2013 Kentucky Derby 139th Edition: congrats to Orb (Shug, Joel, Phipps/Janney)

[DeucesWild11]

You are not on glue! He came out of retirement this year

[ybiaw]

[QUOTE=DeucesWild11;6967676]
You are not on glue! He came out of retirement this year :)[/QUOTE]

That. Is. Bananas.

[ravenclaw]

[QUOTE=ybiaw;6967693]
That. Is. Bananas.[/QUOTE]
I’m sure I raised my eyebrows when I heard he was going to ride races again. But he has already had good results and won some stakes races (I think even a couple of graded stakes?).

[ravenclaw]

This morning, I checked the weather for Louisville and there is a 70% chance of rain on Derby day. That would complicate things a bit. Which of the runners are already proven on an off track? I don’t remember any of the major prep races being run on an off track this year (but I could be wrong).

[Glimmerglass]

Gary (50) has done “ok” with his return and when he was aboard Slim Shadey they won the Grade 2 San Marcos at Santa Anita Feb 9th. They’ll team up again in the race just before the Derby (#10) in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes Grade 1.

So far since his return (through 5/1/13):

Starts: 141 Firsts: 18 Seconds: 28 Thirds: 20
Earnings: $1,437,270 (ranking him 43rd in North America)

An interesting article on Orb breeder/co-owner Stuart Janney III whose silks Orb runs in (as opposed to the Phipps Stable colors):

Janney will fly to Louisville on Saturday and go straight to his seats without stopping by the barn where McGaughney and his staff will be enduring one of the longest waiting periods in all of sports.

“Shug knows what to do,” he said. “He doesn’t need me there.”

Janney is not at all disengaged. He spends his early mornings monitoring the horses in training and broodmare band before turning to his work for Bessemer. Though he travels frequently and spends most of the week away from Maryland, he enjoys that work and says he has given no thought to stepping down to spend more time on his racing interests.

“I guess I could do that,” said Janney, who serves on numerous boards, including two for Johns Hopkins alone. “But I’d get bored, I think.”

This week proves that the build up to a big race holds little allure for Janney. He may be a bit ornery on Friday as the tension builds, his wife Lynn said, but that passes quickly.

“If you could really pin him down and get to the root of it,” McGaughey said, “he’d say how much he wants to win. But you won’t be able to do that.”

If Orb does not win the Derby but stays healthy, Janney plans to go to Texas on Sunday for a business meeting.

If Orb does win, Janney plans to stay.

[Kenike]

[QUOTE=ravenclaw;6967960]
This morning, I checked the weather for Louisville and there is a 70% chance of rain on Derby day. That would complicate things a bit. Which of the runners are already proven on an off track? I don’t remember any of the major prep races being run on an off track this year (but I could be wrong).[/QUOTE]

I’m in the same boat. I like Revolutionary, but I’m honestly not sure how a sloppy track will play.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=ravenclaw;6967960]
Which of the runners are already proven on an off track?[/QUOTE]

I took a quick look at the PPs for the field. Those who have run on an off-track, in alpha order:

Falling Sky (1 time; won it)
Frac Daddy (1 time; placed)
Itsmyluckyday (1 time; won it)
Palace Malice (1 time; placed)
Revolutionary (1 time; won it)
Vyjack (1 time; won it)
Will Take Charge (1 time; off the board)

AE entry: Fear the Kitten (1 time; placed)

[Zevida]

[QUOTE=bdj;6967622]
I had the same thought this morning - hope this link works for you:

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=CD&country=USA&raceDate=20130504&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11[/QUOTE]

That did work, thanks so much!

[Glimmerglass]

An unplanned ‘blow out’ by Normandy Invasion this morning for his work - had to be caught by an outrider.

“Down the backside he tried to run off a little bit,” trainer Chad Brown said at the barn. “I broke his routine up a little bit taking him to the gate. He was great in the gate, but just a little tough to pull up today. He’ll have an easy gallop [Friday]; he’ll be fine.”

Video of NI’s work - note the large crowds on hand to watch

[Drvmb1ggl3]

Do NBC have plans to show the Woodford Reserve as part of their coverage? That’s the race of the day right there… two of the best horses in the world facing-off.
If they can’t manage to squeeze it in between celeb interviews, then they should be barred from ever covering racing again.

