So besides not really knowing what to think of this tool, I find it very interesting. Looking for someone who may have experience using it and how it worked for them. I only want this information because I was recently considering bringing together a small partnership to purchase and breed a horse. In my hours of reviewing pedigree, I find a complete needle in the hay stack so to speak. In my attempts to find a stallion for her I am using this tool and low and behold I get a 20/20 Match rating on my screen, but even further impressing me on this horse I have seemed to find that no one really wants is how there are seven tabs of stakes winners to go through. Highest CSI was a 36 than 26 20, and then a bunch of 18 and so forth at the end of the 7th tabs it only goes down to 10. Can anyone put into perspective this information. Also, I am most likely going to buy her either way.
Welcome to COTH!
Many stallion farms offer G1 Goldmine to their clients as a mating tool. As with other similar tools–like widely-used TrueNicks for example–it is meant as a guideline and not in any way a predictor of success. It will tell you that genetic crosses similar to the one you are considering have produced some good horses. It doesn’t tell you how many horses were bred on that cross to produce the good ones it names (probably hundreds if you’re looking at a successful stallion). 20/20 Match ratings are not entirely unusual.
G1Goldmine also doesn’t take into account the quality of your particular mare, it only looks at possible genetic influences in her pedigree. Generally speaking, if you have “found a mare that no one really wants” there is a reason for that–possibly lack of talent, lack of family, physical problems, or any combination thereof. Breeding a good horse is hard enough. It’s my opinion that you’d be better off starting with the odds stacked in your favor.
The one nice thing about 20/20 matches is that several farms offer discounts for them…
Otherwise, what LaurieB said. :yes:
All of the major nicking programs evaluate sire lines, while the market values the female family. So there’s always that disparity… an “A+” nick or a 20/20 match is not going to boost value if the mare doesn’t have a strong produce history behind her (which I can’t say for sure without seeing her page… but if no one wants her, there’s a reason).
If you are planning to race the horse yourself, that’s not the end of the world… but if you ever need to sell the horse prior to establishing ability, it will have no value…
Thank you so much for your input. She has never raced, and while some people may not like that her pedigree is impeccable Northern Dancer is her Dams Grandpa. I know people do not like him that much but she also has some good boned horses in her pedigree as well. I am most impressed with how closely she resembles her great grandsire Halo. Though the seller for me is she is a female line descendant of the Flying Filly. She is only one thousand dollars, which is hardly anything considering how her pedigree is stacked. I know I live far from her and the cost to get her here is going to be more than she will be herself. Very big mare, floppy ears, and that eye that those special horses have. Honestly, I only want her to keep her and breed her. I have this feeling she could produce something special. That and about half the other mares I am constantly following that are capable of producing a remarkable runner.
Her name is Lucy Gold. She has not raced, but to me, the picture and videos are neat. She is a Canter horse. I think she is perfect… What do you think??
She is not perfect as far as confirmation, but a lot of horses that are great have not been perfect…I know her legs and her hoof angles are good. She seems to carry herself well. I do not know what it is about her, but I just love her.
Nowadays it is harder for find a ND free pedigree than one with him in it, that said, there is no registered TB by that name. I did Find a Lucy’s Gold. She looks like she would make a lovely riding horse assuming she is sound, definitely not breeding stock in my opinion.
Lucys Gold
My spell check auto deleted the s at the end of her name.
What makes you say that you do not think she can produce?
If I were you I would do a bit more research before buying any mare for a broodmare prospect. First of all, have a goal in mind.
Will you breed with the idea of selling or keeping the foal for yourself and training and racing it? If you are breeding to sell, is your goal to sell the foal as a weanling, yearling or two-year-old? Pick a scenario and run the costs through thoroughly. Make sure you have actual people lined up to do the work you cannot do yourself. This will range from taking care of the broodmare and all the vet care for her and the baby, birthing the foal, training to halter, and if you are going to keep it longer, training it to race. It will have to go to a training facility with experienced people in order to learn the basics, including how to break from a gate. You can’t do that at home you need an actual training gate to do it – basically, you need a trainer. The big barns use bloodstock agents to sell their Thoroughbreds. This is not only for marketing/attracting buyers and handling the actual sales process but for prepping the horse (I think it can take a few weeks) with grooming and handling so that the horse is fit and beautiful for the sale. Obviously, if the horse is a two-year-old the work will be more since the horse will have to be breezed, videotaped, x-rayed, and whatever else the agents do.
