I’ve been looking at so many gorgeous power house horses today skipping from park to park, (as I’ve watched the bets go down the drain), and when I saw Old Fashioned walking around I thought, “Wow, this is the horse.” This horse just looks different from all the others. (except The Pamplemousse of course 
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[QUOTE=Filly85’;3948197]
Also, I think Baffert shouldn’t have ran him in this race. He is asking the colt to do a whole lot, especially if he is to run in all three TC races. He only has 3 weeks until the SA derby, turns around in 4 weeks and goes into the Derby, two weeks later the Preakness, and then three weeks later the Belmont.[/QUOTE]
I don’t know. I think Bob Baffert has a better idea of what it takes to have a fit horse for the Triple Crown–and what keeps you from winning a Triple Crown --than most trainers out there.
Anyone catch how many lengths it was back from Old Fashioned to the show horse? It looked like quite a few.
I think it’s pretty apparent that Old Fashioned has distance limitations and that he’s plateaued. The other Fox Hill horse looks like he can run though, and he’s certainly bred to cover some ground.
Not sure what to make of the Win Willy effort. There’s usually one or two of those ever year, by a horse that ends up being a non factor on the big day and often ends up running for a tag somewhere a couple of years later. Let’s see him string another onto that. Sure like his running style though, gotta love a strong closer.
Joe Drape of the New York Times makes the most unique (!) observation:
Earlier in the day, Pioneerof the Nile barely looked taxed, winning the San Felipe Stakes by a length and a quarter. Now, Pioneerof the Nile looks like one of the two strongest Derby contenders, with Friesan Fire.
Did he watch another race then I did with the San Felipe?
Regarding Old Fashioned:
Jones did not seem to know what to make of his colt’s first defeat in five starts.
“It’s hard to say what happened,” he said. “The track was heavy, and with those kind of fractions, it was bound to catch up with him.”
And regarding Win Willy, a $25k Keeneland September Sale purchase by Monarchos:
[trainer Mac Robertson] said entering Win Willy in the Rebel was a last-minute decision.
“I knew I had a closer, and we might get fast fractions,” said Robertson, who is based at Canterbury Downs, a second-tier track outside Minneapolis. “We could either run for a $30,000 allowance, or take a shot here and maybe pick up second or third.”
That’s why they call it horse racing 
Thoughts on Old Fashioned
I watched him running on a free rein, no contact at all so I don’t think his jock even tried to hold him back. I wondered if he would last. When you run second, it seems to me, it makes a great deal of difference if you are 'gaining on ‘em’, or ‘being left behind’. It seems to me he was being left in the dust. So I would agree with troubled trip. It wouldn’t necessarily drop him off my list, but this is the first I have seen him run. I still haven’t decided whom to ‘curse’ with being my choice yet! :rolleyes:
Video replay (youtube) Rebel Stakes Mar 14, 2009 at Oaklawn
Again I don’t think Ramon actually saw Win Willy until it was too late. I’m sure Larry Jones told Ramon to not grandstand and win by some huge margin, just take the victory and save some in the tank.
Maybe they needed Joe Talamo
Racehorses are taught to relax on a long rein. Loose reins are how they tell them to settle back. When it’s time to GO, they shorten the reins and “pick them up” a bit.
Ramon was 3 in front turning for home but went to the whip (lefty ala Scrappy T!) so I figured at that point that he was worried about not having nough horse. Rmon is known for not using “more horse” than needed to win and rarely wins by a big margin. If he was whipping at the top of the lane, he was worried.
[QUOTE=Linny;3949911]
Ramon was 3 in front turning for home but went to the whip (lefty ala Scrappy T!) so I figured at that point that he was worried about not having nough horse. Rmon is known for not using “more horse” than needed to win and rarely wins by a big margin. If he was whipping at the top of the lane, he was worried.[/QUOTE]
I for one cannot stand Ramon’s signature “windmill” lefty hits as they often result in a mount shying out - just IMHO. That said I think his numbers speak for themselves and he’s very accomplished.
In regards to Old Fashioned from Ramon:
“Don’t count (Old Fashioned) out,” jockey Ramon Dominguez said. “He still has something to learn.”
The remarks are not that he was out of gas, or gasping for the finish, or was flat out just beat by another horse. As Linny said it would be a vastly different story if Ramon was asking and asking and asking without response. Rather he was perhaps a tad overly confident and asked for “just enough” type of ride for a victory.