[NMK]

Well at 50-1 I have to make a play on Giant’s First. Not much value in the other two.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=NMK;6968116]
Well at 50-1 I have to make a play on Giant’s First. Not much value in the other two.[/QUOTE]

And to that hunch play comes this from the Daily Racing Form this afternoon: Even 50-1 shots on morning line have some hope

The last time Derby starters were 99-1 on the odds board was 2001, when Startac ran 10th at 102-1 and Arctic Boy was 12th at 102-1. Two of the last eight Derby winners were pegged at 50-1 on the program and roared home at precisely those odds: Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009).

However one Morning Line 50-1 runner this year - Falling Sky - had a scare with his jockey just within the hour: Per the tweets from Belmont Park:

Luis Saez just went down in spill at Belmont but NYRA reports he is OK. Saez due to ride Falling Sky in Ky Derby

[regret]

I am liking Black Onyx to place.

[DLee]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6968012]
An unplanned ‘blow out’ by Normandy Invasion this morning for his work - had to be caught by an outrider.

Video of NI’s work - note the large crowds on hand to watch[/QUOTE]

I thought it was interesting to find that Normandy Invasion has a history of breaking slowly, and from what I can gather they were training him a bit by making him stand in the gate (I’m guessing longer than he wished).

The reason I think it’s interesting is that I followed a lovely grey named Tapativity for two years (with a tiny hope of getting him when he was done) who was also a real dweller and who twice (once being his recent last race) refused to break at all. Wonder if it’s a Tapit thing?

[FatDinah]

Does anyone know if Lava Man will be coming as a pony?

[dressagetraks]

I saw - and admired, and bet on, and lost on - Tapativity in the last race at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. Gorgeous horse, looked a picture in the paddock. But he stayed in the gate. At least I had also backed the winner, so not a total loss.

You should have heard the man standing next to me, who had bet on Tapativity and apparently much more than I did. When the announcer said he had not left the gate, the man shouted, “Are you ****ing kidding me?” He ripped up his couple of tickets, turned around, and walked off, not even staying to watch the race in progress.

You might be able to get him cheap soon if that race is an indication. He did look wonderful.

[DLee]

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;6968449]
I saw - and admired, and bet on, and lost on - Tapativity in the last race at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. Gorgeous horse, looked a picture in the paddock. But he stayed in the gate. At least I had also backed the winner, so not a total loss.

You should have heard the man standing next to me, who had bet on Tapativity and apparently much more than I did. When the announcer said he had not left the gate, the man shouted, “Are you ****ing kidding me?” He ripped up his couple of tickets, turned around, and walked off, not even staying to watch the race in progress.

You might be able to get him cheap soon if that race is an indication. He did look wonderful.[/QUOTE]

He’s gone to an eventing home, as far as I know, they have my number if he didn’t. He is a gorgeous thing isn’t he? I saw him in the paddock at Keeneland and put him in my virtual stable and then followed him for two years. The last time he didn’t break was last June, the day he got claimed from Steve A.
One time I saw him leave at a walk, he was a chronic dweller for sure, and still won a bunch of money.

I think he wanted to come live with me.

[CVPeg]

[QUOTE=ybiaw;6967693]
That. Is. Bananas.[/QUOTE]

And he’s in amazing shape. Doesn’t look like a retiree!

[CVPeg]

Was listening to horse racing on satellite radio this morning - someone mentioned Rosie’s horse is meant for the mud! But he’s only been on a fast track. His Tomlinson figure is 331, but Normandy Invasion’s is a 415!

Edited to add: Orb’s is 405, Revolutionary 415, Will Take Charge 413, Oxbow 424, Falling Sky 402, many others in the high 300’s.

[CVPeg]

[QUOTE=DLee;6968277]
I thought it was interesting to find that Normandy Invasion has a history of breaking slowly, and from what I can gather they were training him a bit by making him stand in the gate (I’m guessing longer than he wished).

The reason I think it’s interesting is that I followed a lovely grey named Tapativity for two years (with a tiny hope of getting him when he was done) who was also a real dweller and who twice (once being his recent last race) refused to break at all. Wonder if it’s a Tapit thing?[/QUOTE]

Also on HRRN this morning - an interview with Ken McPeek. He talked about Java’s War tending to dwell in the gate. Said he has such a long hip, he really can’t do it any other way, and it works for him, so they aren’t trying to correct it.

He was a bit apprehensive about the switch from the poly to the dirt here, though.