The biggest factors in your sale will be Black Type in the pedigree which showcases the dam’s side, performance/ability of the broodmare herself, and breeze time at the sale (if you are selling a two-year-old). Good conformation will be essential.
There are other things which can help your sales. If the foal or your mare is fashionable, that is, from a stallion which everyone wants, you will get higher prices. One way to help research is to look at statistics on average auction prices for the stallion you want to breed to or for popular damsires of the mare you want to purchase. Another factor which can help sell, but won’t get top dollar, is selling from a line of sound performers. If your mare raced, say, 60 times and finished in the money 50% of the time, buyers looking for a race horse rather than a re-sell horse will be attracted.
It’s not looking like there will be much Black Type from what I can find on Lucy’s Gold. The first dam, Mrs. Rosalie C., was last auctioned in 2001 and since the archives on the Fasig-Tipton site only go back to 2003, I cannot access that pedigree page in the sales catalogue. I’m sure there are other ways to find it, including paying for it. But looking at Mrs. Rosalie C’s performance and that of her offspring does not yield good results. Mrs. R raced 23 times with 1 first place finish, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds. Her career earnings were $26,481. She has had two foals, Lucy’s Gold and a gelding, Edged in Gold. Lucy’s Gold did not race and Edged in Gold has a race record of 10 starts, 0 firsts, 0 seconds, 1 third with lifetime earnings of $3,370. His race page on Equibase is not very encouraging:
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res…istry=T&rbt=TB
I have heard some of the experts here on COTH state two differing opinions about broodmare prospects. One opinion is that the mare should have some offspring which have produced at least $100,000 at the track. The other is that the mare should herself be a stakes winner to bother breeding. That is a high bar and lots of good horses come from mares who don’t meet that bar, but if you are looking to be successful, you should start with the very best broodmare you can afford. I know next to nothing about breeding and I would not breed Lucy’s Gold. Her owners are attempting to sell her for $1,000. She is a trained race horse. There is no reason to assume her offspring would bring more than her price. So buy her for a riding horse, or a pet, but don’t breed her.
Obviously anything is possible but her dam’s best foal earned 2k and her sire’s best foal earned 44k so it is very unlikely she will break that trend. The resulting foal is unlikely to bring a bid at auction unless you breed her way over her league which I wouldn’t recommend so that leaves you with racing the foal yourself. I think there are safer ways to spend your money. She is pretty though, I can see why you like her but that doesn’t make her a broodmare prospect.
Historically, the produce record of the female family has been the #1 most consistent indicator of a mare’s likelihood of producing quality racehorses. It is so important to racehorse buyers that when they are sold, their catalog page focuses primarily on the produce records of the damline, generally the 1st thru 3rd dams. The sire of the horse being sold gets a little blurb at the top of the catalog pages. Broodmare sires, while noted, don’t affect the value of the horse much. Buyers want horses who not only come from families who consistently produce runners, but they want those runners to be in the top quality stakes races (“blacktype”), so they actually have a chance of earning money with the horse.
Your mare’s 1st dam, Mrs. Rosalie C., was purchased as a yearling for $5,500, then resold as a two year old for $7,500. Here is her catalog page at the time. She earned $26K on the track in 22 starts. She ran in some of the lowest quality races there are in the United States and was not competitive. It costs more than $26K to take a thoroughbred from foal to race-ready,… so you have to understand, buyers aren’t exactly lining up to purchase horses that are going to lose them money. Someone likely lost a lot of money with her. It appears Mrs. Rosalie C. only had 2 foals-- your mare, who was unraced, and a gelding, Edged in Gold, who has hit the board once in 10 starts and has only earned $3,000. That’s a huge loss on investment.
Your mare’s 2nd dam, Sarasota Summer, was a slightly better quality runner. She earned $45K in her brief career, running at the allowance level in Kentucky. Even being slightly more successful as a racehorse, that didn’t help her career later in life, as she was sold as a broodmare in foal to a Grade 1 Stakes winning stallion for only $3,700. It appears Sarasota Summer only had a few foals, Mrs. Rosalie C. mentioned above and one more gelding who earned his feed bill but still was a low quality runner.