To think he’s just “an old fashioned sprinter” is quite incorrect
In the next leg there at Oaklawn the April 11th $1 million Grade 2 Arkansas Derby I’ll say this now: Old Fashioned will triumph and Win Willy (who is being pointed to the race) won’t be in the winner’s circle again.
Owner of Win Willy rejects $3,000,000 offer
That is nuts! At least he shared some of the wealth
Trainer, McLean Robertson, comments:
"I didn’t bet on him. The owner wagered on him, and gave some tickets to the colt’s groom, worth around $11,000. Yes, the groom was at the barn ready to go to work this morning, maybe not in the best of shape if you know what I mean, but he did show up and that was the important factor.
“(Win Willy) has a wonderful personality on the racetrack. Around the barn, he is a total jerk. He wants his own way. The owner lets me do things my way with the colt. I tell him that he can yell at me and that’s fine, but he lets me handle the colt my way.”
Maybe So, But…
A $3,000,000 offer is awfully hard to turn down, isn’t it? But what if the horse just happens to win the Derby? Not likely, I know - but this is horseracing and anything can happen. I’d take the money and ask to keep a small ownership interest in the horse.
[QUOTE=rigoletto;3951266]
A $3,000,000 offer is awfully hard to turn down, isn’t it? … I’d take the money and ask to keep a small ownership interest in the horse.[/QUOTE]
Exactly. That is the most logical thing to do. Negotiate a deal such that the current owner retains 25% or at the very least some breeding shares.
Look at the basic math and if he wins the Triple Crown, how much would a prospect make in purse money? Note the TC bonus no longer exists.
The 2009 Kentucky Derby (135th) is $2M in total purse; the winner last year received $1,451,800, which is then sub-distributed to the jockey, et al. The 134th Preakness is $1M in total purse; 60% to the winner so another $600k or so; the same for the 141st Belmont Stakes. So total cash if (and that is a such a massive “if”) is going to be under $3M.
Admittedly the horse would be worth tens of millions. However this is a horse that the owner himself though could just maybe get 3rd or so in the Rebel
This all begs the question: who would be desperate enough for a Derby contender that he/she/they would be willing to cough up the $3 million?
Hmm…
[QUOTE=GreenMachine;3951484]
This all begs the question: who would be desperate enough for a Derby contender that he/she/they would be willing to cough up the $3 million?
Hmm… ;)[/QUOTE]
Did the Dubai Brothers pay a mil or two for a Derby hopeful named Come On Mom (who?) a few years back? :eek:
The one race that will (unless there is an injury later) will produce a guaranteed Kentucky Derby starter:
Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes, Mar 18, at Kempton Park near London, England:
Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes, March 18, Kempton Park, £80,000
3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles, in alphabetical order, with trainer and jockey:
1—Agente Parmigiano, G. A. Butler, Shane Kelly
2—Akhenaten, M. R. Channon, Tony Culhane
3—Close Alliance, J. H. M. Gosden, Jimmy Fortune
4—Depose, J. R. Best, Steve Drowne
5—Haashed, M. Johnston, Jamie Spencer
6—Keeptheboatafloat, K. R. Burke, Darren Williams
7—Mafaaz, J. H. M. Gosden, R. Hills
8—Markyg, K. R. Burke, Fergus Sweeney
9—Mastery, M. Johnston, Joe Fanning
10—Shampagne, P. F. I. Cole, Martin Dwyer
11—Sohcahtoa, R. Hannon, Ryan Moore
12—Spring Of Fame, M. A. Magnusson, Chris Catlin
13—Talking Hands, S. Kirk, George Baker
14—Weald Park, R. Hannon, Richard Hughes
Slated to go off at 3:50 p.m. (EDT) and will be staged on the right-handed Polytrack course.
Of interest all horses will carry 129-lbs!
[QUOTE=GreenMachine;3951484]
This all begs the question: who would be desperate enough for a Derby contender that he/she/they would be willing to cough up the $3 million?
Hmm… ;)[/QUOTE]
Has happened before. Prince Ahmed bin Salman/Bob Baffert bought Empire Maker after his Illinois Derby win in 2002 and won the Kentucky Derby a couple of weeks later. Forget how much he paid, but pretty sure it was less than $3m though, maybe $1.5m or something.
$3m for a longshot Rebel Stakes winner seems like a lot, think the owners should have cashed in while they had the chance.
Could have been IEAH who have seen their Derby double dreams go up in smoke in the last two weeks. First Stardom Bound barely wins over modest company, then Patena stinks up the place in the Louisiana Derby…
He bought War Emblem. EM was owned and bred by Juddmonte, also owned by a Saudi prince, Khalid Abdullah.
