2009 KY Derby 135th edition; final post-position/odds p28

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Linny;3935348]
My guess is that Tampa is a stepping stone to the Wood. Tagg like the Wood, he’s won the last two runnings. In 2008 it was Tale of Ekati and in 07, it was Hello Broadway’s brother, Nobiz Like Shobiz.[/QUOTE]

Linny you are correct - Tagg was speaking to the TVG folks today and remarked if he does well this weekend at Tampa, then they’ll go to the Wood. If he does well there then its off to Churchill but typical Tagg (and thankfully so) he would skip the Derby if ‘Broadway’ flops in either race.

[Glimmerglass]

Thanks for playing but you’re off the Trail

Another once promising runner off the Kentucky Derby trail: Big Drama

… after consulting with Queen, Fawkes and the owner decided it was in the best interests of the horse not to push him to make the Derby.

“He’s doing well, but because of the missed time, the prudent thing to do right now is not to rush him to try to get a two-turn prep and make the Derby, even though we are assured of getting in,” said Fawkes. “We’re just going to take our time. I even postponed his regularly scheduled work last weekend. Tentatively, he’ll breeze again this Sunday, and if all continues to go well we’ll be looking for something shorter to bring him back, then point for some of the better races later this spring and during the summer.”

Plenty of money to be guaranteed a Derby starting gate, but another example of the connections saying they’d rather enjoy a longer career then just saying they started him in the Derby. Props to them for doing the right thing.

[Glimmerglass]

It will be too late to swap out Big Drama (who was named an individual pick in the 2nd KD Futures Pool) so his name will appear in the Pool opening tomorrow but you can’t pick him

So just 22-named option choices and 1-for ‘all others’

This will be the first time an Exacta option will be available with futures wagering.

You cannot pick “all others” & “all others” as a choice, despite the fact that it could be a possibility that someone wins and places in the Derby who isn’t identified as an individual name.

In the remote chance that happens (‘rest of field horses occupying both spots’) then the next-highest finisher listed as a separate interest will complete the exacta.

Anyhow it appears that I Want Revenge will have to be shipped back to California as opposed to staying in NY until the Wood Memorial on April 4th. That was what Mullins wanted but evidently there is a dispute:

Licensing issues for his help will force Mullins to ship I Want Revenge back to Southern California on Tuesday rather than leave him at Aqueduct as initially planned. Mullins said I Want Revenge will do all of his training at Hollywood Park before shipping back here a few days before the Wood, which will be run at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

As for Mr Fantasy

Mr. Fantasy, third in the Gotham after setting the pace, will run next in either the Wood or the $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne the same day, said Terry Finley, president of West Point Thoroughbreds, which owns the colt.

Finley said Mr. Fantasy would “have to run one-two in one of those spots to warrant taking the next step.”

I pointed this out on another board, but just taking 2nd in the Illinois Derby will only give Mr Fantasy about $125k in total graded earnings ($25k from the Gotham and $100k for 2nd in the IL Derby). To me that is likely too low to be assured of a start and they’ll be sweating it out until the last day for others to drop.

[Glimmerglass]

Santa Anita’s Saturday Derby prep:

$200,000 San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2)
Saturday March 14
Santa Anita Race 4, off at 2:03 p.m. PST
Distance/surface: 1 1/16 Miles / Pro-Ride

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey

1. He’s Really Big (CA), 115, Aaron T. Gryder
   2. Pioneerof the Nile (KY), 122, Garrett K. Gomez
2. Feisty Suances (CA), 115, David R. Flores
3. Shafted (KY), 115, Joel Rosario
4. Jeranimo (FL), 115, Brice Blanc
5. Kelly Leak (FL), 115, Victor Espinoza
6. New Bay (KY), 115, Joseph Talamo

[Glimmerglass]

The most current list of Graded stakes earnings as of Mar 12, 2009

Square Eddie is still listed at #1 but I’m pretty sure he’s not going, the same would hold true for a sprinter like #19 Munnings, and even possibly for Cribnote at #20 who I believe is still injured.

[Calico]

Doug O’Neill says Square Eddie is off the Derby trail, as he “stung” himself about a month ago and has a sore shin http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090207/SPORTS08/902070497/1002/rss07

But that’s ok - Eddie is a really really nice horse and could develop into a monster while the “Derby” horses beat each other up.

[Linny]

Many of the top 20 are unlikely. Cribnote is working but probably wont make it to KY. Munnings is a sprinter. Vineard Haven is not likely as he’s “not been pleasing” his connections in Dubai and is not going to the UAE Derby either.
There is plenty of money on offer this weekend and next. Horses that run this weekend (and possibly next) will have a chance of getting in another start before the Derby.

[Glimmerglass]

The fine line-up against Old Fashioned in Arkansas Race will be aired on HRTV

$300,000 Rebel Stakes (Grade 2)
March 14, 2009 Oaklawn Park
Race 10, off at 5:50 p.m. local time
Distance/surface: 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. Old Fashioned (KY), 122, Ramon A. Dominguez
2. Hamazing Destiny (KY), 115, Terry J. Thompson
3. Poltergeist (TX), 117, Quincy Hamilton
4. Pointing Home (FL), 115, Julio A. Garcia
5. Wise Kid (KY), 117, Jose C. Caraballo
6. His Greatness (KY), 117, Larry J. Sterling, Jr.
7. Captain Cherokee (KY), 117, Luis S. Quinonez
8. Silver City (KY), 117, Jon Court
9. Win Willy (KY), 117, M. Clifton Berry

Note who is riding perhaps the best chance to finish the exacta with OF: Animal Planet Jockey’s Jon Court aboard Silver City

[VirginiaBred]

@Glimmerglass

The fine line-up against Old Fashioned in Arkansas Race will be aired on HRTV…

Note who is riding perhaps the best chance to finish the exacta with OF: Animal Planet Jockey’s Jon Court aboard Silver City

Yep. That’s my other favorite. Silver City. Should be interesting…

[Glimmerglass]

Cross entered Nowhere to Hide will scratch from the Louisiana Derby and opt instead for the Tampa Bay Derby.

