2009 KY Derby 135th edition; final post-position/odds p28

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3931373]
No idea why neither HRTV or TVG could air the race live. Each claimed “due to contractual obligations” they had to air it on delay.[/QUOTE]

Ray Paulick inquired with NYRA (after I asked him about it) here is the reply:

5:40 p.m. … Here’s the answer about why HRTV and TVG both showed the Gotham Stakes on tape delay. Fran LaBelle of the New York Racing Association tells us that “the rights to the Gotham are part of the Belmont Stakes agreement with ESPN/ABC. Although they chose not to broadcast the race, we did not get their OK for anyone else to show it live, so we asked both HRTV and TVG to show the race on a delay.”

How’s that for arrogance — not on the part of NYRA but by ESPN/ABC? They have the rights to televise a race live, but elect not to show it and don’t want anyone else to, either. Who gets the shaft? You tell me.

That’s just silly and ESPN should be taken to task. If they want to be a partner in horse racing that type of sabotoge stuff needs to be called out.

[Filly85]

The west coast looks very strong this year. I can’t tell if I Want Revenge moved up on dirt, or if the west coast is just strong. His time was definitely ‘racehorse time’ on that Aqueduct track.

Quality Road is my current pick for the derby, and I really, really like the horse. However, I do question the Beyer for his FL race. He ran a fantastic race, but I really feel that it was a bit high. On another note, I think that it may would be a mistake to ship Quality Road to the Wood Memorial. It would be much easier on the horse to race him over the track that he is proven and comfortable on and then ship him to straight to KY instead of shipping him all over the place.

And I agree Glimmerglass. What ESPN/ABC did is simply ridiculous.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Filly85’;3931976]
The west coast looks very strong this year. I can’t tell if I Want Revenge moved up on dirt, or if the west coast is just strong. His time was definitely ‘racehorse time’ on that Aqueduct track.[/QUOTE]

It appears ‘I Want Revenge’ will remain racing on dirt and on the East Coast as his next start will be the Grade 1 Wood Memorial again at the Big A on April 4.

[Filly85]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3931982]
It appears ‘I Want Revenge’ will remain racing on dirt and on the East Coast as his next start will be the Grade 1 Wood Memorial again at the Big A on April 4.[/QUOTE]

That was a very smart move by the connections on many different levels, IMO.

[Linny]

IWR had the “class edge” as he had been facing a decent bunch in Cali. He only lost the Cash Call Futurity (formerly the Hollywood Futurity) by a nose to Pioneerof the Nile. No one else in the Gotham has run against that kind of class. He looks like a horse that may be better on dirt than synthetic.
The Wood will be tougher though…

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Filly85’;3931976]
On another note, I think that it would be a mistake to ship Quality Road to the Wood Memorial.[/QUOTE]

QR is most likely going to race in the Florida Derby. The Wood is less money and just another course he’d have to get used to. Staying at Gulfstream and building upon his last effort makes the most sense. It’ll be a full field and likely stronger competition then the Wood but that’s what a good prep race is supposed to offer.

[justalittlex]

I remember the saddling area before the Cashcall. I thought both Pioneerof the Nile and (was it?) Bittel Road looked a little snarky: that lizard like walk where they have their heads low and swaying with a guy each side. But I Want Revenge looked pumped, proud and gorgeous. Just stood out of the crowd. So I bet him yesterday online, hooray, and hope his success continues. (even got the superfecta.)

I thought the gray running against Stardom Bound, Miss Silver Brook, looked brighter than SB in the saddling area. I remember last time seeing Stardom Bound and being struck by her intense alive babeness. Sounds silly but you get gut reactions to these horses even if you’re just a novice. But I think Miss Silver Brook got caught up in some bumping that created a steward’s inquiry. Was Berg Burg in that mess too? What was that exactly?

[Linny]

@Glimmerglass;3932017

QR is most likely going to race in the Florida Derby. The Wood is less money and just another course he’d have to get used to. Staying at Gulfstream and building upon his last effort makes the most sense. It’ll be a full field and likely stronger competition then the Wood but that’s what a good prep race is supposed to offer.

QR broke his maiden at AQU so he’s already won over the track. I think it’s mainly a difference in the number of weeks to the Derby from the last prep. The Fla Derby at 5 weeks has sent out Barbaro and Big Brown in the last 3 seasons.