More proof that The New Yok Times’ Joe Drape must be living somewhere else … hopefully it’s warm in that cave His Top 10 list
#9 - Win Willy: Mac Robertson is a sharp young trainer, and this son of Monarchos looked like his dad in the stretch of the Rebel.
Seriously?
By comparison, the remarks from The BloodHorse’ Steve Haskin
As for the 56-1 winner, Win Willy, there was no way to tout him coming off a six-furlong allowance score and never having been two turns in only three career starts. He broke his maiden in his career debut going 5 1/2 furlongs at Canterbury Downs. Even now, we have no idea how good he is. He stormed into the fray from far back and wisely was kept out in the middle of the track where Old Fashioned couldn’t see him. He switched to right lead on cue, but then jumped back to his left lead and then back to his right. …
And it’s interesting to note that Win Willy was born on April Fool’s Day, just to add to the wackiness.
The Louisville Courier-Journal’s Top 10 list as of March 17, 2009
(Last week’s rank in the top 10)
- Friesan Fire (LW # 3)
- Pioneerof the Nile (2)
- I Want Revenge (4)
- Quality Road (5)
- Old Fashioned (1)
- Dunkirk (6)
- The Pamplemousse (7)
- Desert Party (10)
- Papa Clem (new to top 10)
- Imperial Council (new to top 10)
Others (in order of votes received): Beethoven, Theregoesjojo, Terrain, Chocolate Candy, Giant Oak, West Side Bernie, Win Willy, Rachel Alexandra, Take the Points, Musket Man, Patena, Hello Broadway, Flying Pegasus, Stardom Bound, Capt. Candyman Can, Danger to Society, Al Khali, Just a Coincidence, Omniscent, Warrior’s Reward, Brave Victory, Charitable Man, Mr. Fantasy, Regal Ransom, Captain Cherokee, General Quarters, Silver City.
I don’t think anyone knows this for sure yet.
There is plenty that suggests that while he may be able to get middle distances no problem, a mile and a quarter would be beyond his range. But there’s only one way to find out, and that doesn’t come til Derby day.
Keep in mind Old Fashioned finished eight lengths ahead of the third-place horse in the Rebel - so this isn’t exactly the shocking down in flames type of performance some suggest.
His biggest problem was on display in that race: the inability to chill out and hang loose, then use that conserved energy to clobber whoever might be left.
The $1M Arkansas Derby will tell far more if Old Fashioned has learned his lesson and developed in “playing the game”. Comments from Larry Jones on the loss:
At Oaklawn, Old Fashioned suffered his first career loss in the Rebel. Jones said Old Fashioned was “very much on the muscle” on Sunday morning and would have a rematch with Win Willy in the Grade 2, $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 11.
“If we were going to get beat, this was the time to do it, because from now on out all races are worth a million dollars or more,” Jones said. “So, we move forward, and maybe that was just an off day for him. We’re not panicked.”
Jones said the quick pace “just kind of got to” Old Fashioned. He did not fault jockey Ramon Dominguez for engaging pacesetter Silver City with three furlongs to go.
“I don’t know that Ramon had a lot of options,” Jones said. “You know, Silver City is a very good horse and you would look ridiculous if you let him get seven or eight lengths out in front of you and then never caught him.”
Some next steps that are possible:
Musket Man, the Tampa Bay Derby winner, could head to the Illinois Derby, trainer Derek Ryan said.
Feisty Suances, who was second in the San Felipe, is possible for the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Darrell Vienna said.
Jeranimo, who was third in the San Felipe, could run in the Santa Anita Derby, the Illinois Derby, or the Blue Grass, trainer Mike Pender said.
Flying Pegasus, who was sixth, is going to “regroup,” trainer Ralph Nicks said, and is out of the Derby picture.
Pioneerof the Nile, the San Felipe winner, will come back in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 4.
Giant Oak, who was fourth in the Louisiana Derby, and Patena, who finished eighth, also are likely headed to the Blue Grass, their respective trainers said Monday.
Papa Clem, who was second in the Louisiana Derby, will ship to Hawthorne next week to prepare for the Grade 2, $500,000 Illinois Derby on April 4, trainer Gary Stute said Monday.
Friesan Fire will ship to Keeneland to train. He will either just train up until the Kentucky Derby or race in the Grade 1, $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11 to just get another race in him. They like to keep him busy and why not pick up a fat check
No word yet on Tampa Bay Derby flops General Quarters and Hello Broadway with next steps.