Fair Grounds stall superintendent Mario Torres confirmed that trainer Nick Zito did not use his spot on the Tex Sutton charter from Miami to New Orleans on Thursday morning.

When Nowhere to Hide is officially scratched on Saturday morning, a field of nine will remain for the richest race of the winter in New Orleans.

$300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3)
Saturday March 14, 2009
Race 11, off at 5:26 p.m. EST
Distance/surface: 1 1/16 Miles / Dirt

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey

1. Perfect Bull, 116, Dean Butler
2. Musket Man, 116, Daniel Centeno
3. Nowhere to Hide, 116, Alan Garcia, A 116
   4. Hello Broadway, 116, Eibar Coa
4. Warrior’s Reward, 116, Carlos Montalvo
5. Sumo, 116, Jeremy Rose
6. Join the Dance, 116, Elvis Trujillo
7. General Quarters, 122, James Lopez
8. Bear’s Rocket, 116, Ronnie Allen, Jr.
9. Justdontcallmejeri, 116, Jesus Rios
10. Top Seed, 116, Rajiv Marah

[Glimmerglass]

Eh, who else was little impressed by the effort (and I do mean effort as in working hard) by Pioneerof The Nile to win the $200,000 San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) - it should’ve been easy against a lightweight field. Yet he was pushed in the stretch very hard to pull out the win.

Expect his Derby “stock” to drop.

[justalittlex]

He barely squeaked in. Kind of a nutty day at Santa Anita. Did you see the monster long shot win ridden by Sorensen in race 3? And the payout? (sigh)

[Glimmerglass]

Yep - mega payout in that earlier Santa Anita race $160 or so for a $2 win

The G3 Tampa Bay Derby was full of upsets - all the favorites off the board

1 - Musket Man
2 - Join In The Dance
3 - Justdontcallmejeri
4 - Nowheretohide

It doesn’t bode well for Hello Broadway who was a non-contender for the finish as was local and heart warming story for General Quarters. Bear’s Rocket was already a Derby long shot but now I don’t know if many will wager on him for the futures.

[Glimmerglass]

Final: G2 $600,000 Louisiana Derby

This was an absolute smackdown on a muddy track by Friesan Fire - he won by 7 lengths

1 - Friesan Fire
2 - Papa Clem
3 - Terrain

(2 -3 were only about a head apart)

Patena the big IEAH hope finished 8th; with onlly $20k in graded money and adding only a few thousand more today I’d say try for the Illinois Debry in one last attempt or otherwise “thanks for trying” and sitting out the KY Derby

Folks may have discounted the Larry Jones horse as just being the “spare” runner but after this crushing on top of his other graded stakes wins you have to think he could win the Kentucky Derby if he gets a good trip. A top quality horse! Kudos to all.

[justalittlex]

Friesan Fire looked great, and I kept hoping California Papa Clem could hold on.

Tampa Bay turned out so strangely.

[TBJumper514]

Great win by Freisan Fire! Now, I’m waiting to see how Old Fashioned will do in a bit.

[justalittlex]

Winwilly beats Old Fashioned! Insane!

[Glimmerglass]

Holy Cow!

Win Willy, going off at 55-1, blew by Old Fashioned in the stretch from dead last in the run to the final turn. In the backstrecth they were a good 10-lengths off the field. Frankly I think Ramon thought he lost the rest of the field and was happily going along with just a tap or two to make sure Old Fashioned didn’t lug in. I don’t think Ramon ever saw them coming from ‘downtown’. Goodness!

That’s freaking nuts.

[VirginiaBred]

Holy Cow is Right!!!

[Filly85]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3947942]
Eh, who else was little impressed by the effort (and I do mean effort as in working hard) by Pioneerof The Nile to win the $200,000 San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) - it should’ve been easy against a lightweight field. Yet he was pushed in the stretch very hard to pull out the win.

Expect his Derby “stock” to drop.[/QUOTE]

I didn’t think he was impressive either. Although, he had to be ridden a bit funny in that race because there was absolutely 0 pace. Also, I think Baffert shouldn’t have ran him in this race. He is asking the colt to do a whole lot, especially if he is to run in all three TC races. He only has 3 weeks until the SA derby, turns around in 4 weeks and goes into the Derby, two weeks later the Preakness, and then three weeks later the Belmont. He just didn’t look as sharp in this one as his last, and may be a little tired.

Just a whole lot of races in a short period of time IMO, but you do have to fire when the iron is hot too.

Fresian Fire was awesome today, and I think a few others just stepped nicely into the Derby picture;)

The Cali horses proved that they are the real deal through I Want Revenge’s win and Papa Clem’s second. And the best from the west is still sitting chilly out there waiting to pounce in the SA Derby.