I think the nod has to go to Accelerate since he ran and won in open company, and Justify did not.
I would say Justify. It’s not his fault his owners chose not to run him in the Breeders Cup. For such a lightly raced youngster to win the Triple Crown was such a huge deal earlier in the year, now it’s paling beside Accelerate?
Personally I don’t think either horse cares. It’s a human thing.
If I had a vote (which I don’t) I would vote for Accelerate. But I think they are both deserving of the HOY title.
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I will just add that if it were up to me I would choose the horse that most closely exemplified Eclipse.
But who runs 4-mile races these days?
Oh. Right. Tiger Roll.
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Eclipse raced in the 1700s. That’s like saying that the auto industry should chose the 2018 Car of the Year based on which one looks the most like a horse and buggy.
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TVG, in their musings, asks if American Pharoah had not won the TC just a few years ago, would this even be a question?
I am still on the fence. Justify yes, won the TC including the KD being unraced as a two year old. I would have liked to have seen him continue past the TC to see if substance was there or was he another flash in the pan?
Maybe Gunrunner or Enable (winning the Arc and BC Turf? 
) I know, I know, turf isn’t the game in this country 
Have to vote for Justify. I don’t think doing what he did would have been possible for anything but a truly exceptional champion. I do wish he had raced longer.
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My question thinking about this debate was:
Has a Triple Crown winner ever not won the Horse of the Year award in the year of his Triple Crown?
Yup-- Omaha did not win Horse of the Year in 1935; Discovery earned the honor.
I think some people tend to lose focus on what these (end of the year) awards should mean.
Theyre not meant to award the horse that had one good showing. As many times happens when a horse wins a BC race (Enable for example).
They are meant to award the horse (in their respected division) that has done the best/most throughout the WHOLE year.
For me, that is not Justify. Though I’m sure he’ll get the majority votes.
No doubt it will be Justify. But if I were voting it would be Monomoy Girl.
I think a 3 YO has to run against older horses to defeat an older horse who went 7-6-1 all year. If Accelerate ran poorly in the BC, maybe I’d go with Justify, but he did not, and was super consistent all year.
Last year’s 3 year olds, aside from Justify, were kind of meh, with the possible exception of Good Magic. I know a horse can only beat the ones entered in any given series of races, but IMO he faced weak opposition. I’d have to say Accelerate for HOY.
I think I am leaning toward Accelerate. He truly had a great year. The three year olds, Justify aside, were not a great crop.
And I am trying to believe that I am not prejudiced against Justify by the antics of his owners (which would not be fair, as the horse does not choose his races). I don’t think the Justify gang ever intended to race him after the Belmont, and in my opinion the puffy ankle story was just nonsense.
Justify had not been the soundest horse.
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I would vote for Accelerate.
No.
winning the triple crown is an exceptional achievement. Not many have done it. He deserves the title.
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It’s an interesting debate but as long as we want the TC to be the pinnacle of our sport I couldn’t vote against a TC winner for anyone personally. I am not really even a Justify fan, at least not like AP but he did what only 12 others in the history of the sport have done.
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Tell you what, I’m torn on it.
Historically, a Triple Crown win does not necessarily equal automatic HOY.
Soundness or not, undefeated Triple Crown winner is an impressive feat unlikely to be duplicated with frequency. Especially when you didn’t even race at 2 years of age.
Accelerate demonstrated marked ability and consistency in a largish yet weak older horse division. While he can’t control his competition, just how great are his accomplishments? Because undefeated Triple Crown winner has happened exactly twice in history; beating up on a bunch of older horses who may be eligible for NW3 conditions is far more common…
Of course, I’m always overly critical of the older dirt horse division and asking who they beat anymore. Unless you have some superstar geldings or a lot of unconventional breeding, we lose them to the shed as soon as they start showing ability.
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I have to agree, what tops a Triple Crown winner? Considering his inexperience and the ugly weather conditions he ran in for the first two legs of the TC, I think he was impressive. None of the other HOTY contenders won a TC. Winning in open company doesn’t mean the competition was necessarily better either.
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Another thing that strikes me about Justify is remarks from some others about him. People who have seen and even trained many champions.
Take D Wayne Lukas. Plenty of experience there. Before the Belmont, he was asked at a Bravazo workout how Justify could be beaten in New York. His answer: Be struck by lightning at the top of the stretch.
An issue of the Chronicle’s Untacked in 2018 had a story by Donna Barton Brothers. She’s been right alongside pretty much every TC race winner for years and years, as well as many BC winners. Her impressions of Justify were summed up as, from the POV of the competition, “What the hell can you do with that?”.
Then there was the comment I read about one of the clockers at Santa Anita, many years at that and no doubt all sorts of champions seen. This clocker was saying before the Derby thatJustify in his opinion was as good as Pharoah.
I wish he had raced longer. But for those thinking he was just meh, no big talent, only won due to a bad competition, look at what some people with huge experience were saying when they saw him race.
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