Your mare’s 3rd dam, Uvula, again produced nothing of noteworthiness. She was sold in foal for $2,500 late in her broodmare career.
Waaaay back under the 4th dam, there was a good family that has encouraged the careers of the mares prior. But that is going to be off the catalog page for the foal your mare would produce and is too far back at this point to help value.
History indicates that the best your mare might be able to produce is a horse that loses people money. No buyer is going to want that. It doesn’t matter who you breed her to or what kind of “match” you receive, you’re going to lose money on the mating.
Now, if you plan on keeping the foal for yourself… great! But you mention wanting to form a breeding/racing partnership-- savvy investors aren’t going to buy in to a horse from such a weak family of runners, so you’re already limiting yourself with potential partners. And heaven forbid your situation changes and you have to sell, you’re going to spend thousands of dollars breeding a foal who is going to be worth maybe $1000 to someone.
With all of this said, your mare is absolutely lovely. That dark coloration with the white is striking! And she has some sires behind her with reputations for producing stellar riding horses. With Northern Baby as her broodmare sire, eventing may truly be in her wheelhouse. Ride and compete your girl! And if she’s any good at it, you may find it much more lucrative to consider breeding her for sport down the road…
Lucys Gold looks like she would make a pretty riding horse, assuming she is sound. But I don’t see anything in her pedigree (or lack of race record) to indicate that she would be capable of producing a successful racehorse.
I apologize for my bluntness, but I don’t know how else to say this. It’s unlikely you would be able to sell a foal out of Lucys Gold to someone else as a racing prospect. And if you wanted to keep the foal yourself–even if you have tons of luck and cut every possible corner (which I do not recommend!) it’s almost impossible to begin with a mare and end up with a 2yo that is ready to race for under 30-40K. Which is why most people don’t start the process with a one thousand dollar mare.
@Texarkana where did you find the catalogue page on Mrs. Rosalie C.? I couldn’t find it on the Fasig-Tipton page. Also, if I look at the Stonestreet Farm site, I can’t figure out to to get to that page you linked.
PeteyPie, it’s Stone Farm, not Stonestreet.
Does this link work for you? www.stonefarm.com/pdfs/keesep-hip3907.pdf
@PeteyPie I just googled. Whenever I’m wanting a page on a horse, yet don’t want to pay/use up free Equineline benefits and the horse hasn’t been cataloged recently, I just google the dam and 2nd dam. You almost always find something worthwhile enough for assessment purposes (siblings, other offspring, etc. if not the subject horse). It was the first hit.
@Texarkana Thanks! I did google Mrs. Rosalie C. but I did not add her dam’s name. Good tip.
LaurieB, thank you. Actually, I misspoke, or I guess I should say, mis-wrote the farm name in my post, but I actually used the correct name when I clicked on Texarkana’s link and then just deleted all then end part in the URL to end up with www.stonefarm.com. Since I didn’t actually type that in but deleted stuff to get there, I forgot which farm it was, but thank you. I was trying to figure out how Texarkana got there in the first place because when I went back to Stone Farm’s main website there are no pull down menus which would take me back to the pedigree page on Mrs. Rosalie C.
Speaking of Stone Farm, what a coincidence that we are discussing this just a few days after the airing of that Dark Horses documentary about the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer competition which explained how Arthur Hancock came to start that horse farm.
That catalog page does look impressive if you only look at the 3rd dam but like others have said there hasn’t been anything at all since then and your foal would have your mare as the first dam so everyone else would move down a slot and the 3rd dam would fall off the page completely leaving it a barren wasteland racehorse wise.
The spotty produce records of the 1st-3rd dam’s is the nail in coffin for me, so to speak.
It’s bad enough that they produced no black type, but it looks like each mare only had a handful of foals. Of course, I’m basing this on PQ and the few catalog pages I could find. If I were truly interested in the mare for breeding, I’d pull the full produce records from Equineline. When the mares in the family only have 2-4 registered foals to their names, yet are going through sales late in their careers in foal and selling cheaply, I worry that you will see a produce record full of aborted foals and long, barren gaps.
I could be making too many assumptions, though.
