2016 Preakness & Black-Eyed Susan

[snaffle1987]

Nyquist will not make the distance in the Belmont. Especially if a load of fresh horses show up and someone sends out a rabbit. If exaggertator’s connections were smart, they would skip Pimlico and go straight to Belmont and start training. That horse was made for that track.

I was confident with AP early in 2015 last year. the horse had the style, the stride, and the incredible will to run. We have not seen a horse with that much gas in the tank in some time. His ability to run (Happily!) at the front of the pack and then turn on the afterburners at the far turn, was second to none, no matter the distance.

Nyquist lacks gas in the tank at the top of the stretch and he pulls away but not in immense fashion and the field always seems to catch him by the finish line.

He is a great horse, a beautiful horse, but I do not see the talent that AP had or the endurance that he had and endurance is one thing that is a must for the Belmont.

Time will tell. If it pours buckets of rain at pimlico or Belmont, I don’t see Nyquist winning either.

[walktrot]

I tossed my 5 bucks in Exaggerator’s bucket at our Derby party and damn if I didn’t come close to winning. I couldn’t believe nobody else bet on him. Looking at the replay, he had a tough trip at the start, but really was impressive catching up with Nyquist. I’ll stick with him at the Preakness for sure if he’s entered.

[mommy_peanut]

[QUOTE=snaffle1987;8656327]
Nyquist will not make the distance in the Belmont. Especially if a load of fresh horses show up and someone sends out a rabbit. If exaggertator’s connections were smart, they would skip Pimlico and go straight to Belmont and start training. That horse was made for that track.

I was confident with AP early in 2015 last year. the horse had the style, the stride, and the incredible will to run. We have not seen a horse with that much gas in the tank in some time. His ability to run (Happily!) at the front of the pack and then turn on the afterburners at the far turn, was second to none, no matter the distance.

Nyquist lacks gas in the tank at the top of the stretch and he pulls away but not in immense fashion and the field always seems to catch him by the finish line.

He is a great horse, a beautiful horse, but I do not see the talent that AP had or the endurance that he had and endurance is one thing that is a must for the Belmont.

Time will tell. If it pours buckets of rain at pimlico or Belmont, I don’t see Nyquist winning either.[/QUOTE]

Curious why you think Exaggertator would do so much better in the Belmont?
The race historically does not set up well for true closers.

As for Nyquist not having enough “gas in the tank” that’s not what I see. I see a horse/jockey that do just enough to get the win without beating themselves dead. In everyone of his races regardless of how close the runner ups are crossing the wire, they still never get by him even in the gallop outs.
You are correct that time will tell…

[Shammy_Davis]

Everytime I see a horse whose pedigree says can’t make the distance I think of Palace Malice’s 2014 Belmont win. I truly don’t think current pedigrees tell us very much. In the last 4 or 5 decades, a great deal of speed has been bred into the American TB. It seems to be sorting itself out now. The problem is we are thinking like it’s the 50’s, 60’s, etc. Certainly calculating dosage is a waste of of time. I thought Nyquist, with his on the lead fending off the stalkers style of running, was what would exhaust him but nothing going into the far turn challenged him.

I don’t believe deep closers are good bet in the Belmont either. I don’t necessarily think Exxagerator can’t rate off the pace either. He might be a surprise in the Preakness too.

[Shammy_Davis]

Time to start analyzing the chances.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/211554/making-the-grade-nyquists-preakness-chances

[WhiteCamry]

[QUOTE=walktrot;8656904]
I tossed my 5 bucks in Exaggerator’s bucket at our Derby party and damn if I didn’t come close to winning. I couldn’t believe nobody else bet on him. Looking at the replay, he had a tough trip at the start, but really was impressive catching up with Nyquist. I’ll stick with him at the Preakness for sure if he’s entered.[/QUOTE]

My father bet him for $50 Win-Place-Show, and netted $90.

[Shammy_Davis]

Most derby contenders not traveling to MD. Suddenbreakingnews and Brody ’ s Cause looking at the Belmont. Forbes Magazine, mostly known as a financial rag, did a pretty good job on this article.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/teresagenaro/2016/05/14/2016-preakness-stakes-contenders/

None of the experts seem to like any other colt but Nyquist.

[SportArab]

I’d expect Nyquist to fare well in the Preakness, but not the Belmont.

[Shammy_Davis]

Rain in the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.

[Lord_Helpus]

[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8663670]
Most derby contenders not traveling to MD. Suddenbreakingnews and Brody ’ s Cause looking at the Belmont. Forbes Magazine, mostly known as a financial rag, did a pretty good job on this article.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/teresagenaro/2016/05/14/2016-preakness-stakes-contenders/

None of the experts seem to like any other colt but Nyquist.[/QUOTE]

SBN and BC are GII horses. They will fall totally off the radar after the TC and become 2 of the everyday good, but not top, horses. Actually, I think you can say that about most of the KD horses. I think this year is a pretty average bunch. Nyquist is a very nice horse, but in a year of good talent across the board, I certainly don’t think he would be undefeated.

The Beyers for this crop are miserable. When half the Derby field had not gotten a Beyer over c. 92 — there is not much to get excited about.

Even last year, there was little depth in the TC fields. Not sure why the crops are turning out a lot of average horses, but it seems they are.

[Shammy_Davis]

Only if we could relive the exciting horse racing that was the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s. When Steve Haskin retires memories of Needles, Dark Star, Native Dancer, Iron Leige, etc., will be buried in the archives for few to see and only the pedigree geeks to acknowledge.

We can only thank the good Lord and evolution that these great animals can’t possibly know what their Beyers are. Most of them would be demoralized.

[ravenclaw]

Has Nyquist raced on a wet/sloppy track before? That might be a factor if it rains on Saturday.

[Where_sMyWhite]

[QUOTE=ravenclaw;8668203]
Has Nyquist raced on a wet/sloppy track before? That might be a factor if it rains on Saturday.[/QUOTE]

I’d actually ask this of all the horses in the field (and I’m far too lazy to look this up ).

[hopashore1]

[QUOTE=ravenclaw;8668203]
Has Nyquist raced on a wet/sloppy track before? That might be a factor if it rains on Saturday.[/QUOTE]

Florida Derby was pretty wet.

[snaffle1987]

i thought exaggerator loved mud?

[Shammy_Davis]

Even at 3-1 on Exxagerator, the morning line likes Nyquist. Todd Pletcher ’ s charge in the outside post is talked about as a possible spoiler. The best money bet is probably Exxagerator. Every other colt is out in LA LA land, but risking on 30-1 colt in this race could be very satisfying indeed if a spoiler is in the field. I just don’t have a clue.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/nyquist-draws-post-three-3-5-morning-line-favorite-preakness/

[greenleaf]

Post time of 6:18 and 6:45 for the Preakness are shown on the world wide web. Why? Can we agree on a post time?

[Rackonteur]

What did I just miss? I was fixing kitty lunches.

83yo owner, veteran horse, turf race …

Anybody see it?

[Rackonteur]

Ben’s Cat is a beautiful boy!

[Sancudo]

Was it Ben’s Cat!?? I’m at work, but that horse has been the best part of Preakness week for almost a decade it seems!