran his heart out last Saturday “the flavor of the week” is an insult!

In addition to living and working on the farm where Quality Road was raised, I worked on both his mother and her full sister on the track so I’m kind of “attached” to the whole family. The most important thing to me is that he (that all of these young horses) make it through this racing season healthy and sound. Of course, it’d be nice to keep on winning too…

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3923904]
Gary West’s Monday column gushed “Oh wow, Quality Road is the next superstar” to which I was just going to say Flavor of the week … but someone beat me to it

Gary West for the Star-Telegram 3-2-09 “More Quality in the NTRA poll”

From a blog commentator to the above column:

I think everyone should be prepared to hear the gobsmacked praise for the future winner of the Florida Derby, Gotham, Santa Anita, etc … yet one power performance does not a Kentucky Derby winner make. This Ones For Phil was held up for a time with that Beyer as the next Lost In the Fog/Barbaro/Big Brown/Street Sense … only to flop badly in a sprint race in Florida with an almost nil chance to be racing in the KY Derby.

This is why Friesan Fire - who has won multiple graded stakes - should get more praise.[/QUOTE]

[iloverocky]

I didn’t read the comments by Glimmerglass as critical of Quality Road. The comments were rightfully critical of the fickle racing press that has held up six to seven different horses over the last month or so as the second coming of Barbaro, Secretariat, Street Sense, Hard Spun, etc. Quality Road is a nice horse in a year that seems filled with some nice horses, but one race does not a super horse make and the press holding up every horse to win a race each week as the next Secretariat is getting a little ridiculous.

[rigoletto]

Well I did say I was biased so if I misread Glimmerglass’s comments as being critical of Quality Road when they were not then my bad - sorry Glimmerglass. I’ve known the horse since the day he was foaled so it’s tough to be objective… I’m this way about the ones who run badly too. There are a lot of nice horses this year so it should be an exciting season.

[QUOTE=iloverocky;3927016]
I didn’t read the comments by Glimmerglass as critical of Quality Road. The comments were rightfully critical of the fickle racing press that has held up six to seven different horses over the last month or so as the second coming of Barbaro, Secretariat, Street Sense, Hard Spun, etc. Quality Road is a nice horse in a year that seems filled with some nice horses, but one race does not a super horse make and the press holding up every horse to win a race each week as the next Secretariat is getting a little ridiculous.[/QUOTE]

[Barnfairy]

It’s official, then: Glimmerglass, you are Chief Blue Meanie.

As we head down the road to the Triple Crown every year, press, handicappers, and casual fans alike often have a tendency to glom on to a horse who puts in a great performance in a given prep race, only to seemingly forget about him when the next prep comes along. It’s really nothing personal against the horses. It’s more like Derby fever ADD.

[Calico]

Congratulations on raising such a nice horse, rigoletto! What a great experience

[Glimmerglass]

Yep - perhaps it was lost in the assorted remarks (and mine) that Quality Road did put in a great effort in FL, deserves the praise and will be a solid contender for the next Futures Pool with the Derby. Congrats on having a connection to him.

That said it does feel that every weekend when there is a quality field assembled the winner of that race becomes the big man on campus for at least the following Monday.

I can assure anyone that if say Mr. Fantasy wins convincing the Gotham this weekend, for example, that he’ll be held up as the next Big Brown who will almost certainly punch a hole through any field assembled on the First Saturday in May. That bravado will hold for about as long until the same writter sees the winner the Arkansas Derby, and then Florida Derby, and then Santa Anita Derby, etc …

The experts are not looking at this logically rather they are like cats dazzled by the next piece of glitter that moves. It doesn’t mean one of the Weekend’s Best contenders won’t win the Derby (a la Quality Road) but rather the feeling all too often is “what have you done for me lately” type of mantra with simply ranking the runners of today ahead of the runners of two days ago. Very short cited and not looking at the horse’s efforts over say their last three races to truly judge how they’ll do …

[Glimmerglass]

Wow - no contest: I Want Revenge (by Stephen Got Even) shipping in from Santa Anita trained by Jeff Mullins and ridden by Joe Talamo blew the doors off the field in the Gotham in the stretch.

Not even the very speedy - but otherwise never graded stakes experienced - Mr Fantasty could hang with that.

As Mullins said ‘Revenge’ was not keen on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface but clearly he likes dirt. It looks very good for them in the Kentucky Derby

Final order:

1 - I Want Revenge
2 - Imperial Council
3 - Mr. Fantasy

Balance of the field from 4th place back: Masala, Russell Road, Axel Foley, Naos, Haynesfield and Giant Ryan

No idea why neither HRTV or TVG could air the race live. Each claimed “due to contractual obligations” they had to air it on delay.

[Glimmerglass]

The Gotham vid is already on youtube

NYRA Video: Aqueduct Race 9: Grade 3 Gotham Stakes @ 1 1/8 mi