[Glimmerglass]

Courier-Journal’s Top 30 as of March 8, 2009

[abridged]

1. Old Fashioned

2. Pioneerof the Nile
3. Friesan Fire
4. I Want Revenge [new to the Top 10]
5. Quality Road
6. Dunkirk
7. The Pamplemousse [new to the Top 10]
8. Patena
9. Hello Broadway
10. Desert Party [new to the Top 10]

Others (in order of votes received): Giant Oak, There g oes jojo , Flying Pegasus, Stardom Bound, Imperial Council, Warrior’s Reward, Papa Clem, Beethoven, Chocolate Candy, West Side Bernie, Rachel Alexandra, Silver City, Take The Points, General Quarters, Soul Warrior, Captain Cherokee, Charitable Man, Flat Out, Danger To Society, Wise Kid, Mr. Fantasy, Uno Mas, Markyg, Poltergeist.

Worth citing is that I Want Revenge as of last week was ranked #12* with his graded earnings position at $174,000; yesterday’s Gotham added another $150k to his pot. Which vaults him the 5th position with $324k … just behind Terrain at #4.

(* this assumed Square Eddie and Vinyard Haven are off the trail formally)

Stardom Bound (if she races in the Kentucky Derby) was already at #1 in graded earnings before yesterday and today she goes up another $180k to $1,770,000.

My guess is that since I Want Revenge will go into the Wood there will be a few NY-based horses like Haynesfield who (if they want to go to the Kentucky Derby) better start looking at a dirt track like Hawthorne for the Illinois Derby.

Mr Fantasy with 3rd in the Gotham only now has graded money: $25,000. Accordingly he’d better finish in the top 3 of the Wood Memorial or else scramble to another graded race to make it into the big dance.

[Glimmerglass]

Not to be forgotten is Old Fashioned who will race next weekend but also put in another wicked workout: Sunday morning five furlongs in a bullet 0:59 with Terry Thompson up.

Old Fashioned went first after the renovation break, and caught some unexpected company to his inside as he was going into the work at the five-furlong pole. He cruised alongside that one through fractions of 11.60 seconds for the opening eighth of a mile and 23.20 for the first quarter.

Old Fashioned disposed of the company approaching the quarter pole and found more traffic in the lane, as clockers continued to track him through fractions of 35.60 for three furlongs and 47.20 for the half-mile, then carrying him out six furlongs in 1:12.

[Glimmerglass]

The BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin was a bit critical of Joe Talamo’s ride on “I Want Revenge”:

This one time you can attribute his over-zealousness with the whip to youthful exuberance, but he has to remember from now on that the goal is for the horse to peak on May 2, not March 7.

The fact is, I Want Revenge had already put Mr. Fantasy away on his own and opened up by two lengths before Talamo even went to the whip, hitting him about a half-dozen times, then once again well inside the sixteenth pole when he was some six lengths in front. Finally, he put it away in deep stretch and vigorously hand-rode him to the wire.

While also praising the talent of the colt:

He demonstrated his ability to come home fast, closing his final three fractions in :24 1/5, :23 4/5, and :06 1/5. And he wasn’t even blowing after the race, which can be attributed in good part to all that stout, rugged Argentine and English blood in his tail-female family.

[Barnfairy]

@Glimmerglass;3933726

Not to be forgotten is Old Fashioned…

Not forgotten here! My eyes will be peeled…

[VirginiaBred]

@Barnfairy

Not forgotten here! My eyes will be peeled…

I must admit I scoffed at that remark myself! NO WAY will he be overlooked.

My #1 favorite. :yes:

[Glimmerglass]

I have to say that it is surprising that Hello Broadway is still sitting in the top 10 on many lists. No real knocks as per say but last out was his effort in the Hutcheson Stakes (G2) Jan 30th where he finished 2nd. Accordingly he has just $65,700 in graded money.

He’ll be in next weekend’s Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby ($300k total purse) but only a win vaults him up near a more safe dollar amount in graded money. It distributes $120,000 to the winner and only $60,000 to 2nd place. So if it fails to win and takes 2nd that tally of just $125k in graded money makes him vulnerable to not get a gate.

I don’t know if Tagg was planning on another graded prep race between the Tampa Bay and Kentucky Derby.

[Linny]

My guess is that Tampa is a stepping stone to the Wood. Tagg like the Wood, he’s won the last two runnings. In 2008 it was Tale of Ekati and in 07, it was Hello Broadway’s brother, Nobiz Like Shobiz.

[Glimmerglass]

A 10 horse field for Saturday March 14th $600,000 Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) at Fair Grounds. The all important graded purse is broken down as follows: $360,000 for 1st; $120,000 for 2nd; $60,000 for 3rd; $24,000 for 4th; etc

96th running of the Louisiana Derby Grade 2
Sat March 14, 2009 at Fair Grounds
Race: 9th off at 4:45pm local time
Distance/surface: 1 1/16 miles / dirt
Handicap: all carry 122 pounds

Post position–Name, jockey, trainer, ML odds
1–Free Country, Kent Desormeaux, Ken McPeek, 12-1
2–Soul Warrior, Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen, 20-1
3–Patena, Robby Albarado, Richard Dutrow, Jr., 7-2
4–Terrain, Julien Leparoux, Al Stall, Jr., 10-1
5–Flying Pegasus, John Velazquez, Ralph Nicks, 8-1
6–Giant Oak, James Graham, Chris Block, 4-1
7–Uno Mas, Brian Hernandez, Jr., Steve Asmussen, 12-1
8–Papa Clem, Rafael Bejarano, Gary Stute, 8-1
9–Friesan Fire, Gabriel Saez, 5-2
10–Nowhere to Hide, Corey Lanerie, Nick Zito, 15-1

[Glimmerglass]

Never say never, but it appears that Stardom Bound (f) will not be pointed to the Kentucky Derby but rather the Kentucky Oaks. This per her connections in the DRF 3-10-09

“She didn’t take a significant lurch forward,” Iavarone said Monday morning from his office in Garden City, N.Y. “We didn’t see enough for her to take on the boys, especially the quality of the boys who will be in the Santa Anita Derby, like Pioneerof the Nile.”

Instead of running in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 4, Stardom Bound could run that day in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, Iavarone said.

She received a Beyer Speed Fig of just 87 for her effort in the Santa Anita Oaks. By comparison I Want Revenge received a whopping 113 BSF in his first effort on dirt in the Gotham Stakes.

Other races this weekend which will in large part determine who is still on the Derby trail will be the aforementioned Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and also on Saturday March 14th:

Old Fashioned in the Grade 2, $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

Pioneerof the Nile in the Grade 2, $200,000 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita

General Quarters and Hello Broadway in the Grade 3, $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby.

[spooky01]

My pick-Friesan Fire

I really hadn’t found any horse to route for…but just got off the phone with a close friend of mine, who is living with Gabriel Saez’s in-laws for the winter. She was saying what a nice kid he was with a ton of ability, and Friesan Fire does have the potential to win the KD. So, I’ll be routing for FF this Saturday and the 1st Saturday in May.

[Glimmerglass]

As an aside - the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby will feature super-sized cards this year: Associated Press 3-10-09 “Extra races added to Derby, Oaks days”

Horse racing fans who want to attend all the races on Kentucky Derby day will need to arrive at Churchill Downs a little earlier this year.

The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission on Tuesday approved the track’s plans to add one more race to both Oaks Friday and Derby Saturday. That will mean Oaks day will have 12 races instead of 11. Derby day will have 13 instead of 12. Both race days will start at 10:30 a.m.

With Stardom Bound out of the Derby IEAH is banking any chance at being there on Derby with Patena - a horse that I couldn’t pick out of a lineup or identify if he was sitting next me.

3-10-09 “IEAH’s Derby hopes are riding on Patena”

“Patena would be our top prospect now,” said IEAH co-president Michael Iavarone. “With Stardom Bound, we’re focused on the Oaks.”

Patena either will take IEAH one step closer to a return trip to the Derby, or essentially take the high-profile ownership group out of the 2009 Derby running when he starts Saturday in the $600,000 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Good luck with that Friesan Fire, Flying Pegaus, and Giant Oak aren’t racing there as well just for the exercise.

[Glimmerglass]

Some background on next week’s Second Futures Pool wager with the first-time Exacta feature. Plonk ESPN 3-10-09 “Derby Futures get new twist”

The good thing about playing an exacta in the KDFW is that 24 wagering interest are offered here vs. 20 in the Derby. That means 552 possible combinations, 551 of which have to be losers by definition. More losing tickets means every winning ticket will pay more. By adding a mere four more betting interests, the number of exacta combinations actually rises 45 percent (552 vs. 380). Hit the exacta here and you should get paid. Of course, hit the exacta here and you should be anointed with a street named in your honor beside Churchill Downs.

If picking the proper pair is too steep a mountain to climb, there’s always the easy-by-comparison challenge of simply picking the Derby winner a mere seven weeks before post time.

The one restriction is you cannot bet the exacta by doing “all/all” but you could do for example Friesan Fire & “All Others”.